In recent years, the sharp fluctuation of global food** and the surge of hungry people have caused many troubles. And in the eyes of most people, the Russia-Ukraine conflict seems to be the main cause of the global "food crisis". However, in reality, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has not had a direct impact on global food**. So, how exactly did this so-called "food crisis" come about? In fact, this crisis is more related to foodFinanceandInternational** Giants' profiteering behavior. This article will discuss the issue from multiple perspectives and possible solutions to the food crisis.
The outbreak of the global food crisis is closely related to a number of factors. First of all, the soaring global food** and the frequent occurrence of extreme weather events in recent years have put global food** under severe pressure. This trend has had a catastrophic impact on the world's poorest and most vulnerable. Second, climate change has a global impactFood securityposes a long-term threat. However, it is misleading for many to attribute the Russia-Ukraine conflict directly to the immediate cause of current food insecurity. While the Russia-Ukraine conflict does have an impact on the food of the world's two major food producers, in particularWheatExports have caused some disruption, but the stability of global food** has not been significantly affected by this.
from grainSupply and demandThe global food shortage is exaggerated. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations andInternationalData from the Grains Council, July 2021 to June 2022, globalWheatProduction increased by 5 million tons, while the first volume increased by only 3 million tons. This means that inventories have increased compared to before the warWheat**Total excess utilization up to 27.5 billion tons. Between July 2022 and June 2023, global food** is expected to exceed demand, a trend that indicates the stability of global food**.
In addition, there is often too much emphasis on the absence of some regions (e.g., the Black Sea region) to the expense of production and growth in others. In fact, global food production is widely distributed, and food shortages in one region can be compensated for by increased production in other regions. Therefore, the stability of global food** should not be overstated.
So why are there such wild fluctuations in global food**? To answer this question, we need to start with foodFinanceFrom the perspective of **. The global cereals market is dominated by the four major cereals (abcdMonopolies, they hold at least 75% of the market share. It just so happened that in the early stages of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, these four major merchants all achieved a recordProfitand income. theseProfitGrowth is not commensurate with a serious imbalance between real demand and **. In addition, cerealsMarketplaceA series of events also proves a lot of problems. FinanceInvestmentsin ParisWheatMarketplaceThe increasing share of long positions indicates that more money is being invested in the food market, driving the growth of the market. SomeInvestmentsThey have even gained huge amounts through the fluctuations in food caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflictProfit。This kindFinanceManipulation appears to be omnipotent in the face of regulators in the United States and the European Union. This behavior has not been effectively curbed.
The disruption caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict on grain exports is mainly manifested in the fact that Russia and Ukraine account for more than a quarter of the world's totalWheatExport share. Thus, in the aftermath of the conflict, fears of a shortage of expectations have ledWheat**Target**. However, over time,Wheat**Start** and return to pre-war levels in December 2022. This trend is indeed linked to the successful conclusion of the Black Sea grain export agreement. The agreement lifted Russia's blockade of Ukrainian grain exports. However, Russia's withdrawal from the deal has rekindled concerns about global food**. This concern is actually misled by two factors.
First of all, since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine crisis, the worldWheat**Remains stable, with increased production and trading volumes. Second, food production and growth in the rest of the world are often overlooked. In fact, global food production is dispersed, which means that shortages in one region can be compensated for by increased production in other regions. Therefore, the current concerns about the stability of global food ** are unwarranted.
Finally, what we need is the distribution of benefits from grain exports. According to reports, most of Ukraine's grain exports do not go to the world's poorest countries, but to countries above the middle income, such as European countries, China and Turkey. Low-income countries receive only a small portion of their food exports. As a result, the world's poorest people often suffer from the food chaos that has resulted from the collapse of the agreement.
In order to solve the food crisis, multi-stakeholder cooperation is needed, including improving the transparency and accessibility of the global food chain, and strengthening regulatory mechanisms to prevent itFinancemanipulation, as well as ensuring that food reaches the people who need it most. Here are the possible solutions:
1.Establish a global food reserve system: Establish a centrally managed global food reserve system to provide food aid in emergencies and mitigate the impact of fluctuations on the poor.
2.Strengthen the regulatory mechanism: StrengthenFinanceRegulation of speculative behavior, restrictionsFinanceInstitutional participation in the food market and punishment for the manipulation of food **.
3.Improving the efficiency of food production:InvestmentsonAgricultureTechnology and sustainabilityAgriculturepractice to improveAgricultural productsyield and quality, and reduce the negative impact on the environment.
4.Scaling up food aid to the poorest:InternationalSocieties should step up food aid to the poorest, ensure equitable food distribution, and tackle global hunger.
In short, the global food crisis is not directly caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but by foodFinanceChemicalInternational** The profiteering behavior of the giants is related to the distribution of profits from grain exports. The need to address the food crisisInternationalSocieties work together to improve the transparency and accessibility of the food chain, strengthen regulatory mechanisms, improve food production efficiency, and scale up assistance to the poorest. Only in this way can we achieve globalFood securityand poverty alleviation.