The Spring Festival stalls are over. The results are gratifying - the box office is 8 billion, and the number of moviegoers is 1600 million, breaking the historical record. But for fans, it is always lingering. The most lively Spring Festival stall in history was actually withdrawn by half. On February 14, "Let's Shake the Sun Together" announced that it would withdraw after the fifth day of the Lunar New Year, and it was tentatively scheduled to be re-screened on March 30. On February 16, "Mr. Red Carpet" announced that "communication failed", but when will we talk again? It is still unknown. 
After that, the remaining two animated films also announced their withdrawal, which made the jubilant Spring Festival file bleak in an instant. Some people ridiculed this: If you can't win, you will run, and you don't want to make money? There are also people who are angry: it is unfair for big fish to eat small fish. It is indeed not easy to analyze the tide of withdrawal. And not only because it's rare. More because——In a booming piece of data,It's getting harder and harder for us to see the truth. So today. Please allow sir to drain this "most lively" Spring Festival stall in history. As of the fifth day of the Lunar New Year. "Mr. Red Carpet" and "Let's Shake the Sun Together" did not break 100 million at the box office. placed in the Spring Festival stalls with a total box office of 8 billion, accounting for only 1%. 
*: Lighthouse Pro.
Many people say that this is the wrong schedule for a good film.
For example, "Mr. Red Carpet" talks about the absurdity of your circle, and ordinary audiences "can't understand it" at all; And "Shaking the Sun" is about fighting diseases, and the audience is not very likely to be the first choice for the Spring Festival. But the niche nature of the subject matter can't explain the anomaly of the box office. Because of the past Spring Festival files, even if it is a "non-mainstream" movie, as long as the reputation is passable, it may not be squeezed like this. The earliest to break through the conventional tone of the Spring Festival stalls was "Operation Red Sea" in 2018, where the war scenes were bloody and severed, but they were still a box office hit; Last year's Spring Festival schedule Cheng Er's "No Name" also has a strong author's style, and many people say they can't understand it; Tian Xiaopeng's "Deep Sea", the protagonist is a depressed little girl, which is also not in line with the atmosphere of the Spring Festival. During the Spring Festival, the daily box office of "No Name" and "Deep Sea" can reach more than 5 times that of "Red Carpet" and "The Sun". 
In fact, it was not that "Red Carpet" and "Shaking the Sun" chose the wrong schedule. Because for good films, striving for the Spring Festival file is not a blind fun, but a choice that conforms to market experience. So why is the experience of the past invalid this year?
In the bubble of good news, it's time to see the truth - first of all, the survival of theaters is more uncertain, and the film schedule is more cautious. According to "Poison Eyes", in the third- and fourth-tier cities of Dongying, Shandong Province, "Mr. Red Carpet" and "Shaking the Sun" have been seriously squeezed since the beginning of the Lunar New Year. 
For small cities, the Spring Festival stalls of large-scale homecoming are more important than any other schedules (including summer and National Day), and the income accounts for more than 30% of the year. Therefore, in order to ensure revenue, theater managers must give up all the screenings to movies with higher attendance. That is, the head player who is in line with the festival atmosphere and has exploded in popularity. So even if they don't withdraw the file, maybe "Red Carpet" and "Shake the Sun" will never have a chance to appear in small city theaters. Another key reason. It is this year's moviegoers who have ushered in a growth ceiling. The number of moviegoers is 1600 million seems to be very majestic, but it actually has a lot to do with the way it is calculated. The box office of the Spring Festival stalls is calculated according to the number of days off. The past holidays were from Chinese New Year's Eve to the sixth day of the new year, but the movies were only on the first day of the new year, so it was basically equivalent to only 6 days. There is no holiday on Chinese New Year's Eve this year, and the algorithm isFrom the first day of the first year to the eighth day of the first month, there are 2 more days. According to a Xiaohongshu blogger @benieal calculation, if you change it to the first day of the new year to the sixth day of the new year, the number of moviegoers in this year's Spring Festival stalls is actually 1300 million. At what level? Not as good as 1. in 20184.4 billion, 1. in 20193.1 billion, and 1. in 2021600 million. That's better than last year? But the objective situation must be taken into account - last year's movies were relatively long, and the number of screenings that could be arranged was 300,000 less than this year. 
