There are no winners in the all electric C Segment

Visual China.

Text |Wisdom drives.

But beyond the product, the real threat to the major brands may not be the Tesla Model 3 — the problem is that the all-electric C-Class seems to have hit the ceiling — something that even Tesla hasn't been able to change in the past few years.

In 2023, the highest-selling pure electric C-segment car in China is the Tesla Model 3, with annual sales of 1470,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 185%, but compared to 1510,000 units fell by 4,000 units. Compared to 13 in 202070,000 units is only 10,000 units higher than that, considering that this was three years ago.

BYD, which has made great progress in the new energy market in recent years, has also failed to break through this "ceiling", and BYD Han EV sales will reach 14 in 202230,000 units, more than the Model 3 of that year. But a year later, it fell by 265%, only 10050,000 units. And in terms of **, the Han EV is even lower than the Model 3.

The Model 3 and Han EV have been the two highest-selling pure electric C-segment sedans in the past three years, and even they have coincidentally come to a standstill, which may be due to two reasons: first, the industry is about to peak, and even the top models are growing sluggishly; Second, competitors have seized the market, resulting in a decrease in the share of head models.

After the new energy wave really starts in 2019, it is inevitable that "the industry has peaked" will come too quickly, is it really like Akio Toyoda said, "the market share of electric vehicles can only reach 30% at most"?

From 2020 to 2023, Tesla's Model Y sales in China will increase from 090,000 units increased to 6460,000 units, an increase of more than 700%. As a result, the Model Y has become the best-selling single model in China and even in the world. Even if you only look at the two years, the Model Y in the Chinese market has increased by 105% year-on-year.

Therefore, whether it is from the growth rate or the absolute number of sales figures, the same C-class pure electric car, SUV has not appeared in such a stagnation as a sedan, to say that "the industry has peaked" may be exaggerated.

So, will it be the second one?

In 2023, a large number of new players will pour into the pure electric C-class sedan: Zeekrypton 007, Geely Galaxy E8, AVATR 12, Chery Star Era ES, NIO ET5T, Feifan F7, and Huawei's Zhijie S7 have been released and listed one after another, plus the previously listed Xpeng P7i, Seal EV, Zeekrypton 001, etc., the pure electric C-class sedan market of 200,000-350,000 yuan has accommodated dozens of models. However, with the exception of the Model 3 and the Han EV, sales of all other models in 2023 will be below 100,000 units.

The 3-5 models in terms of sales volume are Hongqi E-QM5, Zeekr 001 and Seal EV, and their combined sales in 2023 will be 2180,000 units, slightly less than the combined sales of the Model 3 and Han EVs.

And in 2022, the combined sales of these three models will be 1650,000 units. In other words, the three models will grow by a total of 32% in 2023, which is higher than that of pure electric vehicles by 246% industry-wide growth rate. But the figure of 32% is not only lower than the 33 in China's new energy vehicle industryThe growth rate of 5% is also significantly lower than that of PHEV (plug-in hybrid) 847% growth rate.

It can also be seen from these sets of data that it may not be accurate to say that "the industry has hit the ceiling", and the pure electric C-class car market is still growing, but its growth rate is not only lower than the overall growth of the new energy vehicle industry, but also far lower than that of plug-in hybrid models.

So, to put it simply, the pure electric C-segment sedan market has seen too many players in the past few years, compared to only 24 last yearWith a growth rate of 6%, the growth of the cake is too slow and is no longer enough.

So, this raises a new question, why is the growth of pure electric C-class sedans so slow? And how can the market break through?

Pure electric C-class cars are not easy to sell, and the main reason is inseparable from product and market factors.

In terms of products, the shortcomings of pure electric vehicles in terms of battery life are still the core reasons why many potential users dare not start. For those who don't have a green license plate restriction and just want to buy a family car, rather than necessarily buying a pure electric car, battery life is an issue that cannot be ignored.

Most of the pure electric C-class sedans on sale today have a range of less than 700km, and it is known that this figure may have to be discounted at least. Fast charging solutions such as 800V architecture and 5C batteries have only been on the market on a large scale since the second half of last year, and it will take a long time for them to be popularized. For family users, especially those with long-distance needs, they have to hesitate about pure electric vehicles.

Furthermore, whether it's a large battery or an 800V architecture, it's much more expensive, and it's equally doubtful to pay more for the inconspicuous range and charging. Especially when the price of fuel vehicles in the same price range has begun to drop significantly, the shortcomings of pure electric vehicles are more prominent.

In the past year, the first war not only occurred in the new energy market, but also in the fuel vehicle market, and there was a fierce state of crushing price reduction.

According to the Automotive Consulting Platform data:

The official price of the 2023 Magotan is 18690,000 yuan-25390,000 yuan, the price of the whole system was reduced by nearly 40,000 yuan;

The official price of the 2024 Mercedes-Benz C-Class is 33320,000-3790,000 yuan, the price of the whole system is reduced by more than 70,000 yuan;

The official price of the 2023 BMW 3 Series is 29990,000 yuan-39990,000 yuan, the price of the whole system is reduced by more than 60,000 yuan.

The official price of the 2024 Audi A4L is 32180,000-39980,000 yuan, the price of the whole system was reduced by nearly 90,000 yuan.

When BBA's main sales models are reduced to the same price as Tesla Model 3 and BYD Han, I'm afraid everyone will hesitate.

In fact, the sales of these fuel vehicles last year surpassed that of the BYD Han EV, and the Mercedes-Benz C-Class and Magotan were even more than 30,000 units higher than the Tesla Model 3. Perhaps this also confirms the ridicule of netizens: "The 300,000 Mercedes-Benz C is old-fashioned, and the 200,000 Mercedes-Benz C is high-end."

Although the growth of pure electric C-segment sedans is not fast, the number of new entrants is still increasing. In December last year, the Xiaomi Su7 was unveiled, which is also a large pure electric sedan with a wheelbase of 3000mm. For Xiaomi, in the already fast-growing market, it is difficult to fight against Tesla, BYD, Huawei, Zeekrypton and other strong opponents, and it is difficult to stand out.

In fact, the C-class car is a high-level market, and the sales volume is not low, and it is also a brand highland, and the car companies that can gain a firm foothold in the C-class car market are often very strong in terms of comprehensive strength, such as Volkswagen, BBA, and Tesla. Therefore, as a place where new energy must be contested, many car companies have also put quite a lot of new technologies in this category.

For example, Zhijie S7 has Huawei's self-developed chassis and high-end intelligent driving, Xiaomi has a self-developed high-speed motor, and Zeekrypton has lowered the 100-degree battery to the price of 250,000 yuan.

The battery life shortcomings of pure electric C-class cars are obvious, and the large price reduction of fuel vehicles has also taken away a considerable number of potential users, so how can pure electric C-class cars break through?

Zhang Xiang, a visiting professor at the Yellow River Institute of Science and Technology, told CarViews that the current homogenization of the pure electric C-class sedan market has been serious, and the selling points of each product have a high degree of overlap, and more innovation is needed to promote the overall growth of the market. For example, solid-state batteries with longer battery life, cheaper sodium-ion batteries, high-end intelligent driving, full autonomous driving and other important innovations. "The key is to achieve 'no one else has what I have,'" Zhang Xiang said.

On the other hand, in the context of the war, car companies are in a dilemma: the war leads to pricing can not be too high, but innovation requires enough R&D investment, R&D investment needs funds, if the pricing is too low, car companies will reduce their revenue, it is easy to make ends meet.

For car companies, how to balance the two will be the key to winning in the future.