**The Meteorological Observatory predicts that from January 31 to February 5, the central and eastern parts of China will experience the longest and most extensive rain, snow and freezing weather since the beginning of winter. 10 provinces will have blizzard or heavy snowfall, Henan, Hebei, Shandong, Liaoning, Hubei and other places of daily precipitation or cumulative snowfall is extreme, Henan, Hubei, Anhui, Hunan, Guizhou 5 provinces will have freezing rain.
This round of rain and snow not only accumulates a large amount, is wide-ranging and lasts for a long time, but also has a large range and a long period of freezing rain, which is generally extreme and has a risk of disaster. This will be the most complicated Spring Festival weather since 2008.
From January 31, it will usher in widespread rain and snow.
*The Meteorological Observatory predicts that cold air will move south on the 31st, and widespread rain and snow will appear. At that time, the temperature in most parts of the central and eastern regions will gradually turn low, and the demarcation line of rain and snow will gradually press south to the line of eastern Guizhou, northern Hunan, eastern Hubei, and northern Jiangsu and Anhui. The area north of this rain-snow dividing line has mostly moderate to heavy snow, some areas of heavy snow or even heavy snow, and the south area has moderate to heavy rain, localized heavy rain, accompanied by a wide range of thunder and lightning. Among them, February 2-4 is the heaviest snowfall period.
The precipitation phase and the transition between rain and snow are complex. Judging from the current forecast, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the south of the Yangtze River are mainly rainfall, and there is a large range of thunder and lightning activities. The northern region will experience rain and snow transformation, especially the heavy snowfall in the central and eastern parts of the country from February 3 to 4, and there may even be a local heavy snowstorm; At the same time, there is also a wide range of freezing rain in some areas. Not only that, Jianghan, western Jianghuai, western Hunan, eastern Guizhou and other places may also have frequent transitions between rain and snow.
National precipitation forecast map. **Courtesy of the Meteorological Observatory.
The complexity is also reflected in the wide range of freezing rain. This will be the most freezing rain in the provinces since this winter, from February 1 to 4, there will be freezing rain in parts of southern Henan, Hubei, northern Anhui, central and northern Hunan, and eastern Guizhou. "Such a large-scale and northerly freezing rain is rare, and it is also a point that needs special attention in the process of this round of rain and snow. * Sun Jun, chief forecaster of the Meteorological Observatory, said.
Heavy snowfall areas are still likely to be adjusted, which is also the complexity of this process. Zhang Juan, a meteorological analyst at China Weather Network, said that from the perspective of the weather situation, there is a wide range of rain and snow, and the intensity is still very strong, which is very clear, but there are certain differences on the development of the Jianghuai cyclone and the future path. Especially after the Jianghuai cyclone moved northward on February 2, there is still a possibility of adjustment in the heavy snowfall area. However, overall, Henan and Shandong are likely to be the epicenter of heavy snowfall, and if the Jianghuai cyclone goes all the way north and is located northward, then the Northeast region also needs to pay attention to heavy snowfall. According to China Weather Network, this will be the most complicated Spring Festival weather since 2008.
Rain and snow are widespread, have a long impact time, and have a risk of disaster.
The rain and snow covered a wide range of areas, basically covering the entire central and eastern regions, and at the same time, the rain and snow lasted for a long time, starting from January 31 and lasting until February 5, for 6 days. Among them, the snowfall period in some places such as Henan and Hubei can be as long as 4-5 days, such as Xuchang, Nanyang, Henan, Xiangyang, Hubei and other places. The cumulative snowfall in Henan, Shandong, and Hubei is close to or exceeds that of the same period in history, which is extreme.
Why did the heavy rain and snow occur this time? Sun Jun introduced that due to the active plateau trough, the southern branch trough is deep, and the weather situation is high in the east and low in the west, which is conducive to the northward movement of warm and humid airflow, and at the same time, there will be a Jianghuai cyclone on the ground, strengthening and moving in the northeast direction, which is conducive to the formation of a wide range of heavy rain and snow weather.
