Since the beginning of the Spring Festival, we have often heard a statistic that the cross-regional flow of people in the whole society has exceeded 9 billion. What is the cross-regional flow of people in the whole society? Let's find out.
Judging from the caliber released by the Ministry of Transport, the statistical caliber of the Spring Festival passenger flow of comprehensive transportation in 2024 has changed significantly. Before the Spring Festival in 2023, the passenger flow will only count the commercial passenger traffic of railways, highways, waterways, and civil aviation; In 2023, the concept of "personnel flow" will be introduced for the first time in the Spring Festival transportation, and on the basis of commercial passenger traffic, the travel volume of passenger cars on national highways will be included in the statistical scope of Spring Festival passenger flow; In 2024, according to the Ministry of Transport's "Implementation Plan for the Reform of Passenger Transport Statistics", the statistical caliber will be further expanded, and the travel volume of ordinary national and provincial highway passenger cars will be added to it.
Liu Xin, Deputy Director of the Research Office of the Comprehensive Transportation Research Center of the Academy of Science of the Ministry of Transport: The most fundamental reason for the change in statistical caliber is the profound structural changes in the public's travel habits. From the perspective of travel mode, the scale of railway civil aviation passenger traffic is generally on the rise. However, highways still play a fundamental role, accounting for more than ninety percent of the flow of people. In recent years, the public's demand for flexibility, convenience and personalized travel has increased significantly, and more and more people choose to travel by car. On the basis of the statistics of commercial passenger traffic, the number of non-commercial passenger cars on expressways and ordinary national and provincial highways has been increased, in order to better improve the comprehensiveness and accuracy of passenger flow data, better reflect the actual operation of the industry, and better reflect the vitality of "mobile China".
How is 9 billion people calculated?
With the flow of 9 billion people, the number of people traveling during the Spring Festival this year can be said to have hit a new high. How is the number of passengers in the Spring Festival transportation calculated? What is the structure of passenger flow this year, and what are the characteristics?
Liu Xin, Deputy Director of the Research Office of the Comprehensive Transportation Research Center of the Academy of Science of the Ministry of Transport: The scale of the Spring Festival passenger flow, in a nutshell, is calculated according to the historical data of the Spring Festival passenger flow and the daily monitoring and statistics of passenger flow, passenger car flow and other data, taking into account the trend change law.
The passenger flow of the Spring Festival is mainly composed of five parts: the flow of visiting relatives, the flow of workers, the flow of tourists, the flow of students and other travel passengers. Among them, the flow of family visits and migrant workers accounted for the largest proportion. Judging from the composition of the spring business passenger flow released by the Ministry of Transport in 2023, the flow of visiting relatives accounts for more than half of the total; The flow of migrant workers accounts for more than 20%, the flow of tourists and other tourists accounts for about 10%, and the flow of students is small, less than 5%. The composition of the passenger flow of the Spring Festival in 2024 is basically the same as that of last year, and the total flow of visiting relatives and workers accounts for nearly eighty percent.
From the perspective of time distribution, due to the late Spring Festival in 2024, the pre-holiday flow of students, migrant workers, and relatives is staggered, and the intensity of passenger flow is relatively stable. After the holiday, multiple passenger flows are superimposed, and it is expected to be at the beginning of the first month.
8. There will be two peaks of return passenger flow around the 16th day of the first lunar month. From the perspective of spatial distribution, the tidal characteristics of passenger flow and the radiation characteristics from the central city to the surrounding small and medium-sized cities are obvious, and the demand for cross-regional travel in the provinces with large labor and labor export is relatively strong. At the same time, judging from the sales of Internet platform products, the Spring Festival tourism flow will usher in a substantial increase, and theme tourism such as "island tours" and "ice and snow tours" will become popular choices, and outbound tourism will usher in explosive growth.
*: CCTV News).