Written by Hua Wei.
At this year's CES exhibition, pure electric vehicles are no longer as hot as in previous years, and their presence has dropped significantly, and only a few car companies such as Mercedes-Benz, Honda, Hyundai-Kia, and Vinfast have brought new models to the show.
At the same time, a number of international auto giants have stepped on the brakes of electrification transformation. Currently, General Motors, Ford, Volkswagen, and Audi, among others, have all announced the postponement of electrification plans worldwide.
In fact, these phenomena are the result of a butterfly effect triggered by the lower-than-expected growth in global BEV sales. In terms of the Chinese market, which has developed rapidly in recent years, the year-on-year growth rate of plug-in hybrid models and extended-range models will increase in 2023, while that of pure electric vehicles will decrease.
According to the statistics of the China Association of China, the year-on-year growth of pure electric models in China in 2021 will be 15869%, which slipped to 68 in 202245%, which has fallen further to 24 in 20236%。
It is expected that in 2024, the market growth rate of pure electric vehicles will continue to slow down, and may even stagnate. Will the next ramp for pure electric vehicles continue to go down or go up again?
Uphill or downhill?
In 2023, the ** war will be fought in the auto market. Although new energy vehicle companies took the lead, under the fierce market competition, fuel vehicles have also begun to get involved in the battle of "price for volume".
In terms of preferential strength and scope, fuel vehicles are even significantly stronger than new energy vehicles. In December last year, BMW, Audi and Mercedes-Benz collectively reduced the price of a number of fuel models, with a discount range of more than 100,000 yuan.
At present, the price reduction list of the third-party car purchase platform understands the car emperor, which shows that the top 10 fuel vehicles with the highest decline have a maximum drop of more than 26%, and the top 10 pure electric vehicles with the highest decline have a maximum drop of more than 16%.
Therefore, entering 2024, fuel vehicle brands may continue to reduce prices to survive. However, in this case, the myth of the value preservation of fuel vehicles is also facing destruction, and it may not hit the pure electric vehicle market for a long time.
In addition to the competitive pressure, range anxiety is a greater pain point for pure electric vehicles compared with fuel vehicles, and it is also the reason for the decline in sales growth of pure electric models and the continuous growth of hybrid models in recent years.
However, with the development of battery technology in recent years, the range control of pure electric vehicles has been loosened.
Judging from the following key technologies that restrict the mileage, performance and cost of pure electric vehicles, it is expected that after 3 years, the pain points of pure electric vehicles will be balanced and resolved, ushering in an upward ramp of sales growth.
Uplink Condition 1:
Ultra-fast charging systems have become widely available
At present, according to the calculation of 1 public pile = 3 private piles, the ratio of pure electric vehicles in China's incremental market in 2023 has been 1:1, which is definitely several times ahead of the rest of the world. According to the analysis of Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the passenger association.
From January to November 2023, the number of domestic public charging piles increased by 890,000, a year-on-year growth rate of 50%; The number of private piles with vehicles increased by 2.42 million compared with the end of 2022, an increase of 71% year-on-year.
While the new energy charging infrastructure is becoming more and more perfect, the fast charging technology is also rapidly improving, and the problem of range anxiety is being solved.
At present, CATL is promoting the Shenxing 4C super-rechargeable battery and liquid-cooled supercharging pile, which can achieve a fast charging capacity of 10 minutes and a range of 400 kilometers. The 800V ultra-fast charging system is blooming everywhere, which can charge 30%-80% in 5-10 minutes.
At present, the models equipped with 800V architecture on the market include Zhijie S7, Zeekrypton 007, Xpeng G9, G6, etc., ** have dropped to the level of 200,000 yuan. This year, the 800V ultra-fast charging system may be developed into the standard equipment of mid-to-high-end electric vehicles.
In the next three years, with the growth of fast-charging battery and silicon carbide technology production capacity, the cost threshold of fast-charging technology is expected to be lowered to a lower level, and the 800V ultra-fast charging system will also penetrate into more price range models.
