The Philippine military's actions show that they are strategically testing China's bottom line in the South China Sea and its control over islands and reefs. They intend to test whether China will relax its defense of islands and reefs in the South China Sea due to global strategic considerations by continuing to encroach on Second Thomas Shoal. In addition, the Philippines is also trying to expand its influence over important shipping lanes in the South China Sea to increase its geopolitical advantage in the region. They also hope to try to legitimize illegal actions and improve their standing in ASEAN through a long period of encroachment. The Philippines uses the South China Sea issue as a means to enhance its own value and deflect domestic tensions.
China's delay in taking direct action against the Philippines' encroachment on Second Thomas Shoal is due to the following considerations. First of all, it is relatively easy for China to drive out the people on board and dismantle the broken ship. However, the aim of restraint is to avoid an escalation in the South China Sea that could lead to a loss of control and adverse effects on China's economy and foreign investment. The South China Sea is not only about energy and energy, but also about the interests of East Asian and Southeast Asian countries, and may also have an impact on the situation in the Taiwan Strait. Second, China's diplomatic fundamentals are a stable relationship with ASEAN, which could be undermined by conflict. Third, by responding to the Philippines' encroachment, China can demonstrate to the world its sincerity, goodwill, capability, firm will, and legal basis for resolving complex maritime disputes. This delay-and-wait strategy is beneficial to China, which can reduce the recurrence of similar problems and demonstrate its resilience and resolve in the South China Sea by making deep structural adjustments before dismantling the shipwreck.
The motivation for the Philippines is manifold. First, they are interested in the abundance of resources in the South China Sea, especially the 6 billion barrels of proven oil reserves near Ren'ai Jiao. The Philippines hopes to gain access to these resources and increase its economic power by encroaching on islands and reefs. Second, the Philippines is trying to improve its position in ASEAN and cover up its domestic political contradictions. The Philippines' declining status has increased its dependence on the United States, and it hopes to use the South China Sea issue to enhance its own value and share interests with the United States. However, there are risks associated with this Philippine policy, as U.S. support for the Philippines is largely motivated by self-interest rather than genuine concern for the Philippines. The Philippines is also trying to see if it can legitimize illegal occupation by watching China's reaction, and trying to fight for more benefits under international law.
China's strategy of exercising restraint and delaying change on the issue of Second Thomas Shoal is not out of weakness, but a wise choice made on the basis of comprehensive consideration of various factors. By exercising restraint, China can avoid further escalation in the South China Sea and demonstrate to the world its ability and willingness to resolve maritime disputes. In addition, China's stable diplomatic relations and economic stability are also factors for China to exercise restraint. Despite frequent provocations by the Philippines in the South China Sea, China is gradually realizing its rights and interests in the South China Sea by mastering the pace and demonstrating resilience and determination to resolve disputes. This approach is beneficial to China, can reduce the occurrence of conflicts, and contribute to regional peace and stability. At the same time, China also needs to strengthen communication and coordination with other countries to jointly maintain peace and stability in the South China Sea. In the era of globalization, where countries are increasingly interdependent, cooperation in the settlement of disputes is the most effective and lasting way.