WeChat***Immediately win the intelligence station (ID: gh 62c3dc96ee87), author: echo, pumpkin horse, original title: "Reading "Refrigerated Ready-to-Drink Juice": If there is a chance to become the next "sugar-free tea"? >> Image from: Visual China's ready-to-drink juice has always been an important part of the beverage market. According to the relevant data in the offline retail monitoring network, the market share of ready-to-drink juice will account for 11 percent of the total beverage category (including packaged water) in 202303%, although non-refrigerated ready-to-drink juice accounts for the vast majority of the share, refrigerated ready-to-drink juice is growing rapidly.
Even so, in terms of consumption, the per capita consumption of fruit juice in China is still lower than that of Europe, the United States and Japan; At the same time, in terms of the composition of fruit juice products consumed, China's "100% fruit juice" consumption accounts for only about 6%, far lower than the 48% consumption in Western Europe, 53% in North America, and 62% in Japan [1]. The lack of popularity of high-quality juices with higher and fresher content of "real" juices has also indirectly triggered health anxiety among consumers, causing China's juice market to turn around and face the impact of structural transformation – and the opportunities it brings.
In 2023, the market share of refrigerated ready-to-drink juice in the ready-to-drink juice category will grow by 1888%, second only to "everyone's known" ready-to-drink tea and sports drinks. Although the market size is still very small, in the past two years, we have indeed seen more and more new brands and products of refrigerated ready-to-drink juice on the refrigerated shelves.
If the ten-year ice drinking of sugar-free tea finally led the ready-to-drink tea category to soar, then can refrigerated ready-to-drink juice carry the banner of structural transformation of ready-to-drink juice?
1. Overview of the category of refrigerated ready-to-drink juice.
Refrigerated ready-to-drink juice and non-refrigerated ready-to-drink juice belong to the same category of ready-to-drink juice, and the difference mainly comes from the storage method. Compared with the normal temperature storage of non-refrigerated ready-to-drink juice, refrigerated ready-to-drink juice generally requires that the product is in the refrigerated temperature zone (4° 10°) from the beginning of production to the shelf, which has higher requirements for all aspects of product storage, transportation and sales. On the other hand, the shelf life of refrigerated ready-to-drink juice is shorter, and its quality and effect are relatively better in terms of juice preservation, juice original flavor restoration, and juice nutrient preservation.
1.Group & Brand: Weiquan is unbeatable, and there is still room for new players.
In the category of refrigerated ready-to-drink juice, the first is the composition of the CR10 group of the category. It can be seen that Weiquan single group accounts for 58 in the category8%, which not only opens a faulty gap with other groups, but also accounts for more than half of the overall category share, which is in an absolute leading position.
The first in the category.
The second, third, and fourth are Nongfu Spring, Lemon Republic, and If. Compared with Weiquan and Nongfu Spring, Lemon Republic and Ruo are both brands that have grown up in the retail refrigerated ready-to-drink juice track in recent years, and in the context of the overall small share of the refrigerated ready-to-drink juice category, although the concentration of TOP groups is very high, there are still many opportunities for new brands to run out.
In further research, we pulled the top 30 SKUs in the refrigerated ready-to-drink juice category in the whole year of 2023, hoping to see the commonalities and characteristics of the market in product selection through the analysis of the top SKUs.
First of all, the group ownership of the TOP30 SKUs, Weiquan occupies the first place with 13 SKUs, and the number of SKUs within the TOP30 of the latter groups is basically the same as the CR10 market share ranking.
2.Specifications, small specifications, high unit price, "expensive" family in beverages.
In terms of the distribution of the specifications of the top 30 SKUs, it can be seen that the main specifications of other types of beverages are 500ml and 600mlThe main specifications of refrigerated ready-to-drink juice are concentrated in about 300ml bottlesThe number of products in this specification segment (245ml and 386ml) and the market share in the corresponding category of the product have reached about 70% of the category. The large-size products in the category jumped directly from the specification segment of about 300ml to about 900ml, and entered the sharing scene in the drinking scene.
Another noteworthy point is that the TOP 30 SKU** has two 1600ml products, and the general consumption scenario of the product of this specification is multiple drinking at home, which is also a specification and drinking scene with more characteristics of the category.
