In recent years, panel manufacturers have tried their best to seek transformation and reduce the proportion of their own industry to avoid being hit by the downturn of the economic cycle. Although production has been reduced in 2023, it is still not optimistic about whether it can turn into a profit, and manufacturers hope that the economic cycle in 2024 can turn positive under the recovery of consumption.
AUO announced at its pre-Lunar New Year corporate briefing that its total revenue for 2023 was NT$2,479600 million yuan, an increase of 05%；The net loss attributable to owners of the parent company for the year was 18.2 billion yuan, and the basic loss per share was 237 yuan. AUO emphasized that although it will lose money in 2023, it will be significantly lower than in 2022, and its revenue will also increase compared with 2022, and although terminal demand in 2024 is uncertain, it has shown signs of recovery.
Peng Shuanglang, Chairman of AUO, said that during the epidemic in 2020, there was a wave of computer purchases due to working from home, and this year and next year coincided with the wave of computer replacement, and events such as the European Cup football are expected to drive large-size TV sales. The overall economy in 2024 is less certain, but there are still several optimistic factors, including a halt to US rate hikes, inflation within the predictable range, and the opportunity for rate cuts in the second half of the year.
Some people say that shorts go for one year and long goes for two years, but in fact it is not inevitable, like 2022 and 2023 for two consecutive years.
As for whether the boom cycle of the panel industry can turn upward in 2024, Chen Jianzhu, a senior analyst at the International Data Information Company (IDC), said that due to the rational production of panel factories on the supply side, the panel will remain stable. In the future, the demand for the second quarter can be observed, and if the second quarter increases compared with the first quarter, the panel has the opportunity to continue** and enter the upward rhythm of the economic cycle.
Chen Jianzhu bluntly said,At this stage, the overall demand for panels is still sluggish,Although the demand for TV panels from some manufacturers has increased,But it still can't reverse the trend of decreasing in the first quarter compared with last year4quarter。
As for the Red Sea crisis, he believes that in the short term, there is no situation where panel buyers will increase their purchases due to tight supply and demand; Japan** has only caused some types and sizes of wide-angle panels to be affected, even if the supply of upstream polarizers of some specifications of panels is tight, but whether it causes long-term supply and demand tension still needs to be observed.
Xie Qinyi, senior research director of the display department of OMDIA, pointed out that the demand for panels is expected to rise in the second quarter, and consumers are gradually starting to buy large-size TVs, which is conducive to panel factories gradually entering the first boom cycle.
In the past 10 years, there are several obvious examples of the downward cycle of the panel economy, including the market downturn after the financial tsunami, the United States offering the "antitrust law" to accuse Asian panel factories of manipulation, and the rapid expansion of Chinese panel factories to grab market share, resulting in serious oversupply.
As for the timing of the downturn in the panel industry caused by the above factors, in addition to the financial tsunami in 2009, it was the United States to offer the "antitrust law" to Asian panel factories, and in 2010, after the announcement of heavy fines, the panel double tiger AUO and Innolux showed losses.
Subsequently, under the full expansion of production capacity of China's panel factories, the market was oversupplied, resulting in a loss in the first three quarters of 2016, until the fourth quarter of that year turned into a profit, turning the whole year of 2016 into a profit in one fell swoop; However, the panel boom showed an upward trend in 2019, not only in 2019, but also in the third quarter of 2020 before turning a profit in a single quarter, coupled with the continuous profit in the fourth quarter, so that the whole year of 2020 also turned into a profit.
In 2021, the panel double tiger made a profit in every quarter, and in the second quarter of 2022, it began to turn into a loss, and AUO has announced a loss of 0. per share in the fourth quarter of last year in a recent briefing2 yuan, a loss of 2 per share in 202337 yuan, Innolux, which has not yet announced its financial report for the fourth quarter of last year, may not be easy to reverse the loss situation, and can only hope that the prosperity in 2024 can turn positive and reverse the dilemma of industrial losses.
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