*: Xiaohongshu bloggers@benieal comparing the attendance rate, this year's Spring Festival stalls are 32%, last year's 38%, and 2021's 43%, almost declining year by year. The head movie is too much discussed. is so high that people misjudge, the Spring Festival stalls are still a box office elixir. However, the negative growth of moviegoers and the decline in attendance are telling us that this year's Spring Festival stalls are far less prosperous than imagined. Just like when housing prices fall, it is always the third- and fourth-tier cities that can't sell first. In the same way, when the Spring Festival file is not ideal, the first to be sacrificed must be the waist and tail films. In 2021, "Hello! Li Huanying" is 5 billion, and "Tang Detective 3" is 4.6 billion, which divides 8% of the box office of the Spring Festival stalls, which is the first time that the "28 effect" has appeared in the Spring Festival stalls. But despite this, the fantasy action film "Assassination of the ** Family" and the niche literary and artistic "Crowded" can reach 1 billion and 700 million. 
Even in 2022, when the number of moviegoers is lower, "Pleasant Goat and Big Big Wolf" can gain 1600 million. 
What's more, "Mr. Red Carpet" Douban 68, Ning Hao and Andy Lau still have a strong appeal for people over 30 years old; "Let's Shake the Sun Together" Douban 79, although there is no top-notch, the subject matter is also aimed at young people. When such a commercial film with accurate positioning and excellent reputation will not be able to recover its original cost and will be forced to withdraw. This has been illustrated-The Spring Festival stalls are not working. This is no longer a time to lie flat and get meat to eat. One could even say. It has become the most fiercely competitive Shura field.
In the words of "Flying Gallop 2", it is "the death of drought and the death of waterlogging".As early as when the 8 films were finalized, the mainstream ** posted that this is the most lively Spring Festival file in history. But if you look closely, it's an exaggeration. 8 Spring Festival movies, 3 are animations. Among them, the 2 animations that were withdrawn are both small and medium-cost, the quality is really ordinary, and the audience is highly overlapping with "Bear Infested", which is not a refreshing work that can attract tap water like "Deep Sea". 
The remaining 5 live-action movies, although they all have good reputations, have surprisingly similar themes. I haven't seen obvious special effects blockbusters such as "The Wandering Earth" and "Assassination of the ** Family", all of which are small and medium-sized feature films. Except for 2020, when the pandemic broke out, this has not been the case in the past five years. Compared with last year's Spring Festival stalls. Due to the short backlog of the epidemic, none of the 7 movies scheduled for the season have overlapping themes. "Man Jianghong" suspense comedy, "The Wandering Earth 2" sci-fi blockbuster, "Exchanging Lives" romantic comedy, "Nameless" spy war action, "Chinese Ping Pong" live sports. Even if it is an animated film, there are "Deep Sea" and "Bear Infested" with different tones and audiences. This year's Spring Festival stalls may be the least tolerant of the subject matter. There will be no more dark horses to counterattack. Because the head films are all "products" tailored for the Spring Festival. As long as it is supplemented by error-free marketing and publicity, there can be no place for other films. Let's take it a step further. Why are this year's Spring Festival movies promoted in the direction of comedy? "Flying Life 2" has a lot of comedy components; Jia Ling's "Hot and Hot", although there are many comedians, there are actually more tears than laughs; "Mr. Red Carpet" is closer to the serious absurdity of Ning Hao's early works, and it is not a popular comedy. There is also Article 20. The more important background color of the movie is social criticism and case adaptation. But these labels did not appear in the early stage of publicity at all, but rather conservatively played the slogan "I love my home". Try to pack it as a family carnival. 
However, the early publicity did not release many funny clips, but focused on rendering Zhao Liying's bitter love drama, resulting in the audience having no definite viewing expectations, and the film schedule and box office have been at the bottom. 
Until the end of the holiday, with the word-of-mouth "realistic care", the box office counterattack was realized, and it has now surpassed "Hot" and "Flying 2" and promoted to the Japanese crown.
If "Article 20" was not a comedy in the early stage, but in the direction of realistic criticism, what would be the effect? The reality can be skinny. The film schedule may be even more abusive. The expansion of the Spring Festival stalls is accompanied by the shrinkage of movies. People are increasingly going to the cinema to consume a festive-related atmosphere. Rather than appreciating the movie itself. This year's New Year's Eve "Twinkle Twinkle Twinkle Star" launched a snow resort, and the topic was hot. The box office exceeded 700 million. But once the "season" is over, will anyone still pay attention to this movie? Judging from the daily box office performance, it is almost a "two-night stand".
