Entering 2024, Trump's election has been bullish, he has defeated all the candidates in the Republican Party, and it is a foregone conclusion that he will face off again with Biden. Although Biden has not given up yet, it is widely believed that Trump's approval rating is higher and his chances of winning the election are very high. China must now consider how to confront this reckless political bull once again.
During the election campaign, Trump never shied away from the issue of launching another ** war. He openly stated that he would continue to reduce the scale of China and the United States, cancel the "most favored nation" policy for foreign countries, and impose an average tariff of 10 percent on the approximately $3 trillion of goods imported by the United States every year.
The taxation of Chinese goods is even more frenzied, with some people coming up with the figure of 40%. But privately, Mr. Trump is said to have discussed with his advisers to raise all tariffs on China to 60 percent. This is basically to sever the economic ties between China and the United States. Economic experts on both Republicans and Democrats believe that if Trump were to put these ideas into practice, it would cause enormous damage to the U.S. and global economy, far beyond the impact of his first term.
Trump's platform includes many brilliant ideas, such as the use of flying cars to build "free cities" in different parts of the United States. But the main policies were the same as the first term, including a tough fight against illegal immigration, a mob crackdown, corporate cuts, and, of course, devastating tariffs.
A U.S. think tank called the Tax Council said that the war between 2018 and 2019 was hugely destructive, and if Trump intensified it, it could be subverted and global, and its destructive power would reach a level not seen in centuries.
In fact, Biden has largely continued Trump's tariffs on China, and the tariffs imposed on Chinese goods are already very high. At present, the statistics for 2023 are not yet available, according to 2022 data, the United States imports about $550 billion of products from China, with an average tax rate of about 12%.
Of those, $150 billion is subject to 25% tariffs on goods, and another $100 billion is subject to 75%, the remaining 2% or 3%. So Trump boasted that his tariffs added billions of dollars to federal revenues while boosting domestic industry. But during his tenure, the federal debt increased by eight trillion dollars, and Trump avoided talking about it.
If Trump does come to power and imposes 60% tariffs, then the Sino-US war will inevitably start in full swing. In November 2023, the U.S.-China National Committee commissioned a study by Oxford Economics, which found that ending normal relations with China would cost the U.S. economy 1$6 trillion and 700,000 jobs.
But Trump doesn't seem to believe in such a prospect. Mr. Gingrich, the former Republican speaker of the House of Representatives, said he had spoken to Mr. Trump, who firmly believed that he had the tools of tariffs and the world's largest market to deal with China from a position of strength.
So, it will be very difficult to expect Trump and his supporters to come to their senses. This is mainly because a significant number of people in the United States, especially white supremacists, do not believe that the failure of governance is their own fault, but have been victimized by China. So we have to face a dangerous scenario, the new Trump ** is killing himself at the same time, and at the same time, he will also pull China into the water.
In order to cope with such a situation, it will be necessary to seek and open up a larger foreign market through the Belt and Road Initiative and the BRICS mechanism. It is true that it is difficult to find a replacement for the US market of more than $500 billion immediately, but the rapid growth of Sino-Russian economic and trade proves that the rest of the world has purchasing power and can mitigate the impact of US arrogance and unreasonableness. We must be mentally prepared to survive a difficult period, and only by letting Americans suffer enough and suffer enough can China and the United States have hope of returning to normal.