China** will fall for two consecutive years in 2022 and 2023, and it will fall again at the beginning of 2024. Many investors are in a state of panic and despair, and some even shout that society is in chaos and the country is going to die. This is because many people have no expectations for slow economic growth, let alone seriously think about the term recession.
In the past 30 years of rapid growth, China's average annual economic growth has been 10%. Industrialization, joint-stock reform, real estate, and the Internet have paid dividends one after another, and many people have eaten and become rich first. In the past 30 years, China has grown from one of the poorest countries in the world to the second largest in the world in terms of GDP.
All these achievements, of course, benefit from the inclusive thinking, the introduction of foreign capital and technology after the reform and opening up; It also benefits from the courage, wisdom and hard work of the Chinese people; It is also thanks to those adventurers and entrepreneurs who have the courage to explore freely and make trial and error.
However, many people also have a misconception that sustained and rapid economic development is the norm. As everyone knows, it is the norm for the economy to grow slowly, and sometimes encounter recessions and crises. China's industrial revolution, with zero war and 30 consecutive high-speed growth, can be regarded as a miracle in human history. But everything must follow objective laws, and if you achieve miracles, there must be a price.
Robert Shiller, a Nobel laureate economist and professor at Yale University, said in response to a question from a Chinese scholar after winning the prize in 2013: China's economy has not experienced recessions, depressions, or crises, and lacks the experience and ability to deal with challenges. The United States has had a decade when the S&P 500 index was ten times that has not risen for 10 years, and there have been great depressions and economic crises; Only by innovating the mechanism in the midst of a recession can we move forward healthily.
China's development model of rapid progress and quick success and quick profit has inevitably accumulated a lot of problems. If the development is too fast, and various problems are not cleared up in a timely manner, they will eventually accumulate into major problems, and when the growth is unsustainable, all kinds of problems will be exposed. For example, the problem of excessive debt, excessive leverage, wealth distribution, economic system, policy system, and people's risk awareness problems.
There has never been an economy in the world that has not stopped to correct mistakes, improve its mechanisms, and continue to grow. Ups and downs, error correction and restructuring, and steady progress are the long-term models. Hiding small mistakes, trying to control everything, suppressing volatility and randomness can end up accumulating big problems and a systemic collapse.
Personally, I think that it has been advancing by leaps and bounds for 30 years, and it is not normal to keep rising, and it is time for the situation to fall. Borrowing money to increase leverage for development, relying on real estate to make quick money, this road is time to change lanes and embark on a healthy development model. It is also time to reform some social mechanisms that run counter to economic development and fairness and justice.
As soon as the economic situation falls, there will be a source of pressure in society, and the system may be restructured and evolved. The pressure is forced to reform and innovate the mechanism, and everyone stops the pace of rapid progress, upgrades the rules, and has the opportunity to bring fair and just rules of the game. This may be a good thing, but the process may be painful for many people, and individuals try to downgrade their consumption to tide over the difficulties.
Finally, thanks to the courage, wisdom, diligence and indomitable spirit of the Chinese people! Thanks to those adventurers and entrepreneurs who have the courage to take responsibility, have the courage to explore freely, and have repeated trial and error. I believe that now is only the first period of China's great bull market, and after everyone gets through the difficulties, the next wave of healthy economic growth will be better.
The great development of history, although accompanied by many random events. But I choose to believe in China's national fortunes!! Choose to believe in the tenacious Chinese people!! We will have a deeper and more thorough freedom of information, freedom, a spirit of exploration, and the ability to collaborate globally.
Ordinary people need to unite and cooperate and strive for common happiness. Don't be fooled by opposing emotions such as gender, wealth and poverty, and ethnicity. People should not hate and fight against each other. We should work together for a better future.