During this year's Spring Festival, the Philippines frequently provoked China's Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea in an attempt to create negative impacts through provocative navigation during China's holiday season. In response to the Philippine approach, Chinese expert Liu Heping put forward his own views, pointing out that the Philippine provocation was not aimed at Scarborough Shoal, but for the sake of the PhilippinesSecond Thomas Reefto gain a greater advantage. He further proposed a solutionSecond Thomas ReefThe trick of the problem is to put up a blocking net around the Philippine landing ship in order to cut off the Philippine supply to the ship and achieve the effect of fundamentally solving the problem.
In the author's opinion, the Philippines' provocation of Scarborough Shoal existsFluke mentality。However, Scarborough Shoal has been fully reclaimed by China since 2012, and China's control over the area is sufficient to deal with any contingencies. In contrast,Second Thomas ReefIt is more advantageous for the Philippines, and in the process of entering Scarborough Shoal, they are intended to attract China's attention and contain China's large amountCoast Guardships, thus fighting inSecond Thomas Reefissues to gain more room for development. Second Thomas ReefThe problem is very important for the Philippines, and they urgently need construction supplies to reinforce the grounded landing ship, which is the only one that exists, and the Philippines is rightSecond Thomas ReefHope.
On the issue of the handling of the landing ship, the author has certain views for and against the plan put forward by the experts. It is indeed unrealistic to sink or tow the ship directly, however, pulling a barrage net around the perimeter of the ship has essentially the same effect as towing or sinking. Although China has the ability to carry out such interceptions, it will inevitably exacerbate the contradictions and conflicts with the Philippines, which may be desperate to force the card again. China did not choose to tow away or sink that broken ship, considerThe situation in the South China SeaIt cannot get out of control, and the Philippines will fall to the United States, which is very unfavorable to China. And a direct blockade of that ship would lead to ChinaCoast GuardMore needs to be mobilized to prevent itSecond Thomas ReefAt the same time, the Philippines will become more unscrupulous in its actions, further complicating the situation.
In view of the current situation, I personally prefer the consensus of the South China Sea consultation meeting held between China and the Philippines on January 17, that is, yesSecond Thomas ReefBoth parties should implement on-the-spot control measures as far as possible. Specifically, although the Philippines can still transport daily necessities into the countrySecond Thomas Reef, but ChinaCoast Guardand other vessels remain present and patrol the area as normal, and the Philippines is strictly prohibited from transporting construction supplies. Only through such control can we maximize stabilitySecond Thomas Reefand even the wholeThe situation in the South China Sea, which is beneficial for China.
The South China Sea issue has always attracted much attention, and the interests involved are complex and sensitive. When it comes to resolving disputes in the South China Sea, it is important to take smart control measures. The experts' observations and recommendations on the behavior of the Philippines are reasonable, but it is necessary to consider various factors comprehensively and maintain objectivity in thinking. Provocations in the Philippines do existFluke mentalityHowever, China's actual control over the South China Sea is strong enoughSecond Thomas ReefCompared to Scarborough Shoal, it is more attractive to the Philippines. Therefore, stabilizing the situation and avoiding escalation of the conflict are the most important tasks at present. In dealing with the issue of ships, it is a relatively prudent practice to take local control measures based on various viewpoints and interest factors, which can balance the interests of both sides to a certain extent and avoid further tension in the situation. However, in order to safeguard its own interests and maintain stability in the South China Sea, China must continue to fulfill its sovereign responsibilities and resolutely defend its territorial integrity. Ultimately, through firm positions and effective negotiations, we hope to reach a long-term and effective solution that will lead to regional peace and shared prosperity.