On September 1, 2023, Daguanyuan netizens "As I heard" made a ** on the domestic economy, in which ** Big A will repeatedly break through 3000 points, and from then on turn down, breaking 2800 years ago. At that time, I thought he was conservative, I thought that Big A was sick, as the saying goes, "illness comes like a mountain", so I guessed that Big A would break 2600.
Sure enough, the trend of big A is basically the same as "if I smell it"**. As for my god-like **, whether it can break 2600 still needs to wait.
On February 2, Big A continued to be weak for a week, and in a wave of rapid killing, the Shanghai Composite Index hit 2666 intradayAt 33 points, the end of the session rose, closing at 273015 points, down 146%；The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 805577 points, down 224%；Kechuang 50 closed 67341 points, down 241%；The Beijing Stock Exchange 50 intraday** closed at 77338 points, down 48%。
On Monday, February 5th, the big A weakness did not change, and the opening went all the way down, and the Shanghai Composite Index once fell to 263509, the spectacular scene of the 1,000-share drop limit reappeared. Maybe it's because there is nothing to fall on, maybe it's because the mood is stable, and the ** in the afternoon began to rise, and even turned red for a while. Finally, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 270219 points, down 102%, Shenzhen Component Index closed at 796471, down 113%。The Beijing Stock Exchange closed at 74374, down 383%。The CSI 300 rose 065%, the ChiNext index rose 079%, which is considered a narrow escape from death.
However, although the Shanghai Composite Index is weak, it can be regarded as successfully holding 2700.
Some people say that the Shanghai Stock Exchange doesn't even dare to order takeout, which may be an exaggeration, but they did start to carefully check the express mail, after all, there are many stockholders, and everyone has it.
A shareholder in a financial forum asked worriedly: Will Big A fall for 20 consecutive years like Japan?
Some netizens comforted and said: No! We'll be able to fall into place in a year.
Indeed, Big A has gone from the previous "defending 3,000 points" to the current "thirsting for 3,000 points", which can be described as a collapse, faster than the speed of France's surrender in World War II, and of course, faster than the pace of the fleeing of the stockholders. It's just that this stumbling endlessly, what's going on?
Some people say, it's very simple, the economic environment is not good, the company's earning ability has deteriorated, the yield has declined, and the expectations of shareholders have also been lowered, so ***
There is nothing wrong, the logic is smooth, and it is in line with the textbook science.
In fact, how many of our stockholders have analyzed the price-earnings ratio? You may not even read the company's information, let alone the news, announcements and research reports, because everyone knows that it is useless to read it.
There is a good saying: Kung Fu is outside the poem.
In the Chinese style, the main focus should be on the inside story beyond data and technology. Investors are more interested in trends, gossip, recommendations, and stories.
Moreover, ours is like a casino, playing a zero-sum game, which has nothing to do with corporate dividends.
Therefore, although the above answers are in line with the theory of the textbook, they are not in line with the reality of the characteristic national conditions.
China's enterprises do not lack funds, opportunities, talents, and innovative wisdom and adventurous spirit!
What they lack is a stable policy guarantee and a safe environment for development. When neither of these is available, entrepreneurs will not sink their minds to seek development and chase the corresponding profit returns.
This is the same as our repeated call for "stimulating domestic demand", which has been stimulating, but has not improved. Why?
What consumers lack is not excitement, not slogans, but cash, survival security, and confidence in the future.
Some people say that it is because of the strict control during the epidemic, which has led to the deterioration of the economic environment and the setback of enterprise development.
Indeed, in recent years, due to the epidemic, the performance of listed companies has not been satisfactory. But the virus has no borders, why is the global economy growing steadily, reaching new highs, but only Big A can't afford to get sick? Everyone's recall:
The depreciation of Thailand's exchange rate in 1998 triggered the global financial crisis.
In 2008, the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, bank failures, housing prices, and the global financial crisis. At that time, the global economy was closely interconnected, and one was prosperous and one was lost, and the whole body was affected.
And now, China's housing prices are plummeting, but not to mention triggering the global financial crisis, there is not even a little turmoil. This is not very harmful to the identity of the world's second largest economy, and it is extremely insulting!
What does this mean?
