Reading guide:
In addition to the economic expectation factors, the trend of the market is more important in the year, which leads to the overdraft of the valuation of many high-quality white horse stocks, and then due to the change of market trends, resulting in the continuous negative feedback effect of "redemption - * selling", many high-quality white horse stocks continue to have nothing to do with fundamentals until now, just as the current year has nothing to do with fundamentals in the later period. Now, it's time to go "panning for gold". Text|Brother Kunpeng.
In the past six months, the market is really miserable, looking at the Shanghai Composite Index is still hovering around 3000 points, but the cumulative decline of the CSI 300 Index and the Shanghai 50 Index in the last three years is about to catch up with 2008, especially in the last half year, on the basis of falling so much before, and falling so much, and many people in 2008 were at 3000 points**, and the result fell a big piece later. In 2008, the Shanghai Composite Index fell from 6124 points all the way to 1664 points, and the "five golden flowers" that rose very crazy during the 2006-2007 bull market - real estate, nonferrous metals, coal, steel, and finance, there were many ** fell by 80% or even 90% in a year, and only a fraction of the 6124 high point remained.
Why is it so tragic?In addition to the factors of the global financial crisis in 2008, another important factor is that the previous stock price speculation was too fierce, and there were too many ** times in two years, 10 times, and 20 times, which was completely detached from the fundamentals and the bubble was very serious.
At present, the results of the CSI 300 and the SSE 50 are almost the same as those of the year, they are all crazy speculation before, and the bubble is extremely serious, and then they encountered economic difficulties, and there was a "Davis double kill" of valuation and earnings growth, and in the later stage, it became a continuous negative feedback "reflexive effect" of "** trend - sell - * trend - sell".
CSI 300 Index Monthly
In 2007, ** sold very crazy, Brother Kunpeng still clearly remembers that many people went to the business department early in the morning to line up to buy**, the streets and alleys are talking about **, for fear that if you can't buy it, you will suffer a loss, just like the scene of rushing to buy new shares and subscription warrants in the recent hot TV series "Flowers", but the volume of ** in 2007 was very small, almost insignificant compared with now.
2020 and 2021 are two years of great development, and they are also two years when many post-90s leeks are crazy to enter and buyYoung people regard ** as a social conversation, although they don't understand anything, and they don't even know what ** is for, but if you don't buy **, then you have lost the common topic with other people, that scene reminds Brother Kunpeng of the high point in 2007 when a large number of people with no sense of risk and no investment system rushed into the market to buy**, buy** exactly the same.
How crazy it was then, how tragic it is now. The people who robbed ** like crazy back then, and the people who continue to redeem ** now, are a group of people. Of course, there are many people who were fooled back then.
The market has fallen to the present, and it has nothing to do with the fundamentals, just as it has nothing to do with the fundamentals when it rose, the madness of the rise is due to the continuous accumulation of the money-making effect, which has led to a large number of people outside the market to see others make money and pour into the marketThe tragedy of the fall is related to the continuous loss effect of the market, which causes people in the market to continue to sell** and redeem** to leave the market.
**It is the Shura field of human nature. Flowers are in full bloom, flowers are gone, flowers are blooming again.
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