Why did the rain and snow last so long? Zhang Juan explained that it was mainly because of the "tug-of-war" between the cold and warm forces. On January 31, the strength of the cold air affecting our country was not very strong, and there was a continuous cold air replenishment in the later period, and at the same time, the water vapor was also continuous, and the cold and warm air forces were equal, forming a confrontation situation, thus causing long-term and large-scale rain and snow weather. On the contrary, if the cold air is strong, like the last cold wave, it will push the rain and snow southward quickly, and the impact will not last long.
According to the forecast, after February 7, the north of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River will become clear, and the weather will be much calmer.
Rain and snow appear during the critical period of the Spring Festival and cover the north-south transportation hubs such as Hubei and Henan.
The core problem of this rain and snow is that it will affect the Spring Festival. Previously, the relevant departments predicted that there would be 9 billion people during the Spring Festival this year, and the total number of commercial passenger traffic such as railways, highways, waterways, and civil aviation would exceed 1.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 40%, and all three data hit a record high.
From the perspective of time period, the impact of rain and snow will be from the middle and late part of this week to the beginning of next week, which is the critical period of the Spring Festival; From a regional point of view, no matter how the heavy snowfall area changes later, the core area of rain and snow has central regions such as Hubei and Henan, and these areas are the transportation hubs connecting the north and south and the east and west in China.
Among them, Henan, as the snowfall center of this process, has an unusually large amount of snowfall, which needs to be paid great attention to. Judging from the precipitation forecast map released by the Henan Provincial Meteorological Observatory from January 31 to February 5, the accumulated snowfall in these days has been so much that it has "turned black".
Precipitation forecast map of Henan Province. **Courtesy of the Meteorological Observatory.
The last time there was a large-scale rain, snow and freezing weather with a large impact during the Spring Festival was the "overlord" cold wave in 2016, and then the rain, snow and freezing low temperature disaster process in the south in early 2008. Fortunately, according to the current forecast, this year will not encounter the same extreme conditions as in 2008, ** According to the meteorological observatory, the duration, low temperature intensity, and freezing range of rain and snow freezing are not as good as in 2008.
Henan, Hubei, Anhui, Hunan and other places should do a good job in the inspection of power and communication facilities.
On January 29, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the China Meteorological Administration jointly issued a snow disaster risk warning. The meteorological department reminded that most of the winter wheat in the northern winter wheat area is in the overwintering period, and the moisture is sufficient, and the rain and snow weather has no obvious adverse effect on the safe wintering of winter wheat. However, there is a risk of snow disasters in facility agriculture, and the snow pressure can easily lead to the deformation and damage of simple or old greenhouses, and the crops, vegetables, melons and fruits in the sheds are frozen.
The excessive precipitation in the south will aggravate the soil overhumidity in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and most areas south of it, which is not conducive to the recovery of rapeseed and economic forest fruits. All localities should strengthen the management of facility agricultural production, prevent the adverse effects of low temperature and strong snowfall, and do a good job in advance of shed reinforcement and thermal insulation and anti-freezing work; In areas with a large amount of snowfall, the snow should be cleared in time to prevent the snow from crushing the shed and causing damage to vegetables and fruits; At the same time, pay attention to reasonably adjust the temperature and humidity in the shed, and do a good job in the management of facility heating and lighting, fertilizer and water, so as to minimize the adverse effects of snowfall and low sunshine weather.
In addition, the degree of soil overhumidity in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and some areas in the south of the Yangtze River is aggravated, which is not conducive to the recovery of the growth of rapeseed and economic forest fruits that were frozen in the early stage.
At present, it has entered the peak period of returning home for the Spring Festival, and the rain, snow and freezing weather will have a greater impact on roads, railways, aviation, etc., and the areas with serious rain and snow impact are located in the central transportation hub provinces of China. Relevant departments in southern Henan, Hubei, northern Anhui, central and northern Hunan, and eastern Guizhou have done a good job in inspecting power and communication facilities. Jiangnan, South China and other places should pay attention to preventing geological disasters that may be caused by continuous rainfall and local heavy rainfall, and do a good job in lightning protection.
Beijing News reporter Wang Jingxi.
Edited by Zhang Lei and proofread by Li Lijun.