On the evening of February 20, Haidilao released a gratifying performance forecast. Looking at this performance forecast, whether it is revenue or cash flow control, this is a result that seems to be very satisfactory to the group management and exceeds expectations.
According to the announcement, as of December 31, 2023, the group's income from continuing operations is expected to be no less than 41.4 billion yuan, with an increase of no less than 333%。
In the results announcement, Haidilao bluntly pointed out that the increase was mainly due to the increase in customer traffic and improved business performance of Haidilao restaurants with the lifting of control measures against the new crown epidemic and economic recovery.
In addition, compared to the 2022 year 16With a net profit of 400 million yuan (excluding the international business of Tehai), Haidilao's net profit in 2023 will not be less than 4.4 billion yuan. Excluding the impact of foreign exchange gains and losses, the Group's net profit in the second half of 2023 is expected to increase by no less than 10% compared with the first half of 2023.
Carnival after the big environment
Before the outbreak of the epidemic, Haidilao had been intensively increasing its store opening plan. From domestic to overseas, Haidilao has always been a symbolic existence in the catering industry.
According to the data disclosed by Haidilao, in 2019, the company achieved revenue of 265600 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 565%, net profit 23500 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 423%。
In that year's annual report, Haidilao mentioned that it opened 308 new restaurants in the past year, and as of December 30, 2019, it had 768 stores worldwide, of which 716 were located in Chinese mainland and 52 were located in Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan and overseas.
Factors such as the high-frequency store opening speed, the change of financial calculation methods, and the slowdown in same-store consumption growth have put some pressure on Haidilao's performance.
In 2019, Haidilao's overall average daily sales of the same store increased by only 16%, up from 6 last yearThe decline of 2% was obvious, with a slight decline in the growth rate of same-store sales in first- and second-tier cities with a deep layout, and a higher growth rate in same-store sales in areas below the third-tier and outside the mainland.
According to public information from multiple parties, in 2018, after the turnover rate of Haidilao's existing restaurants reached its peak, the turnover rate of Haidilao in 2019 declined across the board, and the turnover rate in first-tier cities increased from 51 day slipped to 47 times a day, second-tier cities by 53 times the day slipped to 49 times a day.
It's just that Haidilao at that time just began to realize that ** was wrong, and before he had time to think about it, the "black swan" of the epidemic flew quickly, directly making Haidilao "hit the rocks"!
Under the occasional epidemic, under the operation of opening a large number of stores and launching the "woodpecker" plan (closing stores and disposing of assets), Haidilao's performance in 2021-2022 has also suffered a blow.
The problems caused by poor performance have made Haidilao a frequent visitor to Weibo's hot search list. In 2022, "Why don't people like to eat Haidilao" once sparked a discussion.
Netizens commented, "Previously, Haidilao's signature was service, but now the service of the entire catering industry has been improved, and Haidilao is no longer prominent", "The taste is relatively simple, and it is getting more and more expensive".
However, behind this, in addition to Haidilao, which has been changed by the epidemic, there are also consumers who have been changed by the epidemic!
Although the catering industry is the hardest hit industry in the epidemic, however, after the epidemic, the catering industry is also one of the best industries.
Zhu Danpeng, a senior researcher at the China Food Industry Research Institute, was quoted as saying"Haidilao's performance in 2023 is expected, and the strong rebound in Haidilao's performance is inseparable from the background of the recovery of the catering industry. ”
Build on your strengths, not make up for them
In this Haidilao's performance forecast, the company expects that the net profit in 2023 will be no less than 4.4 billion yuan, which is just enough to cover the loss in 2021 and a slight surplus. Haidilao made it clear in the performance forecast that the increase in net profit was mainly due to the increase in the turnover rate of Haidilao restaurants and the improvement of operational efficiency.
According to the 2023 semi-annual report previously released by Haidilao,The company's turnover rate reached 33 days, compared to 2 in the same period last year9 times a day. It is expected that in the annual results, Haidilao's turnover rate will be higher than 33 days, but it may be difficult to reach 4 days.
Haidilao's "personal" service is already its most differentiated feature, in recent years, the attributes of the service have been significantly strengthened by Haidilao, and the "play" is fascinating, and from time to time it will appear on Weibo hot search to become a public topic.
Although everyone knows that Haidilao's service is good enough, every time a new project is launched, it is still unconsciously doubtful that it is true or false.
A reporter from Jiupai News contacted Haidilao's public relations staff on this matter, saying: "This is a personalized innovation pilot carried out by the store, aiming to provide more rights and interests for members." In addition to Wuxi's shampoo service, Haidilao's special service of the pilot tufting experience project "Woolen Cottage" in Hangzhou Jincheng Road Store has attracted the attention of consumers. Not to mention the previous Haidilao bus to pick up the fans at the end of the concert to eat hot pot, as well as the subject three of the screen.
These news amplified by the market and personalized innovation in various places are Haidilao's innovative reforms, and they are also proof that Haidilao is well aware of its own differentiation.
After clear innovation, Haidilao no longer pursues the ultimate standardization, but delegates rights to various regions and allows them to grow "freely", to explore services that are more suitable for the local area.
In the first half of 2023, Haidilao has made a lot of attempts in regional innovation, launching products with local characteristics to strengthen the experience of local customers according to the needs of regional customers.
In addition to good service, it is often complained that it has become another label of Haidilao.
According to the "2022 Hot Pot Category Development Report" released by Meituan and Yicai Business Data Center, the per capita consumption amount of hot pot consumers is concentrated below 100 yuan, of which 50-100 yuan is the most, and affordable hot pot seems to have become a popular trend.
Last year, Haidilao also tested the waters and launched a new sub-brand, Hi Lao Hot Pot, with the evaluation of hot pot as a selling point. It is reported that the first store of Hi Lao hot pot is located in Beijing Longhu Beiyuan Tianjie. The ** on the menu is much lower than Haidilao, and the unit price is only 76 yuan, compared to 102 in Haidilao's financial report in the first half of the yearThe per capita consumption of 9 yuan** is much lower. Parity naturally corresponds to a simplified service.
In addition to the characteristics of parity, it remains to be seen whether Hi Lao hot pot can stand on its feet in the market in the long run.
In recent years, Haidilao has also successively incubated sub-brands such as Lao Pai Youmian, Qin Xiaoxian, and Bai Bran Private Noodles, but they all seem to be tepid, and Haidilao is the loudest in terms of brand awareness.
Conclusion
According to the data of the Bureau of Statistics, in 2023, the national catering revenue will be 5,289 billion yuan, an increase of 204%；The catering revenue of units above designated size was 1,335.6 billion yuan, an increase of 20 percent year-on-year9%。
It is not difficult to see that catering has always been an industry that has recovered and grown well in the past two years, and the vitality of the entire industry is still there. Even Quanjude, which had been losing money for several years before the epidemic, began to usher in spring again.
Whether Haidilao can seize the opportunity again and be a leader again is worth looking forward to!
Disclaimer] The content of the article is for research and study purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice.