To this day, some people can still talk about the take-off of China's economy in the past 20 years, and they will talk about the 911 incident.
The general idea is the same: that is, after the United States was attacked by bin Laden, it had no heart to deal with China. In order to be able to concentrate on counter-terrorism, prevent China from sticking a knife in the back, and let China join the WTO to concentrate on making money. That's why we have had a rapidly developing economy in the past 20 years.
It's as if if bin Laden didn't come out to do things, we wouldn't be able to develop anything, and we would collapse immediately.
On the day of the 911 incident.
There are two errors in this view.
First, China's accession to the WTO took place in November 1999, when China and the United States held 36 hours of final negotiations in Beijing, and reached an agreement on China's accession to the WTO. This matter was finalized during the Clinton era, and it was only announced at the 2001 World Trade Conference, so it basically had nothing to do with 911.
Second, the biggest reason why the United States adjusted its policy toward China and temporarily did not deal with it for the time being was that the US Internet bubble burst in 2000, triggering an economic crisis. The Nasdaq almost fell that year, and the market value of telecommunications-related ** evaporated by 3At $8 trillion, the number of bankruptcies has soared to an all-time high. Therefore, at that time, the United States itself was already anxious, and it really didn't care about learning martial arts with us. This is why Bush Jr. later designated us as a "strategic competitor" and immediately readjusted us to a "partner with shortcomings."
In the future, if someone still brags to you that the United States let us join the WTO because of the 911 incident, you can directly talk to him about popularizing science.
However, there is one thing to say, 911 has indeed completely attracted the attention of the United States, making him prioritize his energy on the Middle East. At that time, we also recognized the anti-terrorism policy of the United States, after all, his doors were demolished, and he needed to fight terrorism and stabilize the situation first, not only not to be ashamed, but also to vigorously support it.
Taking a step back, even without 911, most of America's energy would not be on us, because there is one thing he has to do, which will be talked about below, and read on.
On December 11, 2001, while the U.S. military was still working hard in Afghanistan, China was celebrating its official membership in the World Trade Organization. The economic cycle of us and the world has suddenly become closer, and the era of "world factory" has been opened everywhere. In 2002, we have given wings to foreign countries, industrial manufacturing, urbanization, infrastructure, foreign exchange reserves, financial system reform, science and technology, and education.
Shenzhen in 2001.
What about the US side? The all-out attack on Afghanistan has consumed a lot of wealth, and the war has also given George W. Bush a very high approval rating, laying the groundwork for his re-election.
After the overthrow of the Taliban in 2002, the U.S. military began an era of stability maintenance in Afghanistan that was as smelly as a footcloth. It stands to reason that the remnants of the enemy army should be cleared first, or Laden should be raised before making the next move. However, just after entering 2003, the United States hurriedly took out a small bottle of laundry detergent as a reason, bypassing the United Nations and directly sending a humanitarian overdose to Iraq.
Many people don't understand that they have just experienced an economic crisis, a terrorist attack, and spent a lot of money on Afghanistan. If there is another war, in addition to making those arms dealers make a lot of money, the consumption of the United States' national strength can only be even greater, so why is it so anxious to do Iraq? Could it be that the Americans also pay attention to the art of war in one go? Or is it that when they come, they will clean up together?
In fact, the attack on Iraq was confirmed early on: in November 2000, before 911, Iraq, which had always felt that it had the strength to compare with the United States, jumped out and announced that it would abandon the dollar and switch to the euro to settle oil.
In this way, several oil-producing countries in the Middle East have followed suit.
Powell took out the laundry detergent.
The Americans have not yet recovered from the wound of losing the "gold standard" and are facing the risk of losing the "oil standard." Is this still worth it?! It's okay if you don't eat at the table yourself, you still lifted my table; You didn't count if you lifted my dinner table, you actually snatched my rice pot and gave it to my little European brother, do you want to do the opposite?
Therefore, this rebellious child of Iraq has to be beaten, and he must be beaten to the death, to show prestige, and there can be no room for it. Otherwise, whoever makes a little bigger in the future will dare to flip your table and grab your pot.
