Micro-cap stocks have recently been in the spotlight.
The ** that opened at the end of January, as well as the continuous ** repair after the Spring Festival, made everyone start to pay attention to the micro market again.
It seems that just after the cold winter, spring is coming, and it even gives people a feeling that the hot summer of micro-cap stocks will come.
On the one hand, there is a bunch of value investors' ridicule of micro-cap stocks, and on the other hand, there is a real money-making effect, where should micro-cap stocks go?
To find the answer to this question, we should think about a few questions.
First, who is the culprit in microcaps**? Who will take over?
It is certainly correct to say that micro-cap stocks need to make up for losses, because in the second half of 2023, a record high will be reached.
But this kind of cliff-like **, a week**30%+, a month close to halving, is still irrational.
To put it bluntly, it is the same as the 2015 index to over-the-counter allocation.
So the culprit of this round of micro-cap stocks, needless to say, is the quantitative funds that have relied on micro-cap stocks for speculation and arbitrage for a long time.
The last few consecutive falling limits are caused by killing quantification, killing shorts, and forcing liquidation.
Those arbitrage funds with leverage have become the real culprits of this round.
In every round, in fact, there will be funds to take over in the end, don't worry about no one taking over, because there is **space, there will be profits.
Starting from the lowest point of the bottom, the strength of ** has exceeded 50%, which is significantly beyond the expectation of 30-40%.
Who will take over, in fact, in the direction of CSI 2000, there is a national team to take over, and other micro market ** direction, there are also clear funds**, and they are smart ** funds.
These funds must be a safety cushion, to make money, and to retreat smoothly.
Therefore, the ** of micro-cap stocks cannot be said to be bound to enter the summer heat, but it is also difficult to return to the cold winter, and it is most normal to have hot and cold in spring.
Second, how many micro-cap stocks have real growth?
Everyone's expectation of micro-cap stocks is mainly due to growth.
But to be honest, nowadays, it is very difficult to nugget growth in micro-cap stocks.
In other words, ** with growth potential may not be included in the category of micro-cap stocks.
There are more and more professional players in this market, and the attention to small and micro enterprises is actually very high.
Small and micro enterprises with growth potential, the IPO may exceed 5 billion market value as soon as it comes up, leaving the ranks of micro-cap stocks.
And those listed companies with a market value of only 10-2 billion yuan, without core technology, will not have good growth.
And some companies that have real technical strength even if their performance is not good, even if they are loss-making, will have a market value of 10 billion.
Therefore, the problem of growth will not account for a particularly high proportion in the micro market.
Most of them may still be struggling on the line of life and death, hovering back and forth between profits and losses, and the future direction of this kind of listed company must be the direction of penny stocks, which are slowly marginalized and abandoned.
Listed companies with small caps can eventually come out, and there is a high probability that they are pigs on the tuyere, so that they have a chance of nirvana.
Third, if microcap stocks diverge, which direction will be the focus in the future?
Divergence is an inevitable consequence, and the ups and downs of the entire plate cannot be the norm.
There will be no professional institutional funds to take over the ** of the micro disk, because there are too many thunders.
The 28 phenomenon may be the final doomed outcome of the micro market, or even the 19 differentiation.
The micro market, which direction may be the focus of the future, can it run out of some high-quality listed companies.
It mainly depends on the industry track.
There are some traditional tracks, listed companies have been more than ten years, and it is impossible for you to expect this kind of company to undergo transformation.
However, some innovative tracks, listed companies that are still in the embryonic stage, once there is a big opportunity for the development of the industry, the opportunity is very large.
On the other hand, how much the company invests in innovation, research and development.
It is a pig that can fly on the tuyere, but the pig will fall, and only a bird can really soar.
Whether the listed company itself has wings determines the future development prospects, talents, technology, patents, marketing, and products actually need to be precipitated and need to spend money.
If such a company, at such a small scale, only focuses on capitalization operations and cash-out, then there will definitely be no more opportunities.
Therefore, it is not that micro-cap stocks cannot be bought, but the direction of nuggets, which should be more precise and reduce the risk of stepping on mines.
Let's be honest, the short-term, medium-term, and long-term direction of microcap stocks in the future.
Short term.
In the short term, both the repair and the fix have already been experienced.
In the future, it will be about 6-8 weeks, and there is a high probability that it will go up and down in this position.
There will definitely be a large ** in the middle, but the cycle is very short, maybe 1-2 days.
It's like a ball that falls to the ground, and then **, and then **, and again**.
There are a lot of profit orders accumulated in a row, and they need to be digested before they can continue to move forward.
Medium term.
The medium-term trend for microcap stocks is actually not very optimistic.
Looking back on the previous two years, the overall trend in this direction is significantly stronger than that of the entire market, but the performance is getting worse.
In other words, the big blue chips are releasing risk, and the micro-cap stocks are accumulating risk.
Today's micro-cap stocks are not doing well and the situation is precarious, and this will continue for a long time before the economy improves significantly.
No big money will go into micro-cap stocks, and the power of ** alone will eventually be no match for the tide of the trend.
Long-term.
In the long run, it is destined to be differentiated, and high-quality listed companies will eventually break away from the ranks of micro-cap stocks.
In other words, micro-cap stocks will always represent companies that are tepid and may be at risk.
This means that the eventual loneliness of this sector is inevitable, and the company that runs out of the team is out of this team.
To put it simply, micro-cap stocks will become a mining place in the future, ten, thirty, fifty times bigger**, there will definitely be, but most of the digging is stinky and hard stones.
For ordinary investors, it is very difficult to go to this place to mine.
From a probability point of view, it is difficult for the average investor to make money in the long run when gambling on micro-cap stocks.
It's like looking for food in a garbage heap, it's easy to find moldy and spoiled food, and it's easy to eat bad stomach.
After a round of ** amplitude adjustments, you can enter the market to see if there are any bargains.
Because no matter whether it is good or bad, the rise and fall of the short cycle depends on whether there is an advantage in the end, and the long cycle depends on the quality of the listed company.
Don't beat micro-cap stocks to death, the market is only expensive and cheap, there is no real good and bad.
Disclaimer: This content is provided by *** Monster Hunter and is for reference only and does not constitute operational advice. If you operate by yourself, pay attention to ** control and risk at your own risk.
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