Kunpeng Project
Moderator |Yin Xing
**Proceed to the second stage
Moderator |: On the last trading day before the holiday, the big A made everyone confused, and the maximum increase in some mainstream indices in the past four days was close to or even exceeded 20%, which can only be described as a blowout. Today, let's talk to everyone about rafting, what is the nature of this round**? How much space is there in the short to medium term? After all, in my impression, you have been nagging every day for a few months in advance that the GEM index of 14xx points is the most important support level in this round. And when you appeared on the GEM at 14xx points on Monday, you also suggested that friends who started regular investment at 1800 points before the first line could add a sum to reduce the cost.
Rafting: Firmly optimistic, otherwise it is recommended that everyone start from the 1800 point line? To make such an investment in a 3-5 year cycle, subjectively speaking, I certainly want the index to be as low as possible, and at the same time, to stay as low as possible for as long as possible. This will allow you to buy enough low stacks. And I used to look at the lowest point of this round of gem ** is 14xx points, and Monday has arrived, so high cost-effective time** to find? At that time, it was not a big wave to let everyone shuttle, but it was recommended that friends who had participated in regular investment for a few months before should buy as much as they invested at this 14xx point position, and the cost could drop to about 7% in an instant. After these three days, these friends also have good short-term returns, just to welcome the New Year with joy.
Moderator |But this round of indices rose a little strangely, first the CSI 300 and the Shanghai 50 stabilized, and then the double began to rise, and on Wednesday, the CSI 500 rose more, and on Thursday the CSI 2000 obviously won. The dazzling rotation of the index** will make everyone can't be rectified.
RaftingThe rhythm of this round of index rotation is similar to what you just described, first Shanghai and Shenzhen and Shanghai pointed out the current trend of grinding the bottom, which I have told you a few weeks ago, when these three indices have bottomed out before the entire market. These were also the shallowest decliners in January, who fell the most? Double creation! At this time, the technical side of the gem touched the bottom signal for the first time, and the news has not stopped since the beginning of the RRR cut and structural interest rate cuts. Then on Wednesday, news began to appear about the restriction of refinancing and the contraction of securities lending, at this time, most of the snowballs of the CSI 500 and 1000 in the whole market were knocked in, and the CSI 500 was shorted in an instant**. On Thursday, when the momentum of short-selling of small and micro three stocks was temporarily released, coupled with the liberalization of some institutional hedging business, the micro-cap stock index showed a strong **, and this round of index** entered the second stage.
Moderator |: What about the second phase?
Rafting: The indices returned to their normal trajectory, and the indices representing the best value stocks such as Shanghai and Shenzhen continued to pull and bottom. After the first time the double creation stepped on the low point of this round of **, there will be two divergent trends, one is directly consolidated at a high level for a long time, and there is also the momentum to rush upward, and then wait for the fundamental reversal, and there will be a step back in the process. One is that, like the CSI 300 Index, it has entered the bottoming stage of pulling back and forth. Anyway, no matter what, it's all bottoming, but there are still repetitions, and it won't be achieved overnight. The good thing is that when the index enters the stage of repeated pulling, the activity will increase, don't look at the index rising happily these days, but the hot spots are very vague, only a few main lines such as resources, security +, and new quality productivity. The follow-up will see if there are new hot spots, and whether these main lines can be clearer. Anyway, this week's index ** let everyone get back a little blood, everyone just took advantage of the New Year's holiday at home to think about how to invest in the Year of the Dragon, whether it is ** or allocation, don't waste the big cycle opportunity brought by the fluctuation of the index once in ten years! I wish all readers good health in the New Year, success and successful investment in the Year of the Dragon.
The process of rebuilding confidence is a long and arduous process
Moderator |In September last year, Xiao Xiao believed that the market turnaround needs to first limit shorting, then the exchange rate will stabilize, and finally the three elements of style switching.