This shows that the second largest economy has slowly become independent of the global economic cycle. However, this kind of independence is not an active choice, and the reason can be referred to the WTO commitment. Once decoupling begins, there must be a result, and this consequence may not be what we want, referring to the list of participating countries in the Belt and Road over the years. The situation now is:
You take your Yangguan Road, and I have my single-plank bridge.
You play your TPP, I play my Belt and Road.
It's just that verbally you can say "who can't do without whom", in fact, once decoupled, the result is a lose-lose situation, but one side is less injured, and the other side may not only hurt the muscles and bones, but if you don't get it right, you have to ......Reborn.
I'll tell you what I think, I think. Big A is not good, mainly due to the following deep-seated reasons.
First of all, there is a lack of a reasonable reward mechanism.
The establishment of the state is not to let people get rich through **, but to let companies lacking capital to raise funds through ** to promote redevelopment. At the same time, the social idle funds can also be affected by the benefits of enterprise development through the purchase of **.
As a result, the financing function of ** has indeed been strong, but the dividends are ......What is a dividend?
All companies will die. Since there is no mandatory dividend mechanism, it is impossible to expect stable income. And people buy ** but have to pursue returns!
Therefore, in the absence of a dividend mechanism, people can only play Big A as a casino. Stir it, fry it, fry it, beat the drum and pass the flowers, whoever the flowers fall will be the pick-up man.
Secondly, foreign capital continues to flee in large numbers. Why escape? Hear what BlackRock has to say.
BlackRock Capital: "When we finish building a position, there will be a large number of ** smashing plates, we are forced to do T, after doing T many times, we finally reduce the cost, thinking that it is finally stable, but I don't know that ** has a large number of votes thrown out." ”
I feel like we can't buy it all, we can't buy it at all! If you buy it, the company will be ours! ”
I thought that going public was for the sake of business development, and who knew that they wanted to sell the company. ”
Therefore, the hot money of foreign capital has run away, so there is less money to support the big A. Therefore, the big A index cannot stand.
Thirdly, the expectation that the CPTPP will replace the WTO may not be the same as the expectation that China will join the CPTPP.
WTO accession is a commitment system. The CPTPP requires that the standard be met first, and then joined. Let's look at the requirements:
1.Trade unions are independent and decoupled from **;
2.There will be no subsidies and support for state-owned enterprises, and state-owned enterprises, private enterprises and private enterprises will compete fairly;
3.Foreign-funded enterprise servers can stay in their home country;
4.The assets of civil servants are open to the people.
There are also five hard requirements:
1. A stable and transparent political system;
2. An open and free economic environment;
3. It has long-term market potential;
4. Good rights and interests of labor life and work;
5. Unanimous consent of the remaining Member States.
The importance of this CPTPP will not be expanded, but looking at the reasons for its establishment and the above conditions, we know that it will be extremely difficult for us to join.
If you don't, they won't take you to play. Even if it meets the standard, it may not take you to play. Because it requires the unanimous consent of all Member States.
You say, I'll continue to play WTO, but why did I set up CPTPP?
Finally, there is a deep fear of storage and waste.
Remember what the great man said in the beginning?
Capital zy can be engaged in **, and social zy can also be engaged. Try it resolutely, and if you don't get it, you can turn it off! ”
If you don't get it, you can turn off the ......
If it is turned off, it is not a matter of 3000 or 2000 points, but ......There is no such thing as a point.
Some people say, how can it be turned off!
Huh, anything is possible? What do you think?
Although Big A sucks, there is no doubt that it is the most sincere, more sincere than the men's football team.
When the whole people are filled with a positive and optimistic atmosphere, it still insists on using the best way to truly reflect China's economic status and expectations for the future.
Any economic phenomenon has its ups and downs, and only by telling the truth and telling the truth can it be possible to understand the truth.
When the tone of "forbidden singing" is determined, then we will lose half of the truth, and on the basis of "a great good", can we still judge accurately and make the right choice?
There is a paragraph that says:
May I ask the speaker, did any Chinese investors make money last year? ”
Yes," the spokesman humorously said: "In Taiwan!" ”
* The audience erupted in applause.
Really, Taiwan's ** trend is still quite good.