"We are in the midst of a globalization plateauing. Pierre-Olivier Gurancha, chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said in response to a question from a CBN reporter. Guransha does not believe that the world is in a period of so-called "deglobalization" in which the size of the global economy is declining.
On the 30th local time, the IMF held a press conference on the "World Economic Outlook" report in Johannesburg, South Africa. In the report, the IMF warned that increasing distortions and geoeconomics are likely to continue to affect global levels. The IMF expects the world's growth rate to be 33% and 3 in 20256%, down from 4Historical average growth rate of 9%.
According to the Global Alert data, countries implemented about 3,200 new restrictions in 2022 and 3,000 in 2023, up from about 1,100 in 2019.
"These measures are part of the reason why the world has entered a plateau," Guransha explained. This also comes in the broader context of heightened geopolitical tensions. The IMF is watching closely. ”
Citing IMF data, Gulansha said that the impact of geoeconomics** on global economic output could cost anywhere from 3% to 7% of global GDP.
And that's just the macro numbers. When we look in more detail, emerging market and developing economies tend to be the regions most affected by increased tensions and distortions. Guransha added.