【Corn Market】
Corn market] domestic corn starch ** basically stable] approaching the Spring Festival holiday, corn starch market ** fluctuations are small. On February 6, the ex-factory price of corn starch in Northeast China was 2900 3070 yuan, the ex-factory price in Hebei and Shandong was 3180 3200 yuan, and the sales in Shanghai and Guangdong were 3250 3300 yuan, which were flat week-on-week. [Downstream demand and substitution advantages continue to support corn starch**] This week, domestic starch** remained firm. On the one hand, processing enterprises reported that the downstream demand for starch, sugar, papermaking and other demand performed well, and signed orders in advance until the end of February; On the other hand, corn starch has obvious advantages over tapioca starch**, and the amount of substitution increases. According to deep processing enterprises, it is expected that the number of corn starch enterprises will decrease year-on-year during the Spring Festival holiday, and corn starch will be sufficient.
This week, starch by-products were basically stable, with the ex-factory price of protein powder at 4100 4500 yuan, the ex-factory price of corn fiber at 880 1100 yuan, and the ex-factory price of corn germ meal at 1300 1700 yuan, which was flat week-on-week. On February 6, the theoretical profit of processing 1 ton of corn in Changchun, Jilin Province was 102 yuan (excluding depreciation, the same below), a decrease of 9 yuan from last week; The theoretical profit in Binzhou, Shandong Province was 27 yuan, the same as last week.
U.S. Corn *** On February 6, the Chicago ** Exchange (CBOT) corn *** of which the March futures closed 4 cents lower at 43875¢ bushel; May futures closed 275 cents at 4505 cents bushels; December futures closed 05 cents at 47725 cents bushel. This is because the weather forecast indicates that there may be rain in Argentina's agricultural regions, easing the pressure caused by the recent hot and dry weather.
Conab: As of Feb. 3, the first corn harvest is progressing at 138%] Brazil's National Commodities** company (CONAB) said that as of Feb. 3, the 2023 24 first corn season has been harvested at 13 percent so far8% from 10 a week ago4 percent, compared to 9 in the same period last year1%；Among them, Rio Grande do Sul harvested 40%, compared to 35% in the same period last year; 19% in Paraná and 1% last year. Conab expects a first-season corn yield of 2,43850,000 tons, lower than the 25.31 million tons in the previous month, down 109%。
【Rice Market】
As of February 2, the corn inventory in the four northern ports was 13080,000 tons, an increase of 7 week-on-week50,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6650,000 tons, 300,000 tons under the four northern ports that week, a decrease of 17 week-on-week50,000 tons. As of February 7, the corn inventory in Guangdong port was 7730,000 tons, a decrease of 3 week-on-week30,000 tons, of which 1660,000 tons, foreign trade corn inventory 6070,000 tons.
The domestic and foreign price difference of corn is 450 yuan ton, and the week-on-week increase is 80 yuan ton] monitoring shows that on February 7, the U.S. March shipping No. 2 yellow corn to Guangdong port CNF **248 US dollars, the cost of duty-paid to the port is 2040 yuan, the same period Guangdong port second-class corn **2470 yuan ton, the theoretical arrival price of imported corn is 430 yuan lower than that of domestic corn, and the week-on-week expansion of 80 yuan ton.
U.S. corn *** On February 7, CBOT corn ** March futures closed down 45 cents at 43425 cents bushel. May futures closed 4 cents lower at 4465 cents bushels; July futures closed 35 cents at 47375¢ bushel; This is because the weather forecast indicates widespread rain in the hot and dry regions of Argentina in the coming days.
Céleres expects Brazilian corn exports in 2023 24 to fall by 11% year-on-year] Consultancy Céleres expects Brazilian corn exports in 2023 24 to fall to 49.8 million tons, down 11% year-on-year, but still the second-highest in history, with the expected decline mainly due to lower production. The corn acreage in 2023-24 will fall to its lowest level since 2017-18 due to lower corn planting profits. Brazil's corn production in 2023-24 is expected to be 119.5 billion tons.
Deral: 32% of second-season corn planted in Paraná state, fastest since 2019] The Ministry of Rural Economy (DERAL) of the Brazilian state of Paraná released a weekly report showing that as of February 5, the progress of the first corn harvest in 2023 24 was 36%, an increase of 17 percentage points in a week. In addition, farmers have planted 32 percent of their second corn crop, up from 22 percent a week earlier and continuing to maintain the fastest pace of planting for the same period since 2019.
