In 2024The financial markets are about to usher in the final climax, and the final decisive battle.
The financial battle began in March 2022 when the Federal Reserve launched its seventh interest rate hike cycle in history. On February 24, 2022, the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out, and the Federal Reserve announced an interest rate hike in March. Next, a large amount of European funds were passively returned to the United States under the pressure of the clouds of war in order to avoid risks. In order to achieve the desired results of the financial war, the United States and its allies have used hegemonic means to use traditional functions to set fires everywhere in the world, create regional crises, and cooperate with the US dollar to raise interest rates to drive global funds back to the United States to avoid risks.
Actually,From the very beginning of this rate hike cycle, the Americans' goal has been locked in to meGuys, want to passFinancial Harvest ProgramKnock us back to a few decades overnight, and let's take a look at how the Americans operated.
First of all, let's blow up our offshore market.
Since last year, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index has been continuous**, in this way to transmit financial risks to the mainland market. Then Wall Street capital took advantage of the trend and sold short high-priced stocks. During this period, Japan** made great progress and returned to the first place in Asia, and India** also climbed all the way, surpassing Hong Kong stocks to become the fourth largest market in the world. After such a comparison, the rhetoric of denouncing China began to be loud. And this is what the Americans want, they are shorting China's financial market while pushing up the ** of Japan and India, leading our capital flight on a large scale, trying to copy the script of harvesting Southeast Asia in 1997, and pocket the fruits of our reform and opening up for more than 40 years. And that's just part of America's harvest plan.
The United States now has a whopping 33 trillion US debt. The continued interest rate hikes have also caused a second miraculous phenomenon in the United States, that is, interest rates have inverted, and the interest rates on bank deposits are even higher than the interest rates on loans. Anyone with a little common sense should be able to see that this distorted situation will certainly not last long in the United States. So why are Americans still holding on to raising interest rates?
In addition to harvesting important global strategic goals, the Americans also have another plan, that is, to detonate China's real estate market.
We are now actively addressing the hidden dangers of the real estate industry and striving for a soft landing. According to the data found so far, in 2021, the peak of real estate, the sales of the entire industry reached 18 trillion, and now this data has become 118 trillion. According to some institutions, the total sales of China's real estate industry are at least 60,000 or more. In other words, if the risk of about 6 trillion yuan is resolved, a soft landing can basically be achieved.
In the two years since the start of the financial war, Europe has experienced not only capital outflows, energy crises, and domestic turmoil, but also serious brain drains and deindustrialization. The fact that Europe itself is in shambles does confirm the saying that it is dangerous to be an enemy of the United States, and it is fatal to be an ally of the United States.
In the frenzy of interest rate hikes in the US dollarGlobal economies, including a large number of developing and emerging economies, have suffered a wave of harvestFor example, the economies and finances of developing countries such as Vietnam, Sri Lanka, Argentina, Brazil, and Turkey have been hit hard, with soaring inflation, a large withdrawal of domestic capital, depreciation of the national currency, and a heavy blow to the domestic housing market.
But the strange thing is that this operation is as fierce as a tiger, and so far it has not been able to achieve its expected results. The United States raised its sickle and reaped the harvest, but so far, apart from Sri Lanka, which has been completely harvested and laid flat, there is no other country in the world that has given up resistance because the country has been completely defeated. However,However, the United States and its allies, as the attackers, have repeatedly shown signs that they cannot bear it.
2022In the month, the European Central Bank continued to raise interest rates aggressively as the Federal Reserve led itled to successive crises in the UK pension and Swiss Credit SuisseIn the end, the Fed took the initiative to stand up with the European Central Bank, the Swiss National Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan for large-scale currency swaps, in fact, using the Fed's ability to print unlimited money as a backing to inject liquidity into the central banks of its allies, thus resolving the above crises in stages.
This is followed by the following year 2023In the month, the U.S. Treasury bonds fell sharply due to the continuous interest rate hikes of the U.S. dollar, and the U.S. bonds held by U.S. financial institutions depreciated rapidlyThey have reached the brink of insolvency, which has led to the bankruptcy of a number of less sustainable regional banks, including Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in the United States. At this time, it was the Federal Reserve that stepped forward and launched an emergency hedging tool for the so-called bank term financing program to solve the problem.
The essence of this operation is that no matter how much the US bonds fall in the market, the Fed is willing to provide emergency funds to US banks at the original price, so as to cover the asset risk of US financial institutions. These two operations can be regarded as temporarily stabilizing the risks of the entire system within the dollar system and its allies, including the pound, the euro, and the Japanese yen.
The two crises that erupted within the US dollar and its allies revealed that in this financial warThe dollar and its liability system have reached the limits of what they can tolerate。So when the time comes to 2024, what will happen next to this financial war that has lasted for nearly two years? Will the Fed quietly pivot to rate cuts?
Financial markets around the world are betting that the Fed will cut interest rates this year, and even before the first Fed meeting at the end of the month, there is a considerable amount of money in the market betting that the Fed will start cutting interest rates as early as March.
2024 is likely to be a year that will go down in history, and the United States is already in a state of flux.
Since 2022, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and the situation between North and South Korea have changed one after another, and the global order maintained by the United States for many years has been in full bloom and has exploded in many places. The domestic contradictions in the United States have also reached a point where it is difficult to conceal them.
The results of our industrial upgrading, the sales of automobiles, photovoltaics, and chips have continued to rise in the past two years, and China's automotive industry has reached a scale of 10 trillion yuan, and the photovoltaic industry has exceeded 15 trillion, the chip manufacturing field is also close to one trillion, give us some time, the added value brought by industrial upgrading can be done to smooth out the risk of the real estate industry.
After that, it will be the time when the offensive and defensive momentum of China and the United States will completely change, and our difficult days will really pass.