"Awake fighting" Dongpeng Beverage (605499SH), the market value is "tired and sleepy"?
On January 27, Dongpeng Beverage announced its performance forecast for 2023: it is expected to reach 1105.7 billion yuan-1131.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30%-33%; Net profit is expected to be in the range of 198.9 billion yuan-206.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38%-43%. According to Dongpeng's previously announced third quarter report for 2023, there are still hidden concerns behind its performance growth.
Just two days before the release of the performance forecast, Dongpeng Beverage announced that the company's second largest shareholder, Junzheng Investment, will not exceed 3% of the company's total share capital in the bidding transaction and bulk method, and according to the price on January 25, the first share will be expected to cash out nearly 2 billion yuan.
Fuji Research According to the third quarterly report of Dongpeng Beverage, it was found that in the first three quarters of 2023, the proportion of sales revenue of Dongpeng Special Drink fell to 9259%。At present, Dongpeng Beverage is mainly facing problems such as over-reliance on "Dongpeng Special Drink" and hindered diversification, which is mainly due to the dilution of net profit due to Dongpeng Beverage's excessively high marketing expenses; At the same time, Dongpeng Beverage's multi-product matrix has not yet been formed, and the revenue contribution of a single product "Dongpeng Special Drink" is too high, which has also become a risk that cannot be ignored.
Dongpeng Beverage is a company whose main business is the research and development, production and sales of beverages, and its main products include Dongpeng Special Drink, Dongpeng Big Coffee, Dongpeng Hydration, Packaged Drinking Water and other fields; Among them, "Dongpeng Special Drink" is the leading product of Dongpeng Beverage.
As of February 1, A-shares**, Dongpeng Beverage closed at 16625 yuan shares, corresponding to a market value of 6650 billion yuan; This compares to the market capitalization high of 824 in March 2023200 million yuan, and its market value has evaporated 159200 million yuan.
Fuji Research According to its performance forecast report, it is found that in 2023, Dongpeng Beverage's revenue is expected to reach 1105.7 billion yuan-1131.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30%-33%; In the same period, net profit is expected to be in the range of 198.9 billion yuan-206.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38%-43%.
In an old article in August 2023 ("Energy dependence in the first half of the year is unsolved, how does Dongpeng "wake up"?) 》We focus on Dongpeng's continuous involution in the functional beverage track, although it is the "first stock of functional drinks" on its head, it is still facing problems such as unsolved dependence on large single products.
Today, Dongpeng Beverage is not only facing the problems of declining sales revenue of large single products and frequent shareholders, but also facing the challenge that the second curve has not yet formed.
In the second half of the functional drink, how does Dongpeng Beverage "wake up and fight"? As a result, Fuji Research has updated some of the data and charts from the previous article in August last year, as follows:
Recently, Dongpeng Beverage, the "first stock of functional drinks", disclosed its 2023 annual performance forecast.
Fuji Research According to its performance forecast, it is found that in 2023, Dongpeng Beverage's revenue is expected to reach 1105.7 billion yuan-1131.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30%-33%; Net profit is expected to be in the range of 198.9 billion yuan-206.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38%-43%.
Today, functional drinks have entered the second half, and the involution is more intense. Dongpeng Beverage is still facing problems such as shrinking market value and shareholders, can it run out of its comfort zone?
In 2003, Lin Muqin, the sales director of Dongpeng, took out all his net worth and bought all the property rights of Dongpeng Beverage, which was on the verge of bankruptcy, with 20 internal employees, and made up the registered capital, but it has been in a tepid state since then.
The rise of Dongpeng Beverage may be due to the Red Bull market explosion in 2009. Lin Muqin switched to functional drinks and launched Dongpeng Special Drink, drawing on Red Bull's slogan and playing the slogan of "Tired and sleepy, drink Dongpeng Special Drink".
In 2016, Red Bull started a trademark battle, and Dongpeng Beverage took the opportunity to seize the blank market and raise prices to enter the high-end market. In 2017, it was the first to launch a 500ml bottle product priced at 5 yuan, and then its revenue increased exponentially, completing the handover of new and old products.
By reducing the cost of packaging, in the form of bottled beverages, Dongpeng Special Drink will be priced at 3 yuan bottles, and enter the market at a low price. As of 2017, its 250ml bottled product revenue has reached 241.3 billion.
On the top of the "first stock of functional drinks", Dongpeng Beverage landed in the capital market on May 27, 2021. In the following month, 15 daily limits were pulled out in a row, and in July of the same year, the share price of Dongpeng Beverage once rose to 280 yuan, and the total market value exceeded 110 billion. , and then the stock price***
On May 27, 2022, the initial shareholder of Dongpeng Beverage** was lifted one after another. On May 25, on the eve of the lifting of the ban, Junzheng Investment issued a "** Plan Notification Letter" to Dongpeng Beverage, which planned to ** off one-third of its shares, that is, no more than 12 million shares.
