Ukraine's massive counterattack failed at the end of 2023, which sparked widespread concern and discussion. From a military point of view, there are two main reasons for the failure of Ukraine's great counterattack.
First, Ukraine is not exerting enough military pressure on Russia. There are usually two ways to achieve victory in a war: one is to take advantage of suddenness and disrupt the enemy's deployment and plans through a rapid attack; The second is to take advantage of the superiority and overwhelm the enemy with powerful military force. However, Ukraine's Great Counterattack failed to employ either of these two methods.
Ukraine is hyping its"Operation Great Counterattack"The times gave Russia plenty of time and preparation. By the time Ukraine officially launched its attack in June, Russia had built strong fortifications on the border. Even if Ukraine does not announce its plans in advance, Russia will not take it lightly, and they will speculate that Ukraine may make some moves.
Therefore, the big Ukrainian counterattack did not bring any surprise to Russia, but provided Russia with ample opportunities to defend itself. Since Ukraine was unable to gain a quick advantage in the early stages of the war, they could only rely on their own military power to confront Russia. However, Ukraine also does not have a clear advantage in this regard.
Secondly, the Ukrainian army is under-strengthened. In contrast, Russia has a much greater national and military power, and its industrial production capacity also surpasses that of Ukraine. Although NATO has provided some assistance to Ukraine, this aid is a drop in the bucket for the entire Russian battlefield. To make a breakthrough on the Russian battlefield, Ukraine will either need air supremacy to bomb or launch"Torrent of steel"like ground armored troops. However, Ukraine was unable to do so on any of these fronts, and their big counterattack ended up deadlocked.
In addition, the combat effectiveness of the Ukrainian army is constantly decreasing. Due to limited NATO assistance, Ukraine has had to rely on crowd tactics to sustain the war, resulting in the depletion of Ukraine's elite troops. At the same time, the newly recruited soldiers lacked good military training and had low combat qualities. Therefore, Ukraine had to proceed"National mobilization", a large number of soldiers were conscripted, but the combat effectiveness of these soldiers was very weak, which led to the gradual weakening of the Ukrainian army.
In addition to military factors, the development of the political situation in Ukraine and Russia's intentions also have an impact on the direction of the war. The current Zelensky definitely wants to continue the war, because war is the basis of his power. However, many people in the country are tired of the war, and there are also those in the Ukrainian leadership who want the war to end as soon as possible. Such internal and external contradictions will further affect the course of the war.
Overall, the failure of Ukraine's Great Counterattack was the result of a combination of factors such as Ukraine not exerting sufficient military pressure on Russia, insufficient military strength to confront Russia, a decrease in the combat effectiveness of the Ukrainian army, and a decrease in Western aid. In addition, the instability of the political situation in Ukraine and domestic opposition to the war also create uncertainty about the war situation.
In this context, the intentions of Ukraine and Russia will continue to influence the course of this war. In the future, it is necessary to pay attention to factors in the military, politics, diplomacy and other fields, and seek ways of multi-party cooperation to solve problems.