【Wheat Market】
Yesterday's flour ** remained stable] On February 7, the ex-factory price of special flour in Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province was 3,340 yuan tons, 3,340 yuan tons in Beijing-Tianjin area, 3,320 yuan tons in Jinan, Shandong, 3,320 yuan tons in Taiyuan, Shanxi, 3,300 yuan tons in Zhengzhou, Henan, 3,300 yuan tons in Xuzhou, Jiangsu, and 3,290 yuan tons in Suzhou, Anhui, all of which were flat compared with the previous day. Approaching the Spring Festival, the purchase and sale of the flour market is light, and the first to maintain a stable operation.
On February 7, the ex-factory price of bran in Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province was 1,650 yuan ton, Jinan, Shandong Province was 1,680 yuan tons, Henan Zhengzhou was 1,710 yuan tons, Xuzhou, Jiangsu Province was 1,720 yuan tons, and Anhui Suzhou was 1,720 yuan tons, all of which were flat compared with the previous day. Approaching the Spring Festival, flour enterprises have been shut down for holidays, bran inventory is at a low level, market purchase and sales are light, and the first to maintain stable operation.
On February 7, the purchase price of "Gaoyou 2018" in Hebei was 3,180 yuan ton, the purchase price of "Zhengmai 366" in Henan was 3,250 yuan ton, and the purchase price of "Jinan 17" in Shandong was 3,040 yuan ton, all of which were flat week-on-week. Affected by the "bad rain" during the harvest period, the quantity of high-quality wheat in the market is small, and the wheat is relatively firm. Compared with previous years, the price difference between Youmai and Pumai this year is large, about 280,510 yuan, compared with about 60,120 yuan in the same period last year.
U.S. wheat rose and fell on February 7, U.S. wheat rose and fell on February 7, mainly because the U.S. Department of Agriculture will issue a monthly supply and demand report on Thursday. CBOT Soft Red Winter Wheat March delivery closed 7 cents higher at 602 cents bushel; The March price of KCBT hard red winter wheat closed 025 cents at 61825 cents bushel. MGE hard red spring wheat for March delivery closed 3 cents higher at 69625 cents bushel.
French Institute of Research Says 2024 Duren Wheat Production May Hit Another Twenty-Year Low] French Crop Research Institute Avalis said that French Duren Wheat production in 2024 may hit the lowest value in more than two decades, mainly due to the fact that Duren wheat is more difficult to grow than ordinary wheat, and French farmers have reduced the planting area of Duren wheat in recent years; Heavy rains in western France since autumn are likely to exacerbate the decline in plantings. The French Ministry of Agriculture estimated in December that only 20 percent of French durum wheat could be harvested in 202450,000 hectares, a year-on-year decrease of 105%。
[Oils and oilseeds market].
Malaysian palm oil inventories are expected to continue to fall at the end of January] The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) will release the January supply and demand report on February 13, and the average month-on-month decline in Malaysian palm oil inventories in January over the past five years is 302%, recent market institutions estimate that Malaysia's palm oil production in January fell by 8% to 13% month-on-month, and exports fell by 7% month-on-month by 12%. According to the monitoring of production and export volumes, combined with historical inventory trends, it is expected that Malaysia's palm oil inventories will decline by about 5% month-on-month at the end of January, from 2.29 million tons at the end of December to about 2.15 million tons. Pay attention to the weather conditions in the later palm oil producing areas.
Yesterday, domestic palm oil ** fell slightly] On February 7, the main 2405 contract of palm oil of DCE was 7109 yuan ton, which was 5 yuan ton or 0 yuan compared with the previous day1%, from the high point of **435 yuan on January 26 or 58%。24 degrees palm oil in domestic coastal areas**7200 7500 yuan, compared with the previous day**30 50 yuan, compared with the same period last week**20 50 yuan. Among them, Tianjin ** 7,430 yuan ton, Shandong Rizhao 7,480 yuan ton, Jiangsu Zhangjiagang 7,230 yuan ton, Guangdong Guangzhou 7,300 yuan ton.
