Michigan is one of the "swing states" in the United States, and the Democratic primary is scheduled to be held on the 27th. According to the United States**22**, Arab voters in the state are extremely dissatisfied with the position of Democratic **Joseph Biden in favoring Israel and unwilling to call for an immediate ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, and are ready to express ** through the primary**.
This is a photo taken of U.S. ** Biden at the White House in Washington, D.C., on May 17, 2023. Xinhua News Agency (photo by Shen Ting).
Annoyed with the "swing state".
According to Politico, the Michigan Democratic primary may provide the clearest evidence to date around the clear disagreements within the Democratic Party about federal policy toward Israel and Biden's performance in office. Democrats such as Senator Darrin Camillery of Michigan worry that the Biden campaign may simply not realize how deeply dissatisfied Arab voters and younger voters are with its pro-Israel stance.
Since the outbreak of the new Palestinian-Israeli conflict on October 7 last year, Biden** has refused to call for an Israeli ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, citing the grounds that the ceasefire would "fuel" the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas). Since the outbreak of the conflict, the United States has not only increased its military presence in the Middle East and actively provided military assistance to Israel, but has also obstructed the adoption of relevant draft resolutions by the UN Security Council, thus drawing criticism from many quarters.
A poll last October showed that 59% of Arab voters in the United States supported Biden during the 2020** election. This percentage dropped to 35% before the outbreak of the current round of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and to 17% after the outbreak of the conflict**.
People participate in a rally in solidarity with Palestine in Washington, D.C., on January 13. Xinhua News Agency (photo by Aaron).
Camillery argues that the situation now feels like a "return to 2016" when Republican Donald Trump won a "surprise" victory in Michigan, when Democrats felt that the Democratic national leadership was not listening to "demands from the grassroots." Camillery warned that if Biden does not adjust his current position, it will not be a surprise to lose Michigan in the November election.
Michigan is a "rust belt," and the key to Trump's victory in 2016 was to win over working-class voters who feel marginalized because of their economic woes.
Michigan also has the highest concentration of Arab Americans in the United States, with about 200,000 registered voters being Muslims. Biden narrowly defeated Trump in Michigan by a narrow margin of 150,000 votes, or less than 3 percentage points, in the 2020** election. In the 2022 midterm elections, the Democratic Party, supported by young voters, took full control of Michigan** and Democratic Gratchen Whitmer was re-elected governor.
A Democratic campaign strategist pointed out that Biden's performance in the current round of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has put Democrats "in trouble" in Michigan, and "as the violence in the Gaza Strip continues, it is increasingly challenging for voters to regain support for Biden." Politico analysis pointed out that given the key role of Michigan in the ** election, even if Biden only loses a part of the votes of progressive voters, he may lose the state and even the whole **.
On April 24, 2023, Biden attended an event at the White House in Washington, D.C., the capital of the United States. Xinhua News Agency (photo by Aaron).
"Wait and see".
According to the Associated Press, Biden's ally in the House of Representatives Ro Connor met separately with a number of Arab community leaders in Dearborn, Michigan, on the 22nd. But judging from the results of the meeting, Biden is unlikely to win back the support of the Arab community in Michigan unless he reverses his stance on a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip because of the deep differences.
One of the Arab community leaders told Connor that a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip was just the beginning, and they also wanted Biden to push the local population to receive humanitarian aid, rebuild the Gaza Strip and resume funding for the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), which had been "cut off."
Biden has recently publicly expressed a position that is inconsistent with Israel, including supporting the "two-state solution" and warning Israel not to launch a ground offensive against the southern port city of Rafah in the Gaza Strip, which seems to be deliberately pandering to a specific group of voters. However, in the view of Connor, who has repeatedly communicated with voters on behalf of Biden, if he only makes verbal promises and does not change the basic direction of foreign policy, it will instead attract young voters, Muslim and Arab voters, and even other minority voters to deepen their antipathy towards Biden.
Voters vote in the Republican primary at a polling station in Manchester, New Hampshire, U.S., on January 23. Xinhua News Agency (photo by Zhu Ziyu).
Statewide in Michigan, Democrats are pushing voters to write "no statement" on the primary ballot on the 27th to send a message to Biden. Rashida Talib, the only Palestinian congressman in the U.S. Congress, expressed support for the event.
The Associated Press reasoned that the event would not prevent Biden from winning an easy Democratic primary in Michigan, but could embarrass Biden.
Politico said that the Biden campaign team privately said that they could not immediately appease Michigan voters, and had set their sights on the ** election in November, and the campaign strategy was to let voters choose between Biden and the "less conventional" Trump, which is expected to re-energize their voting enthusiasm. Trump is the favourite for the Republican Party's ** candidate.
However, the accuracy of this judgment is still inconclusive. Two Michigan voters who voted for Biden in the 2020** election said they were reluctant to act as a "cheap voter" and that they might vote neither Biden nor Trump in the November election, they could choose someone else, or call for a ceasefire again on their ballots. Even if that would send Trump to the White House, it doesn't matter, "we've put up with him for four years anyway."
*Xinhua.
Edited by Gao Chenchen.
Process Editor: Ma Xiaoshuang.