The sea breeze is like rainUnder normal circumstances, before the Spring Festival holiday, the market is on the weak side, and this week's market out of this kind of ups and downs is directly related to the policy to maintain stability. In September last year, the CSI 300 index was still at 3672 points, and we thought that there was a problem with the "ecological environment" of the market, and there was no reason why the valuation of the CSI 300 index was only 10 in the context of monetary easing + steady growth8 times and still falling endlessly, so it is proposed that the market turn around needs to limit the "short" tool. This week's policy to limit the scale of securities lending business, together with the public security organs to severely punish malicious short-selling and other policies, the market immediately saw the style of "resurrection", superimposed last week we prompted the "micro-cap stock index" reflects the style switch and the bursting of the bubble with a high premium for small tickets, two of the three conditions have been met, and the market has a high probability of turning around.
Moderator |At the beginning of January, you reminded investors to pay attention to the possibility of the Shanghai Composite falling below 2863 points to make up for the 2590 gap at the beginning of 2019.
The sea breeze is like rainIf it weren't for the banks and energy to "carry" the Shanghai Composite Index on their shoulders, the real water level of the Shanghai Composite Index may have returned to 2,500 points, and the CSI 300 Index and the ChiNext Index have all returned to the water level at the beginning of 2019? **The market has been from the beginning of 2019 to the beginning of 2024, and in the past five years, it has really come out of a capital "A". This week's long lower shadow appeared after a significant stampede on leveraged funds, and it manifested itself in the form of a perimeter yang, and the bottoming signal has been relatively clear. If the main forces (oil, banks, etc.) do not make up for the decline in the so-called "successful retirement" style, the probability of breaking a new low is no longer large. However, it is unlikely that the market will rush directly into the "KTV" as soon as it is rescued from the "ICU", and the process of rebuilding market confidence is "long and difficult". At present, I think it is still the second stage of reversing the trend (two attacks on the 60th line), and we have also done it before, and the market turnaround needs to be achieved by "three dozen white bones" or even "four crossings of Chishui". February's ** is likely to be dominated by growth stocks with over-falling corrections, and there are obvious opportunities for AI themes and new energy themes.
The upturn in the market is real
Moderator |: Last week's scorching sun prompted that it would open on February 5 ** is very critical, and sure enough, it happened to bottom out on February 5 and skyrocketed, what do you think about the new year?
The sun: This time, there are high-ranking people, first release water, supply blood to the market, and then introduce a new policy for refinancing. The Shanghai market once again stood above 2800 points, and the weekly structure is also anti-package, but from the perspective of the first structure, the 60-day line is still a bearish trend, and the bulls are not effectively standing, so there should be repeated later, and it still takes time to repair. The 3 consecutive days before the holiday cannot be regarded as the norm, but the improvement of the market is real, and there will be no room for adjustment later, and it is also benign, the kind that repairs the structure.
Moderator |: This wave mainly kills micro-cap stocks, how do you think about the size differentiation in the future?
The sun: More than half of the worthless varieties in the market will gradually be turned into Hong Kong stocks, because there is no value and no capital attention. It turns out that the funds chasing these junk small caps will intervene in the direction of real value after they come out, providing a large amount of blood transfusion for high-quality medium and first-class stocks, and providing long-term upward momentum. Of course, it does not mean that all small-cap stocks are not good, and the real leading stocks in the growth segment are exceptions, and the future market speculation is the truly competitive leading companies.
Moderator |: This week's over-falling stocks collectively came quickly and violently, but the previously strong high dividends have instead, where to go?
The sun: High dividends are certainly no problem, but large market capitalizations are slow to accept. For example, China Shenhua, in the long-term trend, each time **20% will be launched for a few months or even half a year**, it must not be easy to chase high, and we must be patient and wait for the low point of sufficient ** to find opportunities. For small caps, because the clearing leads to a better supply of blood for the real growth segment leader, it will usher in a better low. But this kind of vision is difficult for most people to grasp. It should be a better choice to focus on the characteristics of high-dividend and high-quality leaders from the beginning of the capital, and to choose excellent companies with high dividends and low valuations in the mid-cap. The phosphorus chemical industry we talked about before is this kind, and then the leading varieties of waste-to-energy generation, the leading varieties of resources, such as copper, have been the first of the year, the valuation is good, the dividends are good, they have all reached a very safe position, and there are actually quite a lot of such **.
(This article has been published in the February 10 issue of **Market Weekly, and the article mentions ** for analysis only, not investment advice.) ）