It is expected that the domestic palm oil will continue to trend after the Spring Festival] Since January, domestic palm oil has risen first and then fallen, showing a wide range, and it is expected that palm oil will continue to range after the Spring Festival. Bullish factors: Southeast Asia's palm oil producing areas are in the season of reduced production, palm oil production fell in the first quarter, and palm oil inventories may continue to fall; Palm oil was supported by El Niño weather leading to less rainfall in Indonesia and concerns about reduced palm oil production in the second half of the year. Negative factors: domestic palm oil consumption is in the off-season, and soybean oil, rapeseed oil, sunflower oil and other oil inventories are at a high level, and the overall supply of domestic vegetable oil is abundant, suppressing palm oil**; After the second quarter, domestic imported soybeans will be concentrated in Hong Kong, and the supply of soybean oil will increase, which will enrich the domestic vegetable oil supply in the second quarter.
Palm oil inventories in domestic coastal areas have dropped significantly] Recently, palm oil imports have decreased to Hong Kong, and domestic palm oil inventories have continued to decline. According to monitoring, on February 2, palm oil inventories in coastal areas were 660,000 tons (including 620,000 tons of edible palm oil), down 80,000 tons week-on-week, 200,000 tons month-on-month, down 340,000 tons from the high point on November 10, and down 320,000 tons from the same period last year. Among them, the edible palm oil inventory is 70,000 tons in Tianjin, 30,000 tons in Shandong, 260,000 tons in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu, and 230,000 tons in Guangdong.
This week, the spot price spread of palm oil imports narrowed] Recently, domestic and foreign palm oil ** are both **, and the decline abroad is greater than that of domestic ones, and the palm oil import price spread has narrowed. Monitoring shows that on February 7, Malaysia's March shipping schedule of 24 degrees of palm oil CNF** 882 US dollars, equivalent to the duty-paid cost of Tianjin to Hong Kong 7650 yuan tons (tariff 9%, value-added tax 9%), 541 yuan tons higher than the contract price of palm oil 2405 of DCE, week-on-week is basically flat; It is 220 yuan tons higher than the spot palm oil in Tianjin, and 32 yuan tons smaller than the previous week.
According to monitoring, as of the week of February 2, China added about 10 new palm oil ships, including 6 ships from February to March and 4 ships from May to July. It is expected that the average monthly arrival of palm oil in February and March will be about 350,000 tons (excluding palm oil stearin), due to the recent increase in ship purchases, and palm oil consumption is in the off-season, it is expected that domestic palm oil will be destocked or slow down after the Spring Festival.
Yesterday, CBOT soybean futures fell to a more than three-year low] On February 7, the Chicago ** Exchange (CBOT) soybean futures price *** of which the benchmark contract closed 09%, down to the lowest point since December 15, 2020, as rains are expected in the main producing areas of Argentina and Brazil, and there is more pressure on South American soybeans** in the future. As of **, the soybean futures price **025～10.75 cents, with March futures closing 1050 cents at 1,189 cents bushel; May futures closed 1075 cents at 119750¢ bushel; November futures closed 675 cents at 117075¢ bushel;
Export Sales Report Preview: Net Soybean Sales Expected at 401.05 Million Mt] The USDA will release its weekly export sales report on Thursday, which the market expects to show net export sales of 401.05 million mt of U.S. soybeans for the week ending Feb. 1, 2024. For comparison, it was 160,000 tons last week.
Safras: Brazil's soybean exports could reach 10.26 million mt in February] According to the loading schedule at Brazilian ports, soybean exports could reach 10.26 million mt in February, according to the Safras&Mercado survey. If this forecast materializes, it will be higher than 236 in January 202480,000 tons, also higher than February 2023.
Yesterday's Malaysian palm oil futures *** On February 7, the Malaysian Derivatives Exchange (BMD) crude palm oil futures *** was mainly due to the market's expectation of a decline in Malaysian palm oil inventories at the end of January. As of **, crude palm oil futures ranged from RM5 to RM67 tonnes, with the benchmark 2404 contract RM24 or 088% to close at RM3,877 tonnes, or about 813$4 ton.
MPOA: Malaysia's palm oil output decreased by 11 m/m in January2%] Malaysian palm oil production fell by 11 month-on-month in January, according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA).18%。Among them, the output of Peninsular Malaysia decreased by 14 month-on-month31%, and East Malaysia decreased by 614%, Sabah decreased by 724%；Sarawak reduced by 284%。
The transition from El Niño to La Niña this year could lead to rainy Americas drought in Asia] After a strong El Niño, global weather will transition to La Niña in the second half of 2024, a pattern that typically brings more precipitation to Australia, Southeast Asia and India, and drier weather to cereal and oilseed producing regions in the Americas, meteorologists and agricultural analysts said.