WheatAlthough the ** of ** can be expected to some extent, the magnitude of ** this time is unexpected. beforeWheatThe decline was relatively flat, at 1There is obvious support on the ** position of 5 yuan catty. This is because of last yearWheatAcquisitions** in 1About 5 yuan catty, the cost of grain collection in the market is also close to this price. So whenWheatThe ** is close to 1At 5 yuan, the market showed an obvious sentiment of price support. However, this frequent rise and fall situation has gradually numbed the market and has not really paid attentionWheatThe reality behind it. Therefore, no one expected this timeWheatwill fall so fast that it not only breaks through 1The support of 5 yuan catty, and even some enterprises are lower than 145 yuan catty. This is where the panic in the market comes from. However, this timeWheatThe plunge actually reveals some problems, namelyWheatThe true face has been revealed.
withCornDifferent,WheatThere is no shortage of **. Despite previous yearsWheatBut it's not due to **nervousness, becauseWheatIt has always been one of the important rations in our country, and the grain output has remained at 1 for 8 consecutive yearsMore than 3 trillion catties, including summer grainWheatplayed an important role. This year due to the weather,WheatProduction has decreased, but in our countryWheatThe self-sufficiency rate is extremely high, and last yearWheatThe yield is bumper and the surplus is larger, thereforeWheatThe ** is sufficient. There has been speculation in the market beforeWheatThe reduction in production has created a tense situation, but this situation is obviously not sustainable.
WheatQuality differentiation is another hype factor in the market. This year due to rain and other reasons,WheatThe quality differentiation is more pronounced, so *** However,WheatThe support of ** is not determined by quality problems, but by demand problems. WheatThe demand is mainly divided into two aspects: food and feed. Feed includes:Wheat branand asCornAlternativesWheat, but this year due toCorn**of**,WheatThe demand as feed can hardly be started. In addition, against the backdrop of weak overall consumption, the demand for flour has also fallen sharply. So, thoughWheatThere is a quality differentiation, but the impact of the quality differentiation is not obvious due to the sluggish demand.
Wheat** The rally usually works in two phases: inWheatAt the beginning of the harvest, quality differentiation played a role in boosting market sentiment; InWheatAfter circulating for a period of time, high qualityWheat**Tight, playing**supporting. However, now there is a distanceWheatNearly half a year has passed since the harvest, and the mood-boosting effect has gradually weakened, and new influencing factors have not yet emerged. So, thoughWheatThere is an opportunity, but in the context of sufficient and sluggish demand, the pressure is indeed great. Many people in the market compare the market situation in previous years, but this year and previous years have completely different situations. Last year, even thoughWheatThere is no inflow into the feed market, and due to the impact of the epidemic, it has become the norm for residents to hoard rice and noodles, which has been promotedWheatDemand. However, this year, the overall demand in the commodity market is sluggish, the sales of flour are not ideal, and enterprises are facing great pressure and can only continue to reduce prices. So, that's what it isWheatThe real prototype. Those so-called ** opportunities can only be triggered under certain conditions, the current market pressure is greater, and stopping the fall is already a relatively good result, and it is basically difficult to achieve a big rise.
Wheat**of** exceeded the market's expectations, revealing some problems. First of all, thoughWheatThe output has decreased, but it is still sufficient, and the reduction is only a superficial phenomenon, and the essence is that the pressure is not great. Secondly, thoughWheatThere is a differentiation in quality, but the decline in demand makes the impact of quality differentiation limited. Finally,WheatThe rally is under tremendous pressure, and the sluggish demand has limited the rebound. Therefore, the market is rightWheatExpectations need to be adjusted, and a sharp rise is less likely.