If we can ** the share price of a listed company, then the investment may be very simple. The question is:
Can stock prices really be **?
The answer is like the famous British political comedy "Yes, Chancellor! Humphrey, the permanent secretary, said, "Yes, and at the same time, you can't." This seemingly hilarious answer is actually not wrong.
Let me explain it in detail.
Let's talk about why the stock price can't be **. Stock price movements are future events, and the future is incomparable. There is a paradox here, if the future can be changed, then the future can be changed by changing the present. Then, the future of the original ** becomes a fake future. The end result is that the future is not possible. In addition, there are many factors that affect the future, and the butterfly effect makes a huge difference in results due to even small changes. The complexity is so high that even the fastest computer can't calculate accurate results.
For example, the stock price is theoretically the result of a transaction between a buyer and a seller. At present, the total number of accounts in the A** market is about 200 million, and the active accounts are about 40 million. If you want to ** the stock price, you need the buying and selling behavior of the investors corresponding to the 40 million or even 200 million accounts. And people's behavior is irrational, if the stock price of Yili shares plummets, it may be that an investor is going to get married, sell ** ready to pay the bride price. How is this**?
If it's just the behavior of buyers and sellers, it can also be monitored. However, modern finance has become very developed, financial derivatives are emerging in an endless stream, and the financial system has become very fragile. Even in developed capital markets such as the United States, derivative financial instruments such as CDOs ultimately contributed to the global financial crisis in 2008. A **, not just long and short. There are also countless derivative financial instruments such as pledges, guarantees, hedging, VAM, arbitrage, swaps, etc., which will affect the stock price. It can be said that compared with the ** stock price, it is a simple matter to go to the blue sky.
Let's talk about why the stock price can be **.
Theoretically, whether it is the behavior of the buyer or seller or the trading behavior of derivatives, the exchange can monitor and record it in real time. SSE and SZSE may not know why an investor is buying and selling**, but they know when and at what price. To a certain extent, it is possible to guess the direction of the stock price. The exchange adopts matching transactions, and the background can see clearly how many buy orders and how many sell orders there are. Using a computer system, a ** price range can be roughly calculated.
Specific to a certain **, investors can roughly have a long-term trend judgment based on trading information such as chip structure. If the proportion of institutions holding ** is large, there is a high probability that it will be ** in the future; On the contrary, if the number of holders is large, there is a high probability that they will be held in the future. The logic behind it is that institutional holders pay more attention to fundamentals, and the fundamentals of the companies they hold are relatively excellent, and the future is more likely. This law can also be corroborated by statistics and historical backtesting.
If there are more public offerings among the institutional investors, the probability of the future is higher. Because most of the public offerings have perfect management systems, managers are more inclined to value investment and fundamental investment, and the companies they choose are not bad. On the contrary, if most of this **private placement** holds, then there is a high probability that it will be ** in the future, and it is likely to go "A".
There is also a logic implied in this, that is, the future stock price of companies with good fundamentals will be **. This law has been carried forward by Warren Buffett in the United States and used by the "Chinese Buffetts" to fool shareholders in China. If we think deeply, we know that the stock prices of companies with good fundamentals are not necessarily **. It is possible that the capital market is not waiting to be seen, and the valuation not only does not increase, but also continues to decline, resulting in good performance and falling stock prices. At this time, if the company adopts measures such as increasing dividends, increasing repurchases, and firm cancellations, the stock price will definitely turn from falling to rising, and it will skyrocket. For example, Meta recently announced that it would repurchase 50 billion, and the stock price soared by 20%, which is really enviable for such a large market capitalization company to have such an increase. The scale of the repurchase of 50 billion US dollars is comparable to the repurchase of all A-share companies in the past. Therefore, for A-share listed companies, only dividends, or buyback and cancellation of enterprises, the stock price can be ** when the fundamentals are good. Such a company, in the domestic first-class ticket market, may account for no more than 01%。
In addition, to put it alone, technical analysis (scribing) is an afterthought and ineffective, and there is no logical and statistical empirical data to verify the theory of technical analysis. Psychology can be explained, but psychology itself is metaphysics and cannot be used as a theoretical basis. Technical analysis itself is better than guessing. Blind guessing is all based on probability, and technical analysis is easy to be used because of its own applicability.
So, in the end, it comes back to that nonsense: find companies with good fundamentals and trades, and resign yourself to fate.
PS: Recently, I have been researching pharmaceutical companies, and it is indeed difficult to analyze, but the future of medicine is definitely a potential direction, and it is impossible to do without research. When the results of the study are available, they will be shared.