Vision Pro: Pre-sale, 100,000 units, Apple's lifesaver?
At 8 a.m. EST on January 19, Apple launched a product called Vision Pro, which has a total of 256 GB, 512 GB, and 1 TB, ** for $3,499 (25,000 yuan), $3,699 ($2,699), and $3,899 ($2,899).
In fact, within five minutes of its release, Vision was already overcrowded, and a large number of orders were simply too late to process, and it was sold out in less than half an hour after it was released. Due to a large number of orders, the shipment cycle of Vision Pro has been greatly delayed, according to Apple's official **, the delivery date of this product has been extended to March, and some products are scheduled to be completed in April.
In Apple's view, Vision Pro is its secondary growth curve, and Apple CEO Tim Cook said that it will open a new era of space computers. After 8 years from the beginning of the project to the official launch, Vision Pro is known as Apple's fifth display product after iPhone, iPad, iMac and iWatch.
Because the number of bookings for the visual effects professional version is too large, it has given rise to the agency auction industry. To put it bluntly, it is the scalper who is helping the customer buy something, and when the thing is purchased, the customer has to give money. According to some buyers, Vision Pro is now selling for around $11,000 in the U.S. and up to $80,000-100,000 in China.
In Jingdong,**Xianyu and other e-commerce**,A large number of ** people have also begun to emerge,And the price of Vision Pro is also continuous**,Up to 90,000。 In the "rush to buy", the digital product Vision Pro seems to have become a "financial management weapon", taking advantage of this opportunity to grab the goods, and then change hands is more than five times the profit, which is simply jaw-dropping.
While the Vision Pro series will be able to turn the tide and iPhone sales are not as good as expected, it is debatable whether it will be able to turn the tide and usher in a new era of consumer electronics.
First, the ** price soared to 100,000 yuan.
Vision Pro uses the M2 chip, based on the Vision operating system, based on a 3D user interface and input method, and is operated by eyes, fingers and voice. In addition, it is equipped with an eye-tracking system, equipped with Eyesight, which allows users to see that the phone's display is transparent from the outside when they are up close**, which means that they can interact with the real world while wearing a helmet.
Because Vision Pro is now only available in the United States, most Chinese consumers buy it from relatives and friends in the United States, that is, the top three e-commerce companies.
Especially on third-party platforms, some merchants will let consumers pay in full; Some pay a deposit first and then pay after getting the goods; There are also some merchants who say they will ship in mid-February and then give them a corresponding discount according to the market price. But in any case, the price of this mobile phone is tens of thousands higher. Combined with various purchase channels, the arrival price of Ruijie Pro generally fluctuates between 25,000-75,000, and the most expensive is close to 100,000.
Source: wwwnetworld.com/
Even on eBay, someone got a 512 GB coupon and sold it for $6,000, which is 62% higher than the price on the official website.
In addition, Jingdong has also opened a reservation for Vision Pro on the official third-party platform, which says that it will be opened at 23 o'clock on February 2 after booking, from the perspective of its logistics chain, it is shipped from the United States to JD's bonded warehouse, and then sent to the customer's city, JD is responsible for delivery and follow-up after-sales service.
Indeed, it is expected that Ruijie will become a "financial weapon". Tianfeng** analyst Ming-Chi Kuo pointed out earlier that the initial stock of the Apple Vision Pro headset was around 6-8 000 units, and because the stock was not large, it would be sold out at the beginning.
But for now, the financial value of the Vision Pro seems to be declining, and Kuo said in a recent research report that Apple is expected to sell 160,000-180,000 units of the Vision Pro in the first weekend, based on the stock level and shipping date before the presale, so it should not be difficult to sell 500,000 units this year. But after bookings sold out, demand dropped rapidly. Ming-Chi Kuo also pointed out that earlier signals showed that the market demand for professional cameras in Vision has weakened. The shipping dates of these extended editions did not change 48 hours after the start of the booking, which caused a major concern: once there were loyal fans and a large number of users ordering, the demand in the market would soon decline.
Second, Ruijie Pro is not a life-saving straw.
At the moment, the iPhone is still its main profit**, contributing more than 50% of China's revenue, but, undeniably, the iPhone is taking a serious hit in China's smartphone market.