In the distribution of the unit price of top 30 products, you can see thatAlthough products of about 300ml account for 70% of the overall share and number of SKUs, the products are basically distributed around 7 yuanIt is speculated that due to the different raw materials and processing methods of the products, the product quality is different, so that the products are different in the case of similar specifications. In the unit price of the piece, products above 10 yuan are basically large-package products.
In order to exclude the influence of the unit price of large-sized products on the observation of **bands, we also calculated the distribution of ** bands per 100 ml of TOP 30 SKU products, and added the top product Minute Maid Fruit Orange 450ml in the non-refrigerated ready-to-drink juice category, and Coca-Cola 500ml in carbonated drinks for comparison and reference of the average price of 100 ml.
As you can see,All top 30 products per 100 ml** are well above the unit price per 100 ml of the two reference products. The unit price and market share range of 100 milliliters of the product are basically concentrated in 15 yuan 2In the range of 5 yuan and 100 milliliters, the maximum can reach 35 yuan per 100 ml, such a unit price performance of 100 ml also proves the "high value" status of the category in the overall beverage from the side.
3.City level and region: "upper" and "eastern" districts.
In terms of regional differences in consumption of categories, first of all, we will consider the upper tier cities (including first-tier cities, new first-tier cities, and second-tier cities) and the lower-tier cities (inclusive).
Third, fourth, and fifth-tier cities, excluding townships, villages, and township markets), based on the requirements of the whole cold chain infrastructure for the storage, transportation, and sales channels of refrigerated ready-to-drink juices, as well as the higher unit prices than traditional non-refrigerated ready-to-drink juices and other types of beveragesThere is a big gap between the share of categories in the up-line cities and the share of the lower-tier cities.
On the one hand, the online cities have a wider range of adaptation in terms of channel support capabilities, consumer consumption habits, and consumer acceptance of the first belt, and can accommodate more types and conditions of products; On the other hand, the proportion of beverages** as a whole in lower-tier cities is larger, which also objectively exacerbates the degree of discrepancy in this data.
Based on the analysis of the relevant data of the main consumption regions in the offline retail monitoring network, the proportion of ready-to-drink juice in the beverage category is among the best in North China and Northeast China, while the proportion in South China is the least. Specifically, the proportion of refrigerated ready-to-drink juice is quite different, and the proportion of refrigerated ready-to-drink juice in East China, North China and Central China ranks among the top three in the overall beverage market.
Based on the data, and crossed by the regional natural climate conditions, consumers' juice consumption habits, the degree of regional economic development, and the degree of modernization of retail channels, it can be seenRefrigerated ready-to-drink juice has high requirements for consumption habits, consumption capacity, and channel modernization capabilities. For example, although South China has a developed economy and a hot climate, the consumption habits of fruit juice are not strong, and the overall proportion is low. The proportion of ready-to-drink juice consumption in Northeast China is relatively high, but the overall proportion of refrigerated ready-to-drink juice is relatively low due to factors such as temperature zone, economic development and development of retail digital channels.
Therefore, it is speculated that at present, the customers who are better to make refrigerated ready-to-drink juice are still the middle and high-end consumers who have juice drinking habits, not seeking breadth, but also grasping the depth, that is, high customer unit price and high repurchase.
3.Channels and formats: Convenience stores are definitely ahead, and grocery stores have the worst preference.
The high demand for cold chain infrastructure, regional preference, and the top-level product situation in the category have a significant impact on the format and channel preference of refrigerated ready-to-drink juice and non-refrigerated ready-to-drink juice. Taking the average category share of the two categories in the five business formats as the baseline 100, the preference of non-refrigerated ready-to-drink juice category and refrigerated ready-to-drink juice category in each business format was observed
In the business preference index of non-refrigerated ready-to-drink juice, it can be seen that large supermarkets, hypermarkets, and small supermarkets are all positively biased formats of category products, while relatively small formats such as convenience stores and grocery stores are negatively biased.
In contrast, the preference for refrigerated ready-to-drink juice is completely different, as can be seenConvenience stores occupy an absolute preference advantage in this category, with a preference index of 175, which is significantly higher than the average format share of the category. Different from non-refrigerated ready-to-drink juices, the index is significantly lower than the average in small supermarkets and large supermarkets. Hypermarkets and grocery stores are basically close to the baseline.
