Zhitong Finance and Economics learned that CICC released a research report saying that in the first half of 2023, the trading situation of CCER in China's local carbon market will be different: Beijing and Shanghai** are higher; With the resumption of CCER, it is clear that it is a centralized and unified transaction across the country, and since the second half of 2023, CCER** in various places has been closed. Since 2023, the CCER rule system has been continuously improved, and detailed rules for project design, registration, transaction settlement, project validation and emission reduction verification have been continuously promulgated, establishing an institutional foundation for the healthy operation of the market. Looking ahead, the bank believes that the supply of CCER may be released slowly, and the demand may increase with the expansion of the national carbon market.
CICC's views are as follows:
In the context of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, the realization of corporate carbon assets is expected to accelerate, highlighting low-carbon competitiveness
Concept and classification of carbon assetsCarbon assets are an important category of green assets, and they have a relatively clear market-oriented monetization mechanism compared with environmental rights and interests such as pollutant discharge rights and water rights. Carbon assets are divided into broad and narrow senses, mainly including carbon emission rights assets and carbon emission reduction assets, and carbon assets in the narrow sense mainly refer to tradable assets such as carbon allowances and carbon credits; Broadly defined carbon assets refer to carbon emission reduction-related resources that are expected to bring economic benefits to enterprises.
Since the "dual carbon" goal was proposed, market-oriented mechanisms such as carbon market and green electricity and green certificate trading have been gradually built and improved, providing a broad space for the realization of carbon assets. The national carbon emission trading market: It has been running smoothly since its launch three years ago, and the carbon price has risen steadily. CCER officially restarted, with a trading volume of more than 370,000 tons on the first day, and is expected to usher in an increase in issuance in 2024, increasing green revenue for emission reduction enterprises. The issuance of green certificates is fully covered, and offshore wind power and distributed photovoltaic power are added to confirm the environmental value of renewable energy. The pilot of green power trading has been steadily promoted, and the average transaction price of green electricity in Jiangsu Province and Guangdong Province is 464 respectively44/ 465.64 yuan MWh.
China's mainstream carbon assets include carbon allowances and CCER. The trading market for both types of carbon assets is supervised by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, and CCER and carbon allowances are offset through a compliance offset mechanism. Green certificates are similar to renewable energy projects CCER, but they cannot be developed repeatedly under the premise of "uniqueness".
Development value of carbon assets: carbon emission rights and carbon emission reductions
The intrinsic value of carbon credited assetsFrom the perspective of climate economics, the theoretical carbon price is determined by the carbon emission reduction target and the marginal emission reduction cost curve. Carbon trading has strong policy attributes, and the total amount setting and quota allocation rules of the carbon market determine the supply and demand side of carbon allowances, which is the basis for the formation of carbon prices. Carbon price fluctuations are also affected by external factors such as energy**, macroeconomics, extreme weather, and policy events.
Valuation and financial analysis of carbon emission assetsCarbon emission rights are an important production factor for daily operations, and valuing them is the basis for carbon asset management, participation in carbon trading, and measurement of low-carbon competitiveness. Carbon asset valuation methods can be roughly divided into traditional methods such as market method, income method, and cost method, and innovative methods such as real option method, shadow method, and mathematical model method.
The development value of carbon reduction assetsAfter the restart of CCER, the validation requirements have become stricter and the monitoring requirements have been increased. Under the premise of uniqueness, the development value of CCER and green certificate is mainly determined by the regional power gridEmission factorsand CCER, green certificatesElasticityDecision. In the northern, northeastern, and northwest regional power grids with high emission factors, the development of renewable energy CCER has a relatively high cost performance. In the scenario of 65 yuan tonne of CCER**, the CCER** corresponding to a single green certificate (1 MWh of green power) in the northern, northeastern, and northwest power grids is 46 respectively27/42.98/43.32 yuan ton, higher than the actual average transaction price of green certificates since November 2023. Based on the guidance of 50 yuan for parity green certificates**, CCER needs to maintain a relatively high trading value** for its development value to be higher than that of green certificates.
Investment Value of Carbon Assets: An Overview of the Operation and Construction of China's Carbon Market
National carbon emission trading market: Steady progress, 2024 is expected to expand and upgrade. In 2023, the trading volume of national carbon allowances (CEA) will increase, and the cumulative trading volume of the whole year will be 2100 million tons, an increase of nearly 4 times compared with 2022, and the phenomenon of compliance and policy-driven transactions is more significant. In 2023, various factors will drive the national carbon quota to rise, with an average price of 6456 yuan ton, compared with the first performance cycle**38%. Looking ahead, we believe that the national carbon market is expected to make further progress in terms of industry expansion and upgrading, quota allocation optimization, and binding force improvement.
Regional carbon emission trading market: let a hundred flowers bloom and maintain the policy pilot function. In 2023, the average transaction price of carbon allowances in the eight regional pilot carbon markets across the country will be the most**, with Shenzhen having the largest increase and Beijing having the highest carbon price. In 2023, there will be a large difference in the trading volume of the national and regional carbon markets, with Fujian and Guangdong ranking first in terms of cumulative trading volume throughout the year.
CCER: Officially reopened, promoting the national carbon market towards a two-wheel drive. In the first half of 2023, the trading situation of CCER in China's local carbon market will be different: Beijing and Shanghai** are higher; With the resumption of CCER, it is clear that it is a centralized and unified transaction across the country, and since the second half of 2023, CCER** in various places has been closed. Since 2023, the CCER rule system has been continuously improved, and detailed rules for project design, registration, transaction settlement, project validation and emission reduction verification have been continuously promulgated, establishing an institutional foundation for the healthy operation of the market. Looking ahead, we believe that CCER supply may be released slowly, and demand may increase with the expansion of the national carbon market.