According to IDC statistics, the sales of iPhones reached 55.2 million units in the first quarter of this year, accounting for 205%, down 23%。In the second quarter, iPhone sales reached 42.5 million units, accounting for 16% of the market share, down 63%。In the third quarter of this year, iPhone sales reached 53.6 million units, accounting for 17The market share of 7% increased by 2 percent from the same period last year5%。As you can see, there has been a decline in iPhone sales overall.
In 2022, there will be 1166.9 billion smartphones, down 32%。Out of the three brands, Apple has reached 234.6 billion units, accounting for 201% market share, up 37%, becoming the largest brand in the world.
Although it ended in defeat, Apple won in painful ways. According to the statistics of the research company BCI, after the release of the iPhone 15, although Apple is still the largest among the high-end models at the price of 4000 yuan, accounting for 50% of the market share, its market share has decreased by 21 compared with the same period last year2%。In the four months since the release of the iPhone 15, the iPhone has seen a significant decline on multiple platforms, and this low-price strategy has contributed to it.
In 2024, Apple will start another ** war. From January 18 to January 21, Apple China** will start the New Year's Promotion, with a discount of 50-800 yuan for each mobile phone and 500 yuan for the iPhone 15 within the specified payment time.
The iPhone is the main source of the company's revenue, which is constantly decreasing, which shows that it is worried about sales problems and is showing weak performance.
Although the sales of Visual Pro have increased significantly, Apple sees it as the company's secondary growth curve, but now it seems that Visual Pro is not enough.
On the one hand, in order for consumers to continue to use and consume Vision Pro, it is necessary to build a content ecology that includes games, movies, **social networking and other fields, and Vision Pro uses the Vision OS system, it was previously reported that the main service object of Vision OS is iOS developers, but they do not know about the space development environment, and the current Vision OS version of the App application is limited to two-dimensional interaction, can not be fully utilized Hardware features of Vision Pro. It should be pointed out that it is not an overnight task to build a complete content ecosystem with partners in various industries.
In addition, the price of Vision Pro is also the focus of most consumers, compared with domestic AR equipment manufacturers, the price of more than 20,000 is obviously not cost-effective.
In addition, some companies** expect the Vision Pro to sell between 300,000 and 400,000 units in its first year, and even if it succeeds in completing the projected sales, it will only contribute $1.4 billion to the company, which is less than 1% of the company's total revenue. It can be seen that at this stage, Vision Pro is still difficult to save by Apple.
3. Can you pin Apple's expectations on the car?
iPhone sales are lower than expected, and Visual Pro is hard to dominate alone. In the long run, Apple is seen as its ultimate killer feature. But even so, in 2014, they did not achieve anything, but their vehicle development team, there were several serious problems, which eventually led to the dissolution of the company.
Recently, it was reported that Apple's driverless program will recruit more drivers, which has been discontinued since the beginning of next year. Now, the program has a total of 162 experimenters and 68 unmanned vehicles. According to people familiar with the news, Apple's car will be launched in 2026, and its ** will be under $100,000, use custom chips, and will not have full autonomy capabilities when it goes public.
Apple's fate can be described as tragic. Since 2014, Apple has launched the "Titan Project", which focuses on hardware and vehicle production, and the leader of this plan is Steve Zadesky of the first-generation iPod development team. To this end, the company has set up a fleet of 1,000 employees and continues to send talents to companies such as Google, Tesla, Mercedes-Benz, and Ford.
However, the "Titan Project" did not go very well, and the four executives of Apple left one after another, and various contradictions and problems arose within the company, which led to the "Titan Project" being at a standstill until the end of 2020, when Apple restarted the program.
In addition to all this chaos, Apple also has to conquer an important city. Jim Souwer, an analyst at Citigroup, said in a study that there is a lot of potential for growth in this space, and Apple's foray into the auto industry will help increase the company's total assets from 2 trillion to 3 trillion.
Manufacturing a car is a difficult job to do, as far as the entire industry chain is concerned, it is far more than the link of smart phones, and manufacturing a car not only has to bear huge financing costs, but also has to face the problem of mass production. But for now, there is a more important question, that is, as iPhone sales have peaked, will the Vision Pro still hold up?