It can be seen from the specification distribution, unit price, 100 ml unit price and regional preference conclusion of refrigerated ready-to-drink juice in the above figure that convenience stores, as the main position of high gross profit, high unit price and small specifications, account for a very high proportion of the sales of refrigerated ready-to-drink juice, and the leading in the region East China, South China, and Central China all have relatively good convenience store system construction, which also supports the higher sales demand of the category in these regions.
2. What is the direction of the next "sugar-free tea"?
In the face of such a current niche market, in addition to following the development of the trend, what other dimensions can enterprises take the initiative to attack?
Based on the overall situation of the above categories and the relevant situation of the top brands, we have compiled the relevant information of the top 4 brands in the refrigerated ready-to-drink juice category, hoping to have some inspiration.
Weiquan: There are many SKUs, mainly FC products;
Nongfu Spring: There are fewer SKUs, focusing on orange-flavored products, deeply cultivating the orange industry chain, and insisting on NFC;
If there are many SKUs, develop local fruits and match different processes according to the needs of end products;
Lemon Republic: Develop products with lemon flavor as the core.
1.Direction 1: Localized flavor upgrade.
Based on the relevant data in the offline retail monitoring network, the market share of different flavors of refrigerated ready-to-drink juice is rankedAt the moment, the orange flavor is still at 30With a market share of 46%, it ranks first (as with non-refrigerated ready-to-drink juices), but more localized flavors such as bayberry, lychee, pineapple, and hawthorn also appear higher on the list.
One of the main minds of refrigerated ready-to-drink juices is freshness. Capturing local flavors with local ingredients can better strengthen this mentality - after all, "freshness" as the saying goes, is the juice of the fruit grown at the doorstep, if it is not grown locally or has not heard of it, it may make people feel novel, but it is difficult for people to think of freshness all at once. On the contrary, if there is an endorsement of local seasonal fresh fruits, the freshness of the juice is easier to be perceived by consumers.
Some refrigerated ready-to-drink juice brands have launched juices with flavors such as Zhangpu lychee, Putian loquat, Chengde hawthorn, Hainan coconut, etc., and the naming of each SKU is composed of the name of the origin + the name of the fruit, which strengthens the connection between the juice and the source of the fruit.
There are also brands that go one step further, not only linking the origin but also highlighting the season. Starting from the source of orange juice, in addition to making orange juice, it will also be sold directly in the form of fresh fruits.
If fruit juice can be achieved to the extreme, it should be rooted in the soil and water like fresh fruit, and follow the rhythm of the four seasons.
2.Direction 2: Continuous innovation of technology.
The product advantages of low-temperature refrigerated juice should not only lie in the raw materials. As an industrial product, process innovation and research exploration are also important links.
At present, the common keywords of low-temperature refrigerated ready-to-drink juice are FC NFC, HPP, and in layman's terms:
FC (from concentrate) and NFC (not from concentrate) are more descriptions and classifications of juice raw materials, that is, whether concentrated fruit juice is used as raw materials, and do not specifically refer to the processing technology of concentration and reduction.
HPP stands for low-temperature and high-pressure sterilization - in a high-pressure environment, it does not require high temperature to effectively inactivate microorganisms, so it can better retain the nutrients and flavor of the juice; On the other hand, high-temperature sterilization is represented by UHT.
These are two different dimensions that describe fruit juice, and there is no binding or causal relationshipTheoretically, FC juice can also use HPP sterilization technology, but due to the high cost of HPP process, it is generally used for NFC juice with a higher price.
However, a "good" bottle of low-temperature refrigerated ready-to-drink juice is not just a good one link, but every link. The purpose of "low-temperature refrigeration" is to better retain the original nutrients in the fruit, which requires every step to reduce oxidation and keep the temperature as low as possible. This is a game of "short board theory" in the barrel theory, and any board in the process is a short board, which will make the quality of the entire product deteriorate.
So, can the current common low-temperature refrigerated juice really achieve the purpose of more nutritious and fresher? Even if NFC+HPP Buff is stacked, the actual situation may be: directly purchase NFC juice raw materials for production, or use HPP and low-temperature cold filling after getting the raw juice, but most of the NFC juice has been baptized by UHT before delivery ...... productionabandon。
If it's really low, it has to be low temperature all the way.