At the same time, Dongpeng Beverage's senior management team has also joined the ranks. On May 29, 2023, Dongpeng Beverage issued the "Announcement on the Share Plan of Shareholders and Directors, Supervisors and Senior Executives", which disclosed the total number of shares proposed by 13 directors, executives and major shareholders of the company, which in total does not exceed 8 of the company's total share capital94%, corresponding to a market value of up to 6 billion yuan.
According to its third quarter report for 2023, in the first three quarters of 2023, Dongpeng Beverage's operating income was 864.1 billion yuan, compared with 66 in the same period last year4.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3005%；It is mainly due to the continuous increase in the sales revenue of 500ml gold bottles. During the reporting period, the net profit reached 165.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4205%。
As an imitator of Red Bull, one of the inevitable problems of Dongpeng Beverage is: "It is difficult for the imitator to sell higher than the imitated". Take Tmall Supermarket** as an example, the same 250ml bottle of product, Red Bull is about 4 after the event**5 yuan bottle, and after the Dongpeng special drink event** is about 2$1.
A number of Gen Z energy drink enthusiasts told Fuji Research that their impression of Dongpeng Special Drink is "too earthy", "copycat Red Bull", and "not high-grade enough".
The rise of Dongpeng Beverage mainly stems from grasping the favorable opportunity of the market, Lin Muqin has extraordinary vision and courage, and bought the property rights of Dongpeng Beverage at the risk of bankruptcy, and the initial investment has obtained more than 10,000 times the income, thanks to the "support" of Red Bull.
In the view of Fuji Research, Dongpeng Beverage's shareholders are frequent, and it may be difficult to support its high valuation with only a single product, but if it wants to continue to grow, it needs to specialize in its own way.
Dongpeng Beverage's main business is the research and development, production and sales of beverages, and the company's products cover two major types, such as Dongpeng Special Drink and other beverages, but the proportion of its Dongpeng Special Drink sales revenue is far higher than that of other types of products.
According to the financial report data of Dongpeng Beverage over the years, in the first three quarters of 2020-2023, the proportion of its Dongpeng Special Drink sales revenue to the company's total revenue is respectively. 51%。
According to the data of Dongpeng Beverage's third quarter report in 2023, Dongpeng Special Drink, as a core product, has a sales revenue of 79 in the first three quarters of 20239.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2506%, and the proportion of revenue is as high as 9259%。
In the first three quarters of 2023, the sales revenue of other beverages was 64 billion yuan, accounting for only 741%, the contrast is stark.
When a product is in the early stage of the outbreak stage, the management cost of a single product is low, and the company can enjoy a higher net profit rate; However, single-product dependence also exacerbates the risk, and once there is a problem in the energy drink industry or its own brand, Dongpeng Beverage will be greatly impacted.
According to data from Huajing Industry Research Institute, from 2016 to 2021, the sales of energy drinks grew rapidly, with a compound annual growth rate of 937%, according to the China Business Industry Research Institute**, China's functional beverage market will reach 186.4 billion yuan in 2025.
In the 2023 semi-annual report, Dongpeng Beverage cited Nielsen IQ data as saying that in terms of retail sales in the first half of 2023, Dongpeng Special Drink ranked first in China's energy drink market, accounting for 367% to 4086%。
In order to cultivate new profit growth points, Dongpeng Beverage mentioned in the semi-annual report that it will continue to expand the second growth curve and actively deploy coffee drinks, electrolyte drinks, sugar-free tea drinks and other fields.
According to statistics, in 2023, Dongpeng Beverage will launch a total of 4 new products, namely "Dongpeng Hydration", Dongpeng Special Drink Sports Nutrition Food (Endurance), Pengyou Tea Sugar-free Oolong Tea, and Island Coconut Coconut Water; At the beginning of 2024, Dongpeng Beverage launched a new cocktail product "Vivi Cocktail".
At the same time, Dongpeng Beverage's marketing expenses continue to grow, but the proportion of R&D is relatively low. From 2020 to the first three quarters of 2023, Dongpeng Beverage's marketing expenses were 90.4 billion yuan, 136.8 billion yuan, 144.9 billion yuan, 14$2.1 billion; Its R&D expenses were 3554250,000 yuan, 427990,000 yuan, 4375480,000 yuan, 4314080,000 yuan, the proportion of R&D is. 50%。
In the view of Fuji Research, the competition in the energy drink market is becoming increasingly fierce, and although Dongpeng Beverage has a very high market demand and has increased national trust through social networking and popular film and television drama implantation, its newly expanded business is still unstable. Dongpeng Beverage hopes to sell alcohol across borders to create a second growth curve, and there is still a long way to go.