It's a pity that the United States was in the middle of a first-class change period at that time, and Bush Jr., who had just taken office, caught up with 911 before he could sit on the hot side, which disrupted the formation for a while.
What to do? Xiao Sa just lifted your table and grabbed your pot, bin Laden kicked your door directly and killed you. In order to consolidate the capital market and business environment, it is necessary to fight terrorism first, and then maintain the "oil standard".
At that time, no one dared to challenge the petrodollar easily.
It was precisely because of the 911 incident that Sadham lived for two more years. Later, everyone also knew that after Sadammu was raised, the United States immediately announced that it would change the euro to settle oil in US dollars. At the beginning, it was said that there was a washing powder of mass destruction in people's homes, but they have not been found until now.
Of course, there is such a mess over there, and we must not be idle, but it is a rare window for development. Taking advantage of the two wars in the Middle East and the shareholder trend of joining the WTO, he took off in a low-key manner.
In just five years, in 2006, we became the world's largest producer of consumer electronics such as TVs, refrigerators and mobile phones; Rapid development of infrastructure in large cities and coastal areas, with new commercial centers and residential areas emerging; Foreign exchange reserves quickly surpassed $1 trillion, making it one of the countries with the largest foreign exchange reserves in the world; After the reform of the financial system, more foreign banks have entered the Chinese market, attracting a large amount of foreign direct investment, especially in the manufacturing and service sectors. He also devoted himself to reforming the education system and reserved a large number of scientific and technological talents for the future.
Look at when it started.
In the past five years, our GDP has grown by an average of more than 10%, and in 2006, it grew to a terrifying 14%, with a total size of 275 trillion, compared to 134 trillion, which has already doubled. Although the official data says so, I think it's definitely more than that. Think about it, the first time to experience such a high-speed economic development, with a population of more than one billion and millions of industries, it must be a mess to sort out, and it will definitely lose a lot compared with the previous statistics.
It was so fast that the United States began to have to pay attention to the situation in China, and our momentum made it difficult for the United States to sleep, so it began to think about attacking us again.
In 2006, the U.S. Senate passed a resolution calling for a rapid appreciation of the renminbi or a 27The 5% tariff, is it familiar? In the past, Japan was also coerced by the United States to sign the Plaza Accord because of its rapid development, which led to the rapid appreciation of the yen, and the rapid economic collapse in the next two decades, which has not been eased up so far, which is the most classic case of US economic sanctions.
Japan's land price stock index after the Plaza Accord.
The United States is already a veteran in currency wars, and this time if it wants our currency to appreciate, the first is to inhibit our development, so that our exports will be limited and domestic prices will be limited. The second is to dilute one's own debt, knowing that in 2000, the fiscal surplus of the Clinton era reached $236 billion, and only five years later, this figure became a negative $318 billion.
It is a pity that the United States succeeded in dealing with us back then, and since 2006, the renminbi has continued to appreciate against the dollar. In 2006-2008, the exchange rate of the yuan against the US dollar increased from about 81 gradually appreciates to 6Around 8, the cumulative appreciation exceeded 20%. The most direct impact of the appreciation of the renminbi is the rise of export commodities in the international market, the suppression of foreign trade exports, and the precipitous slowdown of imports and exports. Many people don't know what the suppression of imports and exports meant to China at that time, look at the figure below.
Imports and exports as a percentage of GDP.
In 2008, China's exports accounted for 59 percent of GDP8%。For example, your current monthly income is 10,000 yuan, and it looks okay, right, then I will now pinch off 60% of your monthly salary income, you still have a mortgage and a car loan, and a wife and children to support, how serious do you say.
There are also many people who ask, the appreciation of the renminbi is affected by exports, so isn't the imported goods or raw materials relatively cheap? That's right, we can think that the White House think tank is not stupid, it is pouring water and releasing water at the same time, only elementary schools can come up with this kind of problem, and it must be blocked at both ends. In those years, international commodities have been rising wildly, and some can even rise by more than 30% in a day.
