Recently, shipping companies Maersk (MSK) and Hanxin Shipping (HMM) announced their results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2023, respectively. In addition, the two shipping companies presented different views on the shipping outlook in 2024. 
In the fourth quarter of 2023, Maersk achieved operating income of $11.7 billion, down 34.7 billion year-on-year1%；Profit before tax (EBITDA) was 8400 million US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 872%；Earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) were a loss of 5$400 million, compared to $5.1 billion for the same period in 2022;Net profit was a loss of 4$600 million, compared to $5 billion for the same period in 2022;EBIT margin is -46%。
For the full year of 2023, Maersk achieved an operating income of $51.1 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 374%；EBITDA is 95900 million US dollars, down 73.3 billion year-on-year9%；The EBIT is 39300 million US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 873%；EBIT margin is 77%。
While the recent Red Sea crisis has led to ocean freight rates**, Maersk said the Red Sea problems have affected only a third of the company's ocean freight volume.
With the arrival of new shipping capacity ordered during the pandemic, it will overwhelm the impact of the Red Sea crisis. According to Maersk estimates, even if the Red Sea problems continue for a year, freight rates will return to pre-Red Sea shipping disruptions with record new ship deliveries.
For the future, Maersk**'s profit in 2024 could fall by as much as 90%, and EBITDA could be between $1 billion and $6 billion, far lower than last year's $9.8 billion, while its profit in 2022 reached a staggering $36.8 billion.
Maersk expects container shipping to face "significant oversupply challenges" in 2024, with the impact likely to extend into 2026. Maersk**, the company's global container ** will grow by 2 this year5% to 45%, which is equivalent to 11% of the capacity of the existing fleet entering the market.
South Korea's Hanxin Shipping (HMM) recently said that it managed to maintain profitability in the fourth quarter of 2023, which is in stark contrast to Maersk's performance.
In the fourth quarter of 2023, HMM's operating income decreased by 41% from the same period in 2022 to KRW 2,063 billion (15.).US$500 million), EBIT of 43 billion won (US$32 million), and net profit of 301 billion won (2$300 million).
For the full year of 2023, HMM achieved revenue of 8,401 billion won ($6.3 billion) and operating profit of 585 billion won (4.5 billion).400 million US dollars) and net profit of 1,006 billion won (7.00 billion).$500 million).
HMM didn't disclose its freight volumes, so it couldn't calculate its average freight per container, but it was clear that the South Korean company was above breakeven in the fourth quarter.
"Overall, the slowdown in demand and the influx of new-build container ships have led to the normalization of the container shipping market, putting downward pressure on global** freight rates in 2023," HMM said. ”
In terms of prospects, HMM said that "the Red Sea crisis is still ongoing and the severe drought in the Panama Canal has restricted vessel crossings", adding that this has led to "widespread uncertainty and market volatility".
For the prospects of the container shipping market in 2024, some analysts believe that Maersk** is too "too conservative" and downplays the impact of the Red Sea crisis on freight rates.
The analyst believes that the freight rates caused by the Red Sea crisis should be enough to avoid a loss in the 2024 fiscal year, even for Maersk.