Uplink Condition 2:
Multiple breakthroughs in battery technology
In recent years, new technologies have emerged in the field of power batteries, including sodium-ion, semi-solid and all-solid-state lithium batteries.
Starting this year, CATL will fully commercialize sodium-ion and semi-solid-state batteries, and SAIC will mass-produce semi-solid-state batteries in different models of the company.
GAC Group, BYD, etc. are aiming at the time period from 2025 to 2026, BYD will test the installation of all-solid-state lithium batteries in 2025, and release a new pure electric platform and new pure electric models equipped with all-solid-state lithium batteries in 2026, and GAC Group will realize the installation of all-solid-state batteries in 2026.
In addition, last year, a number of battery manufacturers released a new generation of innovative power battery products, which greatly broke through the limit of endurance.
According to the public introduction, Sunwoda flash rechargeable battery supports electric vehicles with a range of 1,000 kilometers, Ruipu Lanjun's top nickel ternary battery has a range of more than 1,000 kilometers, and the high-nickel ternary power battery is expected to exceed 1,200 kilometers.
In the next three years, with the mass production and commercial use of a series of high-endurance power batteries, the performance advantages of pure electric vehicles will be further highlighted.
Uplink Condition Three:
The cost of the key ** chain has decreased
In addition to battery production giants such as CATL and BYD, which are working hard to reduce battery costs, many OEMs have also accelerated the pace of battery self-development.
At present, more than 15 car companies have announced plans to develop their own batteries, including GAC Aion, NIO, ZEEKR, Changan, Great Wall, Nezha, VOY, Wuling, SAIC, BMW, Volkswagen, Ford, Toyota, Honda and other car companies, many of which are still supporting customers of CATL.
Not long ago, three other car companies reported the latest progress.
In December last year, ZEEKR released its self-developed 800V lithium iron phosphate ultra-fast charging golden brick battery, GAC Aion's Inpai Battery Intelligent Ecological Factory was completed, and Li Bin, founder and CEO of NIO, measured the mileage of the self-developed 150kWh ultra-long battery pack live.
According to Tesla, its self-developed 4680 battery can save about 86% of production costs and reduce the cost per kWh by 69%. In the next three years, as more and more new energy brands adopt self-developed battery results, the cost competitiveness of pure electric vehicles will be further strengthened.
In addition, the abundance of lithium carbonate and the continuous decline will also give more favorable space for pure electric vehicles from the battery cost side.
In January this year, Cao Li, vice president of Leapmotor, publicly stated that their lithium iron phosphate battery procurement** had been reduced to 04 Wh per watt hour, which will be less than 0 in the middle of the year$4.
Uplink Condition Four:
Pure electric brand energy delivery
Among China's independent car brands, new forces such as NIO, Xpeng, and Zeekr only have pure electric models, but at this stage, the cumulative sales are at the top of the new energy vehicle list, and even the technological influence has been transmitted to the international market.
Among them, NIO, which was positioned in the high-end market at the beginning of its establishment, has experienced many losses and layoffs, but its sales performance is still stronger than that of many brands, and it has achieved more than double-digit growth last year, and has established a high-quality brand impression, and has also authorized the battery swap network to many car companies such as Changan and Geely.
Xpeng Motors, which has developed rapidly in technologies such as 800V high-voltage platform, intelligent cockpit and intelligent driving, is establishing technical cooperation with Volkswagen to help it fill its technical shortcomings in intelligence and electrification, and develop two B-class pure electric vehicles of the Volkswagen brand.
In the next three years, the technology maturity and product scale of the pure electric vehicle market will accelerate under the continuous product upgrade and technical authorization of the leading pure electric vehicle brand.
In addition, with the expansion of the market, the more and more perfect second-hand car trading and battery ** service mechanism of pure electric vehicles will gradually improve their value retention rate, so as to gain more consumer support.
Last year, the China Automobile Dealers Association established a group standard "Technical Specifications for the Evaluation of Power Batteries of New Energy Vehicles", establishing a unified testing standard for power batteries of new energy vehicles in the industry, providing an authoritative guarantee for second-hand pure electric vehicles and power batteries.