Buy side views exchange with Ruijun Assets

Mondo Social Updated on 2024-02-02

There were three main topics to talk about.

The first is the real estate market. If the judgment that the real estate bottoms out and stabilizes is true, there will be more consensus on the fundamentals of many industries for subjective long investors.

In the past 14 years, the median return of the public offering ** has outperformed the CSI 300 Index for 10 years, and there is still excess return. If the judgment that the real estate bottoms out and stabilizes is true, the subjective bulls will be in a much better position in 2024 than in 2023.

Standing in 2024, we feel that consumption and technology will bottom out in the second half of 2023.

It's just that this recovery may be a weaker one. Therefore, we will also say on different occasions that this technology is a relatively long-term boom.

But the Philadelphia semiconductor in the United States has hit a record high, although there is a lag in transmission, but in any case, its business cycle is going up.

Consumption may also slowly go up. Everyone will start working hard to make money again, and their confidence will be restored.

New energy may still be going down from its high point, because it will only deteriorate in the second half of 2023, and the oversupply caused by the mismatch between supply and demand will take some time to digest. From the perspective of corporate performance, it is likely that 2024 will continue to decline.

For pro-cyclical industries, commodities have basically been in a relatively high boom since 2015 and 2016, and the demand for copper prices is still relatively high, so this place is not judged.

The second topic is the return to capital markets.

It is indeed difficult to judge the ups and downs of the capital market, and we are focusing on judging the style of the market this time.

To sum up, if the old momentum drags down to this point and the macro economy can stabilize, due to social progress, we hope for new economic growth points, whether there are small companies that can grow up from a young age, which is very critical to the development of the entire economy and capital market in the future.

Therefore, in the future, the style of the market will change, as long as the market stabilizes, the most dazzling stars of the market may change a batch of **.

The third question is the high-dividend strategy.

The high-dividend strategy is now the most popular in the market, especially since the beginning of this year, only this strategy is okay, and the others have stopped.

Everyone clearly feels that due to the reduction of risk appetite, the performance of the entire CSI Dividend Index is very eye-catching.

First, from a relative valuation perspective, the dividend index is still the lowest valuation.

Whether it is compared with the CSI 300 ratio, the CSI 500 ratio, or the ChiNext index and other indexes, it is significantly lower than other indexes.

Second, so far, its implied dividend yield remains attractive.

Minutes**: Wen Bagu Research] Mini Program

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