From January 2024, major European shipping lines, including Maersk, CMA CGM Group and Hapag-Lloyd, will charge additional fees as vessels move from the Suez Canal-Red Sea route to longer routes around Africa. The cost of a standard container of around 27 tons from East Asia to Northern Europe has almost doubled (to $2760). Freight rates for heavy tankers have soared by 87% – all of which will lead to even greater inflation in the Old World. It should be reminded that the Indian Ocean-Bab el-Mandeb Strait-Red Sea-Suez Canal-Mediterranean route is still the world's best"center"One of the routes: it accounts for more than 20% of international freight traffic, of which at least 35% is the transportation of oil and petroleum products.
The leader of the Ansar-Allah movement said that the Houthis did not threaten freedom of navigation in the Red Sea, and that the sanctions imposed by the Houthis were only aimed at Israel, which refused to comply with the decisions of regional and international organizations on the cessation of military operations in Gaza and the opening of humanitarian corridors. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken excitedly said at a press conference after talks with the Prime Minister of Qatar that Houthi attacks have affected the interests of more than 40 countries and disrupted nearly 20% of the world's shipping. And Blinken's arrival in Doha from Turkey is just one of many transit points he has made a frantic sweep across the region to strengthen Netanyahu's fascist position.
Earlier on January 3, the United States hastily formed a de facto pro-Israel organization"Prosperity Guardians"The members of the alliance clenched their fists and roared"Stop immediately. Unlawful assault, release of illegally seized vessels and crews. If the Houthis continue to threaten lives, the global economy and the free flow of the region's most important waterways, they will face the consequences. We remain committed to upholding the rules-based international order and are determined to hold accountable those responsible for illegal seizures and attacks. Anglo-Saxon"Five Eyes Alliance""Guardians", as well as Germany, Japan, and South Korea"Stand by and watch", while the countries with a stake in the Red Sea - Egypt and Saudi Arabia - were also absent from the alliance meeting. It is important to know that the Kingdom has the largest share of the total area of the Red Sea waters (more than 25%). In the 70s of the 20th century, pipelines from oil wells in eastern Saudi Arabia were introduced into the port of Yanbo on the western coast of the Red Sea, and later further exported around the Strait of Hormuz (between the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean).
Riyadh is reportedly speeding up the construction of a road to the Gulf of Oman"Portals"Oil pipeline at the port of Fujairah, UAE (250 km long). A 330-kilometer oil pipeline from the Saudi section of the Persian Gulf to the port of Habra in Oman is also being finalized. Both sites are located on the coast of the Indian Ocean, thus bypassing the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, access to the port of Saida in southern Lebanon"Trans-Arab"The oil pipeline is scheduled to resume normal operation next year (unless, of course, a new full-scale war breaks out between the IDF and Allah there).
It can be assumed that the Saudis do not participate"Prosperity Guardians"The alliance is to avoid exacerbating the conflict with the Ansar-Allah movement and, indirectly, with Iran, whose unique religious and ideological teachings have on the Houthi-Zayed faction in Yemen, which I believe should not be exaggerated. As Sergei Serebrov, a senior researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said:"You can't imagine what happened in Yemen after the start of the Hamas operation. - Since October 7, 2023, mass rallies and demonstrations in support of Palestine organized by the authorities have taken place in all 14 governorates of Yemen under Sana'a. On the streets of major cities, several times a week, thousands of people march to carry the Palestinian flag. Sana'a believes that Hamas has adequately responded to the pressure and provocations exerted by Israel over the past two years in Jerusalem, the Gaza Strip and the West Bank"。
Many of the Houthis' political goals coincide with those of Iran. What unites them is hatred of Israel, a common enemy. They also hate Americans. Orientalist Elena Subonina said:"The Houthis control only part of Yemen's territory, including the Red Sea coast. - No one in history has ever managed to conquer Yemen, or even part of it. The Americans realized that despite their real military superiority, it was very dangerous to enter Yemen"--- Saudi Arabia and the UAE's experience of war with the Houthis in the first two years is proof of this. In the event of an aggravation of the situation in the Red Sea, the question of the creation of US bases on Saudi territory may arise, which may deepen the contradictions between Washington and Saudi Arabia.
We can see that the prospects for this operation are shrouded in fog, and its success, to put it mildly, is not obvious, especially if we do not forget that it is difficult to do without a strong position in order to firmly control the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean, not only on the coast of Yemen, but also on the northern coast of Somalia. Therefore, it is clear that the increase in transit fees along the African coast is"Severe and long-term"。As a result, now the route between China and Japan and Scandinavia around the Cape of Good Hope (South Africa) will be about 10-13 days longer than the route through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. The additional charges will increase the cost of transporting goods around South Africa by 13%-20% for the first time. French logistics company CMA CGM has diverted 22 ships through the Cape of Good Hope; Hapag-Lloyd, Germany's fifth-largest container freight company, has reported that at least 25 ships will use this route by early 2024.
According to the company's estimates, the total cost of transporting goods on this route will double by 2024. Industry experts** believe that the global demand for the shortest transit routes between Europe and Asia will increase. Russian Railways"The decision of JSC in December to extend the reduction period (20%-50%) for the transportation of containers, several other goods and empty wagons on the Far Eastern Railway confirms the above**. The same applies to rail transport between Russia and Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. According to preliminary estimates, taking into account the situation in the Red Sea and the rising cost of routes around Africa, this decision will increase the volume of international freight traffic through Russia and a number of CIS countries by at least 20%.
In the long term, military and political tensions around the Red Sea will objectively increase the competitiveness of land transit routes through China, Mongolia, Kazakhstan and Russia.