However, this track has attracted a lot of capital and giant layout, and the future is not yet known. The laying of channels is indispensable, but product categories are also inseparable from competitiveness.
In addition to energy dependence, Dongpeng Beverage has faced a relatively severe regional dependence.
Blue Whale Finance said in the "Dongpeng Beverage's Half-Year Results: "Energy" Dependence Increases, Market Value Evaporates by Nearly 40 Billion Yuan, and the North-South Imbalance Intensifies" released in July 2021, Lin Muqin said at the beginning of Dongpeng Beverage's listing that in the future, on the one hand, it will continue to promote the market expansion of the original category and intensively cultivate the northern provinces that have not developed enough markets before.
According to its financial report, Dongpeng Beverage's sales revenue is mainly in the Guangdong region, and the proportion of revenue generated in the Guangdong region from 2020 to the first half of 2023 is respectively. 50%。
According to Dongpeng Beverage's 2023 semi-annual report, its main business income in Guangdong (including Guangdong Province and Hainan Province except for the special channel in the southern region) increased by 14% year-on-year05%, accounting for as much as 3445%。
In the first half of 2023, its sales revenue in the whole country (except for the Guangdong region and the direct sales headquarters) will increase by 3% year-on-year, and the main revenue will account for 5484%, which has exceeded the Guangdong region.
Previously, in terms of sales channels, Dongpeng Beverage relied too much on the distributor model and neglected to build its own channels. Its prospectus and financial reports over the years show that from 2020 to the first half of 2023, the proportion of the company's distribution revenue is. 29%, the proportion of direct revenue. 71%。
Although Dongpeng Beverage's sales area has been expanding, its nationalization has been relatively slow. Competitors such as Reignwood's Red Bull, War Horse and Zhongwo's Physical Energy occupy a large share in the northern market, which makes Dongpeng Beverage's expansion in the northern market face certain challenges.
In order to accelerate the process of nationalization, Dongpeng Beverage disclosed that in February 2023, it plans to set up a wholly-owned subsidiary in Tianjin, and plans to invest 600 million yuan to establish a production base. In November of the same year, Dongpeng Beverage announced that the two production lines of the Zhejiang production base were officially put into operation.
It is worth noting that the capacity utilization rate of Dongpeng Beverage does not seem to be difficult to support the current capacity demand, and the financial report shows that the company has a total design capacity of 2.8 million tons in 2022, with a capacity utilization rate of about 74%.
In the view of Fuji Research, although Dongpeng Beverage is the "first stock of functional drinks", if it wants to go long-term, it must jump out of the comfort zone, break through regional restrictions, develop to the whole country, and enrich the product structure at the same time; Obviously, these are no small challenges for the current Dongpeng Beverage.
In 2013, Dongpeng Beverage invited Nicholas Tse to endorse its core product Dongpeng Special Drink, and sounded the clarion call for rejuvenation and nationalization with the words "If you are young, you must be awake and fight", "If you are tired and sleepy, you will drink Dongpeng Special Drink".
In 2015, Red Bull was caught in a trademark dispute, while Dongpeng Beverage seized the opportunity and rose rapidly, but it has not been able to get rid of the "original sin" of imitation.
There are more than one hidden danger of Dongpeng Beverage: it is highly dependent on a single product, etc.; If it fails to break through these "ceilings", it will face fierce competition.
Red Bull is in front, and rising stars have arrived, such as Devil's Claw Beverage hired Wang Yibo to endorse, with a younger attitude, impacting "young must be awake and fight".
At present, Dongpeng Beverage is mainly facing problems such as over-reliance on "Dongpeng Special Drink" and hindered diversification, which is mainly due to the dilution of net profit due to Dongpeng Beverage's excessively high marketing expenses; At the same time, Dongpeng Beverage's multi-product matrix has not yet been formed, and the revenue contribution of a single product "Dongpeng Special Drink" is too high, which has also become a risk that cannot be ignored.
In addition to "Dongpeng Special Drink", in the second half of the functional drink, how does Dongpeng Beverage "wake up and fight"?
Some references in this article:
1."The performance is promising, and the two shareholders of Dongpeng Special Drink want to have a huge amount of **....International Finance News.
2."Major shareholders and executives have "*Dongpeng Beverage! Food Officer.
3."Dongpeng Beverage Again Emergence Plan", scale business.
4."Throw ** plan again! The two shareholders of Dongpeng Beverage plan to cash out 2 billion", Daojun said Cai.
Author |Yixin Shuichi.
Typography | cathy
Executive Producer | yoda
Produced by |No two research.