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Foreword: Three people were killed and 47 injured in a drone strike on the Tower 22 military base in eastern Jordan. The attack has put enormous pressure on the U.S. and the military, who urgently need to give a plausible explanation and demonstrate the fruits of retaliatory military action at home. While the agreement between the White House and the military is that "no war with Iran is sought," Secretary of State Antony Blinken said something different, saying that "we will respond, and that response will likely be multi-layered, phased, and sustained over time." Analysts note that the U.S. military's retaliatory actions could be aimed at targets outside of Iran. However, a military strike on Iran itself will further destabilize the situation in the Middle East, and it is very likely that it will fall into a vortex of war from which it cannot extricate itself. The United States faces the dangerous consequences of going to war and could lose its dominant position in the Middle East. Therefore, taking military strikes against targets in Syria and Iraq and declaring the mission completed is a way to gain recognition in the White House and at home, and to win face on the international stage. The real outcome of the war is not important to the public, the key is to convey a message of "revenge". According to reports from the British newspaper Sky News and Politico, Biden may begin military operations in the Middle East in the coming hours. The United States is preparing multiple waves of strikes against Iranian forces in Syria and Iraq in response. Experts have analyzed the signs of the transfer of six KC-135 tanker aircraft from the US Air Force that the US Air Force will undertake military strikes against Iranian forces. This move shows that the US Air Force is preparing for a large-scale air raid mission. Theoretically, "Iranian armed targets" in Syria and Iran will become the focus of the US Air Force's attention. However, at a critical moment, the Iranian armed forces suddenly announced the suspension of strikes on relevant US bases in the Middle East, which attracted widespread attention.
1. The necessity of military action: In the face of the drone attack on the "Tower 22" military base in eastern Jordan, the United States** and the military urgently need to take retaliatory actions to show their resolve and protect national interests.
2. Multi-layered response: Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that the U.S. will take a multi-layered, phased response and sustained pressure to make Iran and its allies aware of the seriousness of the U.S. response to the attack.
3. Military operations against non-Iranian targets: Analysts believe that the U.S. military's retaliatory actions may be aimed at targets outside of Iran to avoid triggering a larger war in the Middle East.
Expanding: In response to a drone attack on the Tower 22 military base in eastern Jordan, the United States** and the military must respond to prevent any attacks from going unnoticed or misunderstood. Secretary of State Antony Blinken's statement shows that the United States will respond in a multi-layered and phased manner, reflecting their perception of the seriousness of the attack. This multi-layered, phased response could make Iran and its allies understand that the United States would not let the attack go so easily. In addition, U.S. retaliatory actions are likely to target targets outside of Iran to avoid triggering a broader conflict. Behind this strategic decision is a consideration for Middle East and global stability, and by selecting non-Iranian targets for strikes, it can minimize the expansion of the conflict, while sending a strong warning signal to Iran and its allies.
1. Fueling the war: A military strike on Iran could exacerbate the current war situation in the Middle East and further push the region into chaos and instability.
2. Unacceptable consequences: There is great uncertainty for the United States to start a war, and the consequences of war are difficult to achieve, which may lead to unbearable costs.
3. Threatening U.S. dominance: A war between the United States and Iran could threaten U.S. dominance in the Middle East, which would be an unacceptable outcome for the United States.
Expanding: A military strike on Iran will not only exacerbate the war in the Middle East, but may also lead to more conflicts and contradictions, bringing more pain and distress to the local people. As an important force in the Middle East, Iran plays an important role in regional security and stability. Once a large-scale military conflict breaks out, it will bring unacceptable consequences to neighboring countries and the international community, and may further expand the scope and impact of the war. For the United States, starting a war could lead to huge costs, not only military sacrifices, but also economic and political losses. Moreover, a war between the United States and Iran may shake the dominant position of the United States in the Middle East and greatly challenge its voice and influence in regional affairs. Therefore, it is wise to avoid a direct attack on Iran itself, which is in line with the needs of the national interest and long-term development strategy of the United States.
1. Ways to get a decent narrative: A military strike on a target in Syria and Iraq that is alleged to be the hiding place of the perpetrators can not only provide a considerable rhetoric for the White House and the U.S. side, but also win credibility at home and abroad.
2. Concentrate on indiscriminate bombing and declare revenge: After several successive indiscriminate bombing operations, announcing the completion of the mission and publicizing revenge can meet the expectations of retaliation at home and abroad, and at the same time effectively control the scope and intensity of the conflict.
3. International and domestic win-win: Choosing to carry out military strikes against Iranian armed targets can demonstrate the determination and strength of the United States on the international stage and win back face. Domestically, this could also give the White House and the military the symbolic victory they need.
Expansion: In order for the White House and the U.S. to have a reasonable explanation and win back face, while meeting international and domestic expectations, it is a feasible option to choose a military strike against targets in Syria and Iraq that are alleged to be the hiding places of the perpetrators. By concentrating on the target through several successive indiscriminate bombing operations, and then declaring revenge, you can meet the expectations of retaliation, and at the same time control the scale and intensity of the battle to avoid further escalation of the war. Such a military action can not only obtain considerable rhetoric, but also bring a symbolic victory to the White House and the United States. In the international arena, show the determination and strength of the United States and win back face;Domestically, it could also meet public expectations for retaliation while sending a "respond" message to the U.S. and military.
1. Diplomatic rhetoric: Iran's armed announcement to suspend strikes on US bases is interpreted as diplomatic rhetoric, which can ease tensions and save Iraq from embarrassment.
2. Low-cost expulsion of U.S. troops: Analysts believe that Sardar Qarney, commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Quds, and Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani reached an agreement to suspend strikes on U.S. military bases and expel U.S. troops from Iraq at low cost.
3. Compromise but no confession: The announcement of Iran's armed forces may seem like a compromise on the surface, but in fact it does not mean that it is a confession, and for Iran, the moratorium is a strategic and diplomatic calculation to reduce pressure and strive for a more favorable negotiating position.
Expanding: The Iranian armed forces suddenly announced the suspension of strikes against US ** bases, and the outside world has different interpretations of this statement. On the one hand, the declaration that Iran is armed can be seen as a diplomatic rhetoric to try to de-escalate tensions, avoid further escalation of the conflict, and save Iraq** from embarrassment. On the other hand, analysts believe that the commander of the "Quds Al-Quds" unit of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, Sardar Qahni, and Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani may have reached an agreement to suspend strikes on US military bases. The aim was to remove U.S. troops from Iraq at a low cost and secure a more favorable negotiating position for Iran. Therefore, although the Iranian armed forces announced a moratorium, it did not mean that they were cowardly, but a decision made after weighing various interests and strategies.
Summary: According to reports, Biden is preparing to launch a military operation in the Middle East in response to a drone attack on a Jordanian military base. In order to avoid a direct strike on Iranian soil, strikes against Iranian-affiliated armed targets in Syria and Iraq may be chosen, and the mission will be declared complete. Such military operations can meet international and domestic expectations while controlling the scope and intensity of the conflict. The announcement of a moratorium on strikes by Iranian forces has been interpreted as diplomatic rhetoric and a strategic compromise aimed at de-escalating tensions and gaining a more favorable negotiating position. In any case, the current situation in the Middle East remains complex and uncertain, and it is necessary to continue to monitor its developments.
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