If in the past few years, everyone's enthusiasm for watching movies has swelled, not satisfied with the Spring Festival stalls of the Chinese New Year's Eve dinner, and calling for more different styles of movies to adjust their tastes during the Spring Festival. Now, it's reversed. Maybe it's not that the demand has changed, but that the audience has also changed a group of people - it has become an audience that pays more attention to the pain points of "reality", relies on short ** to receive messages, and needs emotional stimulation every five minutes, which has become the foundation. So no wonder. Today's creators are already highly stressed. For a safe landing. can only conservatively put the "comedy" element in the most prominent position, hiding the real sharpness. In fact, "Mr. Red Carpet" was set for November last year, and then changed to January, and finally decided to be on the Spring Festival. One is that the film investment is as high as 200 million, and it is expected that 800 million will pay off. But from last year's National Day to this year's Spring Festival, the theater attendance rate was quite sluggish. Even if it is an annual blockbuster like "Aquaman 2" and "Wading in the Angry Sea", the final box office is only about 300 million. Therefore, "Mr. Red Carpet" chose the Spring Festival file, in a sense, it is also a helpless move. At present, "Shaking the Sun" has announced that it will be set for Qingming. Everyone says that this is appropriate - a ** death topic, a theme that stimulates the power of life. This conclusion seems to be fine. But in the past, what we expected from the market was not like that. We will criticize the overcrowding of the festival schedule, and call for high-quality films to be released on unpopular schedules to revitalize the market. It's like the 2022 Spring Festival stalls. When "Changjin Lake", as a mainstream blockbuster, crushed the box office champion, while other "make-up" movies were squeezed to the margins. When the survival of theaters is becoming more and more anxious, good films dare not be released on non-festivals. Jia Zhangke once spoke out for this unhealthy market structure
In the past few years, the successful genre is too single. For example, we rely too much on schedules, and movies are a cheap and normalized entertainment consumptionIn the past, the audience could watch one or two shows a week, but now it has become only available during the Spring Festival or popular schedules, which is abnormal.In fact, "Red Carpet" and "Shaking the Sun" chose to be on the Spring Festival stalls, not only for the box office, but also to make a good start for the industry. Ning Hao said that the schedule is shaped, I don't believe that the Spring Festival is only suitable for family carnivals, and it should show the audience something different. Han Yan also said, I think the movie is suitable for any schedule, and the market should have some differentiation. In the past year, the total box office of China's film market reached 55 billion. There is no place for imported pieces in the top 10. Is this a complete confidence in the culture?
Take a closer look - the size of the audience has dropped by nearly 600 million compared to 2019, and it is not even as good as 2021 when there was an intermittent lockdown.
Why is there such a big gap? Maybe it's the "differentiation" that Ning Hao and Han Yan said. For mature directors, it is not difficult to "customize" products for the festival schedule; It is not difficult to spend most of the investment on marketing that will stimulate the box office more. But if in our market, everyone only dares to become product managers, and only thinks about catering to the masses and mass-manufacturing disposable consumer goods, instead of pursuing creative development. So where does the future of cinema lead? In this year's Spring Festival, "Hot and Hot" occupies the center with a unique popularity. This is, of course, the success of the publicity, and it is also Jia Ling's personal charm. But what makes Sir feel dangerous is -When it comes back to movies, our comment space, how is getting smaller and smaller. Movie creators are not free. They have too many things to do, and they are more like anxious little bosses than craftsmen who are engaged in creation. Market, review, schedule ......Everything has to be considered, and if one is wrong, it will be like "Red Carpet" and "Shaking the Sun", and you will lose everything. Moviegoers are not free. When we walk into the theater, we are not necessarily attracted by the movie. More often than not, they are just paying for information cocoons and social currency.
What to watch, when to watch it, or whether you can watch the full version or not is not up to you. When you buy a ticket with real money**, want to maintain common sense, and call for a good viewing environment, it will be said to be "high". Cinemas are not free. The hardest time has passed. But survival is still unsettled - in the daily life of no festivals, ticket subsidies, and homecoming waves, the attendance rate is pitifully low. In order to survive, no one generates electricity for art anymore, and more film schedules have to be given to head movies with deep pockets. Even theaters are going to expand their business: live football games, lunch break services, ......We don't understand it more and moreWhy does it seem that the situation is good, but there is no way to go back to the past? Many movies have been introduced, but they don't seem to have been introduced. You won't be able to keep up to date with what they're up to. They can no longer be talked about freely. You still care about movies. But the film's performance, aesthetics, and story are becoming less and less important. than these.
Who can occupy the hot schedule. Who dares to spend money to fight for the film schedule. Who knows better how to convey the will of the mainstream. is the reason why a movie can be praised and awarded. Today, Sir not only wants to cheer for the withdrawn "Mr. Red Carpet" and "Let's Shake the Sun Together". I hope they are all in the right time to find like-minded audiences. At the same time, hopefully.
One day, our market will no longer be overwhelmed by praise for good and great achievements, and can tolerate criticism that is contrary to the ear, and all the rhetoric that is based on creation rather than correctness, and makes movies return to movies; One day, our films, no longer a carnival behind closed doors, can set sail, openly participate in global competition, and make progress together. At last. Please allow sir to reinvent what a director said at the Berlin Film FestivalMay we not be blocked from thought. It can also reach everyone who respects and cherishes movies.