Two days ago, someone said, why are you always bearish on wheat? This is not wheat rising again!
Indeed, as the Chinese New Year approaches, corn and wheat have risen, which really makes the market quite excited.
WhileThe reasons for the two of them are similar:
It's all close to the Spring FestivalIn the early stage, those who sold grain in a panic and panic were almost sold, and those who sold grain before the plan were also sold almost, so the amount of grain began to decrease.
The amount is small and the price is risingCorn and wheat are the same logic.
Secondly,It is that after the new round of rain and snow weather is launched, the difficulty of grain transportation increasesIt affects corn, and it affects wheat.
So, corn, wheat ***
Corn's is exciting, while wheat's is boiling the market.
Because two other things are happening in the wheat market:
One is that a few days ago, the grain storage suddenly canceled a number of auctions in a row.
For example:China Grain Reserves Jiangsu Branch, Lanzhou Branch, Shandong Branch, Beijing Branch, etc. have successively canceled the announcement that the auction was scheduled for February 1.
If it is only a certain branch cancellation, there may be special reasons, but the cancellation of multiple branches together, and still at such a juncture, has to make people think deeply.
The other is a large premium in the auction of reserve wheat.
For example, on January 29, China Grain Reserve Henan Branch sold nearly 40,000 tons of wheat from 2018 to 2021 at a competitive auction, with a turnover rate of 9749%, and there is also a large area premium,The highest premium reached 105 yuan ton.
Two days later, that is, on January 31, China Grain Storage Henan Branch sold 5,720 tons of wheat from 2020 to 2021 at a competitive price, with a turnover rate of 100% and a premium againThe highest premium reached 195 yuan ton.
If it is said that the price increase of wheat is simply the first year ago, the price increase of flour enterprises will not make much splash, but the policy wheat auction continues to rise at a premium, and the market is boiling.
But this is time to pour some cold water again, as the saying goesThe opportunity is falling out, the risk is rising, no matter how much it rises, the illogical ** is prone to risk.
The risks of corn are well known, butThe risks of wheat are so well hidden that they are often overlooked.
What are the risks of wheat?
First, if you look at the market supply and demand, wheat not only has no foundation, but even has space.
Don't look at the price increase of flour enterprises now, the reason is the same as corn, at this time the sale of grain has decreased significantly, and the price increase is the demand for part of the replenishment, but there are still most of the price is also immeasurable, set off an atmosphere.
Because the weakness of the demand side is already visible to the naked eye.
Although the price of pigs has risen, the price gap between corn and wheat has widened significantlyEven if feed companies have some stocking needs, wheat is not ranked.
Flour sales are still mediocre, and this lack of peak season has been a frequent occurrence in recent years.
Although the by-product bran ** has rebounded slightly recently, the space is limited, far from the extent that it can not stabilize the losses of flour enterprises.
After the year, it is the off-season for the demand of the pig market, and the demand for wheat will be further reduced, and the situation of oversupply is difficult to reverse.
Second, whether it is the cancellation of the auction or the sale at a premium, there are specific reasons.
The sudden cancellation of auctions in China Grain Reserves has caused speculation in the marketIs it that the wheat has fallen too sharply, and the officials have begun to "shoot"?
I think it may mean that, but it's hard to say how long it will lastJust like although corn has also risen, and there is still grain in the field after the year, who dares to say that corn will only rise and not fall from now on?
On the other hand, wheat auctions continue to be at a premium, and we find that they are all in the Henan region, and the Henan region is more specialThe quality of wheat was damaged by bad rains and heavy snowstorms, all of which caused the relative "scarcity" of wheatLooking at it this way, it is not surprising that the premium is being held.
Third, there is a high probability that the rotation of wheat reserves after the holiday will continue.
Pre-holiday wheat** continued to decline, in addition to dismal demandAnother important reason is the crazy rotation of wheat in the ground.
Probably because they don't want to follow the old path of last year, this year's auctions of various reserve companies are very active, and most of the mentality is to promote quantity with price, and constantly reduce prices to promote transactions.
And it is estimated that this mentality will continue after the yearThat is to say,After the year, the rotation pressure of wheat reserves is still not small, and the supply pressure of wheat market is still very large.
Fourth, the time between the new wheat market and the new wheat market after the year has been significantly shortened.
Now everyone's attention is still in the year before, especially after the recent wheat and corn, everyone's attention has been attracted by the year before, causing many people to ignore the year.
Some people may say that everyone has also thought of it after the year, for example, after the new year, corn will face the market on the ground, and many grain collectors are waiting to take advantage of this time to buy it.
ButWheat is another "game".
Due to the late Spring Festival this year, this means that after the New Year, it will be the end of February after the fifteenth day. The earliest harvest of Hubei wheat began to be marketed in mid to early MayThere are just over two months left before the new wheat comes to market.
If you remove the time when the market wait-and-see sentiment adjusts before the listing,The time for the actual purchase and sale of wheat will be shorter.
Therefore, although the wheat is ** in front of it, the risk after the year is very certain. At this time, the market has been confused by the suspension of auctions and premiums, and the reluctance to sell is easy to rise again, butSweet dreams are fragile, and as expectations rise, the risk of wheat after the year is growing.
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