Since the opening of the curtain of urban investment bonds in the second half of the year, the bond market has deduced an earth-shattering and big ** that can go down in history. Although the official plan is only a "package", as long as it is shot, it does not prevent the market from going crazy at all.
However, with the gradual fall of the three-board axe, the whole picture of debt has also emerged in front of the market. Everything has to be studied to understand. I opened the small composition and saw that there was no source for this small composition, and each page of the screenshot was written with the words "Bottom Cover" and "Faith", I couldn't sleep horizontally and vertically, and I looked carefully for half the night, only to see the words from the cracks, and the two words were written all over the book was "liquidation"!
To get back to the book, the package of debts may not only be the risk of bonds, but also the scale of local debts.
From the perspective of the three axes, the volume of trillions of replacement bonds is a drop in the bucket for urban investment debts, and what the market is really looking forward to is financialized bonds.
At first glance, the plan is really good: what if the bank loan is due? I don't pay it back, and I will roll it over! What should I do if the bond and the non-standard maturity are due? If you don't pay it back, the bank will be replaced!
However, you don't see, the easing of the outflow is accompanied by strict restrictions on refinancing, the severity of which is rare in history, as can be seen from the terrible outflow speed of net financing of urban investment in the past two months and various tutorials.
The carrot is followed by a ruthless stick, and when the debt meets the strictest refinancing policy in history, forcing the local government to smash the pot and sell iron to repay the debt is the most real intention. However, will this gray rhinoceros, which has been inflated for more than ten years, be obediently obedient?
The traditional analysis of urban investment is to use land income as repayment**, but this logic may only be for self-entertainment, think about when Chengtou really relied on selling land to pay off debts, and the main repayment of urban investment has always been only refinancing, and land is just a tool to leverage more refinancing.
For urban investment, the halving of land sales income may only hurt its skin, and the refinancing is the real move to its bones.
Looking at the case of a city in the park that was first seen earlier, for the 12 key provinces, the plan is very beautiful, but it may not be able to repay the interest due each year, let alone the principal that is repaid in 10-year installments.
The Caixin report over the weekend may have lifted the fig leaf of the urban investment cycle, and the reason why it can be financed at such a cost-free level is that there is no worry too much about whether the income of the invested project can cover the interest.
How dare you expect too much from now?
This dilemma is like the classic problem of water entering the pool in elementary school.
Q: The speed of the outflow of the outgoing pipe has dropped to 1 10 before, but one of the incoming pipes has been damaged due to disrepair, and the other has been closed directly... Now, how can I maintain the balance of the water level in this pool?
A: I don't really know, I hope it's just a stress test.
Of course, this is not yet to be seen in practice. The core of this plan is the bank. The bank and the place** can be described as the same bed and different dreams.
Not to mention the urban farmers, the thin body carried the hope of the whole village. As for the joint-stock bank, a market-oriented institution that bears its own profits and losses, it is thankful that it can count on holding its own children. As for the policy line, it stands to reason that you should be on it at this time, but you soon found that you have kicked the hard rock - compliance. If there were projects that were still non-standard, where would the face of the brothers who did project loans and corporate bonds be placed, and the lending advantages of non-standard institutions should be put in the first place. State-owned banks, on the other hand, are caught between political, profitability, and compliance difficulties. The drums are beating, the pressure is from top to bottom, and there are only a few landings, picking up and picking out a few barely usable uses to cope with the difference.
Not to mention the non-12 provinces, the benefits of debt are not enjoyed at all (except for a few fragile markets), and the whip of refinancing restrictions has indeed hit the body. I don't know how I feel now when I hit a swollen face and fill a fat person? Not to mention a large coastal province, trillions of bonds are suddenly not even allowed to be issued, how can a city have dozens of little brothers if they have a letter on the deadline. Fortunately, the surplus grain of the landlord's family should be sufficient, and he will be hungry for a while, but no one can bear it after a long time, let alone how to shoulder the responsibility of a large economic province?
According to this posture, the number of key provinces may soon be less than 12. The place found that lying flat and crying poor could usher in a warm embrace, gritting his teeth and greening himself, but he could only usher in a cruel reality. According to this posture, when the safety period ends, you may face a debt pattern with a worse financing structure and more tricky, and you may find that you have to hold it like this forever.
Of course, the above analysis is immune to bond investors. The bond seems to have won a gold medal for avoiding death, the body was sent to the ICU, the face is still strong outside, and the investors are pouring tea and water around this face, worshipping like a god, how can they care about how dangerous the surgery in the ICU is.