In the future, with the continuous development of technology and technology, if low-temperature refrigerated juice can turn "drinkable fruits and vegetables" into reality, it may open up a new world for the low-temperature ready-to-drink juice track.
3.Direction 3: Optimize the first chain and enhance the competitiveness of products.
It's not easy to achieve "true low temperatures". Compared with the process problems that can be solved in the factory in the end, it is more difficult to build the entire first-class chain system outside the factory - there is a coherent and high-standard first-class chain in order to produce good products; At the same time, under the pressure of the first belt, the first chain control is strong in order to make the most competitive products. From orchard to table, this is a huge system that spans primary, secondary and tertiary productions.
Although the refrigerated ready-to-drink juice category is in a "high price" position in the overall beverage ** band, the unit price of the top 30 products is still concentrated below 10 yuan for 300ml. NFC juice can do this at present, but HPP juice is still difficult to achieve, and it is still necessary to polish a higher efficiency chain.
If the real low-temperature refrigerated HPP juice wants to enter the next wider and more accessible range in terms of competitiveness, the following aspects of the first chain improvement are indispensable:
Work closely with fresh fruit producing areas to improve the yield and quality of raw fruits from scientific breeding and smart agriculture, and stabilize raw fruits;
The layout of the factory refers to the national excellent fruit producing areas, leaving room for fresh fruit transportation and pretreatment;
Build your own HPP factory, upgrade your HPP equipment, and improve your HPP juice production efficiency.
OEM production is combined with independent brand production to maximize the utilization of the production line;
3. Conclusion: From good products to new values.
At this stage, China's fruit juice market is undergoing an overall structural transformation, and low-concentration fruit juice drinks and "pseudo-low temperature" refrigerated ready-to-drink juice are inevitably timidity in the face of consumers who are more and more concerned about health and more knowledgeable.
Even in the face of the overall downward consumption environment, as a practitioner, we should understand that consumers will always pay for value, not **.
The result of consumers paying for value is not only the current growth of low-temperature refrigerated ready-to-drink juice, but also the reason for the decline of "pseudo-low-temperature" products in the future - at present, we have seen that some brands are trying to make a "true low-temperature" refrigerated ready-to-drink juice that is worth buying, and we also see consumers paying for good products with real gold**.
After all, there is no such thing as a good product that can't be sold, and if there is, it's not good enough.
So, after the popularization of true low temperatures, what further value can refrigerated ready-to-drink juice provide to consumers?
There are actually quite a few very successful products in the juice track, but it seems that they are more successful as a good drink than as a juice. Is it possible for juice itself, like milk, to become a category with clear boundaries like drinking water?
Looking back at the markets of Japan, Europe and the United States, the formation of juice drinking habits still originated from the supplement or substitution of fresh fruits and vegetables, and in essence, it still provided a relatively clear function in the minds of consumers, and it was not just delicious at that time; The current controversy also comes from the weakening of the functionality of fruit juice in terms of objectively not being able to replace fresh fruits and vegetables, and subjectively fresh fruits and vegetables are no longer scarce.
Returning to this idea, with the upgrading of raw materials and technology, what are the new value points of a good low-temperature refrigerated ready-to-drink juice that are worth excavating?
First, back to the fruit and vegetable itself, good fruit and vegetable juice can exist as a new form of fruit and vegetable. Although it cannot be completely replaced in terms of nutritional value, it can be compensated for in terms of convenience and cost.
Second, functional juice under the concept of medicine and food homology. Some overseas juice brands, such as suja and moju, have already tried it.
A good product needs to constantly think about its own value proposition, not superstitious about the product itself, nor superstitious about it. Perhaps what we are doing today is from "pseudo-low temperature" to "true low temperature", from "expensive HPP" to "cheap HPP", but all these labels can only create new value when they are transformed into the value that consumers need.
Reference**:1] Dele Changhong: Consumption can't keep up, the future of Chinese juice is**? FBIF Food & Beverage Innovation, July 19, 2023
WeChat***Immediately win the intelligence station (ID: gh 62c3dc96ee87), author: echo, pumpkin Ma The content is the author's independent point of view and does not represent the position of Tiger Sniff. Do not do without permission**, please contact hezuo@huxiu for authorizationcom
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