In the case of the double head being blocked, the external appreciation of the renminbi and the internal purchasing power are naturally depreciated, resulting in the continuous increase in the daily consumption cost of domestic residents, and pork, soybeans, and rice noodles have all risen to a certain extent. In particular, pork ** even rose to 13 yuan in March 2008 (only more than 5 yuan in 2006). You go and look at the current pork **, it's only a dozen pieces?
That will be the pork ** trend, kilograms.
It was in those years that the common people really felt the harm of the currency war from the cost of living, and the professional term "inflation" began to be known to the common people in China that year.
At that time, it was like you, who had a monthly income of 10,000 yuan, had already been cut off by me 60% of your monthly salary before, and you were left with 4,000, and now you have to spend more than 1,000 yuan per month for fixed living expenses. In this case, there is one thing to say, although we are large in size and depth and not like a thunderstorm in Japan, as long as it continues for a few more years, the gains of more than 20 years will be seized, and it is basically a certainty.
That's when the unbelievable happened: in 2008, Lehman Brothers in the United States was the first to go bankrupt and came forward to declare the economic crisis.
The financial crisis essentially caused the bursting of the bubble in the U.S. housing market, leading to the bankruptcy of a large number of companies that had invested in a large number of subprime mortgage-related financial products, leading to a further collapse of the global economy. The United States, which is sharpening its knives at us, is rapidly plunging into a deep recession, with GDP plummeting, corporate bankruptcies skyrocketing, unemployment soaring, and large numbers of Americans losing their homes.
It is at such a point in time that the decline in bulk commodities and the recovery of imports and exports have lifted, and our crisis has been lifted. Many people still remember that in 2008, there was not only the Beijing Olympics in August, but also the bailout package launched in November that lasted for several years: 10 measures to further expand domestic demand and promote steady and rapid economic growth. Later, many people simply interpreted this measure as the "four trillion plan".
The immediate effects and aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis lasted for several years in the United States. Although the recession ended in 2009, the unemployment rate in the United States remained high until 2011.
And we've got another five-year window. The $4 trillion plan has effectively stimulated domestic demand and alleviated the impact of the global crisis on China's economy. We are also deeply reflecting on how to optimize our industry to be more independent and safer.
Since 2009, we have begun to further focus on infrastructure construction and industrial upgrading. In the following three years, the construction of urbanization infrastructure was vigorously developed, allowing a large number of rural people to migrate to the cities, which led to the development of the urban economy. Invest heavily in infrastructure construction such as transportation, energy and communications, including the construction of high-speed railways, highways and airports (the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles also began this year, tsk!). Look at this vision). Priority should be given to industrial upgrading and structural adjustment, and the development of high-tech industries and service industries. While the manufacturing sector continues to grow, emerging services (financial services, e-commerce, and information technology services) are also growing rapidly.
Although the global financial crisis has affected the international market, it has also affected the Chinese economy. However, in those five years, we still maintained GDP growth of 8%-10%, and exports also continued to grow, further consolidating its position as the world's leading country. Not only that, but our economy has also become healthier, with imports and exports falling from 60% to less than 50% of GDP.
In 2011, our GDP was 755 trillion dollars, the United States is 156 trillion, Japan is 623 trillion. The United States is twice as large as us, and we have officially surpassed Japan to become the world's second largest economy. I know that there will be a lot of people here who will jump out and raise the bar, saying that we have such a population that you have to be considered per capita! People don't have enough to see and so on. Don't worry, you can't swallow an elephant in one bite.
In the same year, Obama, who had just been in office for three years, saw that he could not suppress China's development momentum and proposed a strategy of returning to the Asia-Pacific region at the APEC meeting. The main content of this strategy is actually that economic development cannot suppress you, so it will disrupt your neighboring relations and make you unable to take care of economic development.
In this way, the situation around us has hardly been stable since 2012. Let's recall that the confrontation with the Philippines at Scarborough Shoal in 2012, the dispute over the Diaoyu Islands and Senkaku Islands in 2012, the South China Sea arbitration with the Philippines in 2013, the dispute with Vietnam in the South China Sea in 2014, and the inconvenient issue in southern Tibet in 2015 were all violations and challenges to us.
