In June 2022, the NATO Summit in Madrid released a new strategic concept document, NATO Strategic Vision 2022. As a programmatic document guiding NATO's strategic transformation, the Strategic Concept is updated every 10 years or so. The document transforms Russia from a "strategic partner" into "the most significant and immediate threat." In its strategic vision, adopted in 2010, NATO positioned Russia as a "partner" and pursued a parallel policy of deterrence, defense, and dialogue with Russia.
Recently, a number of high-ranking military ** NATO member states have warned that NATO may have a war with Russia in the future. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius warned that the war between Russia and Ukraine could extend beyond its neighbors, according to Reference News on January 19**. British Defense Secretary Grant Shapps has also previously warned that the UK should be prepared for a possible conflict with Russia and other countries in the next five years.
How will Russia respond?
In the context of Ukraine's setback, the relationship between NATO's large-scale exercises and the Russia-Ukraine conflict has also sparked discussions in the outside world. Zhao Chen said that there has been "civil unrest" in Ukraine recently. The news that Ukraine's ** Zelensky will depose the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Zaluzhny has been circulating in Ukraine and the West for several days. The lack of implementation of military aid from the United States and Europe has also raised concerns in Ukraine. NATO's exercises are a form of support for Ukrainian militants. In addition, NATO is also worried about the spillover effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the attack on NATO member states, and needs to have relevant plans to test its combat effectiveness and demonstrate its strength through large-scale exercises. Zhao Chen said.
EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell said on January 31 that the EU could not achieve its target of delivering 1 million artillery shells to Ukraine by March and could only deliver 5240,000 shells, about 52% of the total. Stated goals. 。Pentagon spokesman Ryder said on January 4 that the United States' military aid funds for Ukraine have run out. Unless the US Congress passes a new aid package, Washington will be "left with no money." In early December, Republicans in the U.S. Senate vetoed a bill containing about $61 billion in aid to Ukraine.
However, analysts pointed out that NATO's use of military exercises to deter Russia will not have a substantial impact on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield. William Courtney, a former US diplomat and part-time senior researcher at the RAND Corporation, believes that in the face of NATO's largest military exercises since the end of the Cold War, Russia is watching, but not alarmed.
Russia reacted strongly to NATO's large-scale large-scale military exercises. On January 26, Russian spokeswoman Zakharova said that NATO's ongoing "Steadfast Guardian 2024" military exercises will increase the risk of a military conflict between Russia and NATO countries.
Zakharova said that the location of the NATO military exercises was chosen near the Russian border, and she made no secret of the fact that she would practice the operation of "containing the Russian threat". This reflects the intention of NATO countries to provoke Russia in the hope of escalating the situation. 。Therefore, although Russia has no intention of attacking any NATO country, this exercise will undoubtedly increase the probability of a military conflict between the two sides, which in turn will have "tragic consequences" for European countries.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Glushko said on the 21st that the scale of NATO's "Steadfast Guardian 2024" military exercise marks the alliance's "irreversible return" to the Cold War plan.
Zhao Chen believes that Russia may respond to NATO's large-scale exercises by holding strategic-level military exercises and adjusting military deployments. However, the scale of the exercise remains to be seen, as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has tied down many Russian forces.
According to the global network on December 17, 2023, Russia's Putin warned Finland in an interview published in Russia on the 17th that Finland's accession to NATO earlier this year would be "problematic", and Moscow will respond to Russia's response by establishing a new military district in northwestern Russia.
It is worth mentioning that on January 25, Russia** Putin arrived in the Kaliningrad Oblast, a Russian enclave between Poland and Lithuania, the day after the start of NATO exercises. On the same day, Putin met with Kaliningrad Governor Alikhanov and held a meeting on local social and economic development and other issues. Putin also had exchanges with local students. Putin said that each country should be guided by its own interests and respect the interests of its partners. Russia will never give up its interests.
Russian press secretary Dmitry Peskov previously said that Putin's visit to Kaliningrad was not a "signal" to NATO countries, but only a routine work of the head of state within the framework of regional inspections.
Kaliningrad is a Russian enclave in the Baltic region. It is bordered by Finland and Sweden to the north, Poland to the south, the Baltic Sea to the west, and Lithuania to the east and northeast. The state covers an area of about 15,000 square kilometers. It is home to the headquarters of Russia's Baltic Fleet, where an inter-service military cluster is deployed and has a strong defense.
Earlier it was reported that the German Ministry of Defense "has begun rehearsals of the war with Russia after the defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine." The conflict could officially erupt in the summer of 2025 in the Suwałki corridor between Belarus and the Kaliningrad region. 。The report also said that NATO will decide on deterrence measures in May 2025 and will use 300,000 soldiers, including 30,000 Wehrmacht soldiers.
Russian spokeswoman Zakharova scoffed at the report, calling it a "constellation" At the same time, Russia's Vladimir Putin denied any plans to attack NATO. He said there were "no geopolitical, economic or military interests" in Russia waging war against NATO.