It has been nearly two months since the United States launched the "Prosperity Guardian" escort operation in the Red Sea, and the security situation in the Red Sea shipping lanes has not improved significantly. This has led to a gradual decline in the reputation of the US Navy around the world, and the United States has been caught in various positions because of the failure of the escort.
USS Mason destroyer on escort duty in the Red Sea].
It has been insisted that the problem lies in the lack of troops and a weak attitude. Biden should demand that the Pentagon continue to increase the size of the US military in the Red Sea, launch a massive military strike against pro-Iranian forces and even Iran itself, and make the latter abandon their support for the Houthis.
Others say that the problem lies in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. As long as Israel can end this conflict as soon as possible, there is no reason for the Houthis to continue attacking Israeli and American merchant ships in the Red Sea.
But in any case, the emergence of these positions shows that with the current capabilities of the US military in the Red Sea, they alone cannot achieve the originally planned strategic goal of "restoring the safety of the Red Sea shipping lanes". Therefore, when another factor capable of influencing the situation in the Red Sea was revealed to have changed, the outside world immediately turned its attention to them.
U.S. aircraft carriers carried out air strikes on the Houthis].
This factor is China, or more precisely, the 45th Chinese escort group deployed in the Gulf of Aden. There is unconfirmed information that the 45th escort group has begun escorting Chinese merchant ships across the Red Sea. The disclosure of this news has led many people to believe that China is changing its attitude on the Red Sea issue and has begun to stand with the United States. Maintain the safety of the Red Sea shipping lanes.
Theoretically, this is a real possibility. As today's world economy is highly dependent on the globalization network, the security of the Red Sea shipping lanes will directly affect the scale of China's foreign world. And this impact affects not only a range of goods exported by China, but also the various raw materials that China imports from abroad.
The Red Sea shipping lanes are responsible for 12% of the world's maritime **].
After all, China is known as an important heart for promoting the development of the world economy. But the heart also needs a steady stream of blood to function, and these sea routes are the "blood vessels" that connect the heart and blood.
Moreover, it should be noted that although the Houthis limit their attack targets to Israeli and American merchant ships, and conduct secondary screening of targets through visual inspection, drone reconnaissance and other means to avoid accidentally injuring innocent ships as much as possible, from the information disclosed so far, the Houthis have not accidentally injured merchant ships of other countries that do not meet the requirements.
But that doesn't mean the Houthi blockade hasn't had an impact on China. On the contrary, due to economic globalization, China cannot only rely on its own merchant ships to maintain the entire maritime ** network, but also needs to accept the merchant ships of other countries, especially large European shipping companies such as Maersk.
The merchant ships of these companies have already circumnavigated the Cape of Good Hope due to the Red Sea issue, and some of the additional costs incurred will inevitably be passed on to China.
Comparison of the distance between the Strait of Good Hope and the Red Sea Strait].
So, in theory, it is in China's interest to restore the security of the Red Sea shipping lanes, and it is indeed possible for China to take sides with the United States on this issue.
However, this conclusion is only a theoretical result based on economic interests. There are other factors and benefits that we need to consider when implementing.
In fact, although there are rumors that the 45th escort group has begun to escort Chinese merchant ships in the Red Sea, judging from the escort schedule revealed by these sources, the escort route planned by the PLA will still start and end in at least January. The Gulf of Aden does not cross the Bab el-Mandeb Strait into the Red Sea.
The escort mission of the semi-submersible ship "Tai'ankou" is still limited to the waters of the Gulf of Aden
For example, some time ago, official reports reported that the escort operation of the semi-submersible ship "Tai'ankou" of China COSCO Shipping Group was also carried out in the waters of the Gulf of Aden. A series of indications suggest that the claim that the Chinese Navy has begun to escort Chinese cargo ships through the Red Sea still needs to be monitored.
It is likely that we did not rush into the Red Sea because China sees other interests in the Red Sea that deserve more attention, such as the impact of the Red Sea issue on the United States.
Yes, the United States has also been quite negatively affected on the Red Sea issue, and this effect is significantly greater than that of China.
Escort formation escort plan, starting and ending in the Gulf of Aden].
Among other things, the aforementioned failure to escort and suppress the Houthis has caused America's reputation in the Middle East to plummet. The resulting series of secondary effects accelerated the decline of America's international influence.
At the same time, the decline in the density of merchant ships in the Red Sea not only caused many Western shipping groups to bypass the Cape of Good Hope, but also made many businessmen begin to transfer logistics from sea routes to China-Europe trains, which greatly improved the economic benefits of China-Europe trains.
These changes are enough for China to gain more from the Red Sea issue. In addition, the Red Sea shipping lanes are relatively safe for Chinese merchant ships, and China needs to maintain good relations with Arab countries and Iran as much as possible in order to increase its influence in the Middle East. The right to speak.
The 45th batch of escort formations of the People's Liberation Army performing escort missions].
A number of factors make it unnecessary for China to wade into this troubled waters. After all, we have already concluded who caused this. Watching the United States roll in this quagmire is the choice to maximize interests.
Of course, it cannot be ruled out that some changes in the situation in the Red Sea in the future will require China's direct involvement, such as the expansion of the mission area of the escort group to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea. But this is ultimately a question for the future. At this stage, China only needs to be prepared for a rainy day in the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea, while maintaining a presence to deal with various contingencies.