However, despite our resolute counterattack and diplomatic arguments, these violations of our sovereignty have not succeeded. Have you noticed that since these periods, our diplomatic team has become much more vigorous and active than before: I am not afraid of you, what can I do?
In 2013, we put forward the Belt and Road Initiative, which aims to counter the irrationality and imbalance of the current US-led global governance system, and we hope to promote the reform of the global governance system through the construction of the "Belt and Road" to make it more fair, reasonable and effective. To put it bluntly: in the past, your boss always restricted me from me, but now I am ready to do something on my own and challenge the rules you set.
Of course, Obama soon came up with a plan, which was to promote the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and propose the Transatlantic and Investment Partnership (TTIP). In fact, it is to completely elevate the WTO, pull some of the world's major countries and economies to form a circle, and exclude China;
Later, the TPP was reached in 2015, but the TTIP encountered difficulties in moving forward. In 2015, due to the end of Obama's term and serious partisanship, TTIP was vetoed. If both of these agreements are worked out, it's hard to say.
Writing this, I am numb, and there is only one word to describe it: destiny! At the end of Obama's term in 2016, Hillary, who is on the same party as Obama, will definitely take over the baton. But what no one expected happened: Trump jumped out and disrupted their deployment!
Who is Trump? If nothing else, just the grudge with Obama can write a book. Obama has molested and humiliated Trump in public no less than three times, which has led to the relationship between the two men speaks for itself. According to Trump's character: whatever Obama supports, I will oppose; Whatever Obama opposes, I will support by breaking my ribs.
In this way, the two major agreements advocated by Obama, one of which was directly vetoed by Trump and thrown into the toilet.
Of course, the line of dealing with China is the basic line that cannot be shaken, and Wang naturally understands this truth. However, in the current China, you can no longer hold it down.
In 2017, when THAAD entered South Korea, we restricted relevant exchanges, which affected South Korea's economy, entertainment, and capital to a certain extent. In 2018, the U.S. launched a war against the U.S. and we have taken a series of measures to counter the U.S. targeted tariffs.
At the same time, we are also intensifying macroeconomic regulation and control, promoting economic restructuring, and increasing support for high-tech and service industries. (Here you can take a look at Huawei's sanctions and rise in the past two years, which is another cool article, so I won't expand on it first). There is also strengthening economic cooperation with other ** partners such as the European Union, ASEAN, Africa and Latin America to reduce dependence on the US market.
Just when the ** war was in full swing, the black swan event in 2020 came: masks are coming.
Everyone still remembers how the West smeared us in the early days, splashing all the dirty water on us, not to mention, and sneering vigorously. But in the end, not only did we control the situation within 3 months, but we also let the Eight-Nation Alliance, which had bullied us, obediently sit in front of the computer and listen to us give them online lessons. How ironic and relieving this scene is.
When countries were at a loss, we began to resume work and production step by step. In three years, our exports have increased by $1 trillion. On the U.S. side, not only has the economy suffered, but its debt has also increased from 22 trillion to 35 trillion.
It's a bit long to write, and what happened later is still very fresh, and everyone is familiar with it, the U.S. stock circuit breaker, Russia, Ukraine, Palestine and Israel, etc., I'm afraid that I won't be able to send it, so I'll write here.
Today, I'm coding these words in front of my computer, looking them up over and over again. Our GDP has already reached 16 in 202286 trillion dollars, the GDP of the United States is 2294 trillion dollars、Japan is 5.$1 trillion. Our volume has come to 7% of the United States, which is already 3 of Japan3 times.
In just ten years, the distance between us and the United States no longer needs to be calculated in multiples; In just 20 years, it has been possible to use multiples to locate the size of Japan, and everything is like a world away!
Since the 70s, there has been some kind of mysterious force escorting us with every turn of turn and opportunity, but it is undeniable:
Every turning point and opportunity is inseparable from our strong forbearance and determination; are inseparable from our senior leadership organizations with advanced strategic vision; Of course, it is also possible to seize these opportunities by relying on our hard-working people.
Otherwise, if these opportunities are put in Vietnam, in India, in any other country, will they be able to take them?
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