**: Brokerage China.
Approaching the Spring Festival, A-shares finally ushered in a long-awaited surge in volume, bringing some warmth to investors.
On February 6, the domestic ** opened low and went high, and collectively rose. As of **, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 323%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rose 622%, the GEM index rose 671%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index rose by more than 9%, and innovative drugs, large holdings, small metals and other sectors rose first. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets on the day was 926.3 billion yuan, an increase of 48.9 billion yuan from the previous trading day.
What factors are supporting the market rally? How will the follow-up market** be interpreted? Which sectors are the most noteworthy opportunities? Brokerage China reporters interviewed nine ** companies to bring the latest interpretation to investors.
Huijin and other medium and long-term institutional funds increased their holdings
* The company generally believes that the market rose sharply on February 6, thanks to the positive voices of many departments to boost market confidence, and the expectation of incremental funds entering the market to boost investors' risk appetite, and break the negative feedback of funds brought about by the rising risk aversion in the market in the early stage.
On the news side, on February 6, ** Huijin Company announced that it fully recognized the value of the current A** field allocation, and has recently expanded the scope of exchange-traded open-ended index ** (ETF) holdings, and will continue to increase its holdings, expand the scale of holdings, and resolutely maintain the smooth operation of the capital market. The China Securities Regulatory Commission also said that it will firmly support ** Huijin to increase the scale and intensity of its holdings, and create more convenient conditions and smoother channels for its market entry operations.
Liu Jun, assistant general manager and director of the index investment department of Huatai Berry, believes that since the beginning of this year, in the case of the relative weakness of the A** field, Huijin, as a representative of China's medium and long-term institutional investors, has increased its holdings of ETFs against the market, showing strong confidence in the performance of the market outlook, which to a certain extent indicates that the capital market has entered the deep value range and the allocation value is highlighted.
On February 6, the ETF market ushered in a collective**, with the STAR 100 ETF and STAR 100 Index ETF rising by more than 10%. In addition, the mainstream broad-based ETF has significantly increased in volume, and the CSI 300 ETF with a scale of more than 100 billion yuan has **321%, with a full-day turnover of more than 6.5 billion yuan, and ChiNext ETFs, SSE 50 ETFs, and CSI 1000 ETFs are ** 79% respectively, with a full-day turnover of more than 5 billion yuan.
Harvest** further stated that in the process of providing liquidity to the market, relevant investment institutions use ETFs as the main tool because ETFs have unique advantages in investing in the market in an all-round way. Investing in A-shares through ETFs allows you to deploy a large number of A-share companies with investment value with one click. For investors, ETFs can diversify investment risk; For the market, funds enter the market through ETFs, which can provide liquidity for more high-quality companies.
It should be pointed out that the cost-effectiveness of A-share investment has been recognized by many institutional investors, and Huijin is just one of them. Since the beginning of 2024, there have been a number of public and private equity companies such as Ruiyuan**, Vermilion Bird**, and High-Flyer Quant have announced their own purchase of their products and invested in the A** field, High-Flyer Quant said that since the beginning of this year, the market volatility has intensified, and there has been irrationality, but the company has always believed that the market will gradually return to the normal track, and has always believed in the investment value of the Chinese market.
Huaxia ** said that the continuous entry of medium and long-term institutional funds into the market will help optimize the investor structure, guide the direction of market investment, and form a virtuous circle of mutual promotion between the real economy and the capital market.
Long power is accumulating
In addition to medium and long-term institutional investors such as Huijin Company have increased their holdings, the China Securities Regulatory Commission has also suspended the scale of refinancing securities of new ** companies to further restore market confidence.
On February 6, E Fund, Huaxia, GF, Fuguo, Nanfang and other ** companies announced that they would strictly implement the relevant requirements of the China Securities Regulatory Commission on securities lending business, suspend the new refinancing lending scale, and prudently and steadily promote the gradual completion of the existing refinancing lending scale to ensure the smooth operation of related businesses.
The darkness before dawn is the hardest. Historically, A-shares have faced many difficulties, but they have all successfully come out of it. Huaxia ** said, "At this difficult bottom, we not only saw the influx of incremental funds, but also saw the sincerity and determination of the policy, saw the historical experience of the bottom, and saw the objective law of the cycle." In the future, as the chips are gradually cleared, the accumulation of long power means that any unexpected events in terms of fundamentals and funds can bring about a recovery in confidence. ”
Looking forward to the market outlook, a number of ** companies believe that there are obvious signs of overshoot in the current A** field, but at the same time, it has also created more space for the future.
Bosera believes that since the beginning of the year, A-shares have continued to be the best, the bottom characteristics are obvious, the market has entered a cost-effective range, and there is a demand for the best. On February 6, the net inflow of northbound funds exceeded 10 billion yuan, which boosted market sentiment to a certain extent. "The current policy side continues to be positive, and the intention to maintain stability is obvious, which is conducive to the gradual recovery of market confidence. Before the Spring Festival, there is a high probability that A-shares will be wide**. With the increasing number of positive factors, we can be more optimistic about the subsequent performance of A-shares. ”
Everbright Prudential** also said that it continues to be optimistic about the market outlook, especially after the recent adjustment of small-cap stocks, the valuation of the whole market is relatively low. In the future, the market is more conservative in its economic expectations, but the company observes that credit and other loans are better, and macro data may exceed market expectations, bringing about an increase in risk appetite.
Keep an eye out for over-the-top opportunities in the market
Standing at the current point in time, a number of first-class company investment researchers believe that the medium and long-term investment value of A-shares has gradually emerged, and investors can focus on the over-falling opportunities in the market.
Li Zhan, chief economist of the China Merchants Research Department, suggested that short-term policies should actively boost confidence, and the market is expected to bottom out and stabilize, focusing on the over-falling opportunities of growth stocks; In the medium term, the current valuation and risk premium of A-shares have reached a historically low level, and when counter-cyclical fiscal and monetary policies are introduced in a timely manner to maintain stability and stabilize the market, economic expectations will be revised upward, and the micro transaction structure will be gradually cleared.
CITIC Prudential believes that at present, the entire market is caught in the dilemma of negative feedback of the fundamental spiral, but the company believes that the current market valuation reflects the overly pessimistic medium and long-term expectations, the short-term overfall is more obvious, there are repair opportunities, and the opportunity for the reversal of the predicament of some growth stocks may appear in the second half of the year and re-enter the growth channel. The direction that the company focuses on throughout the year includes the super-falling growth industry with the reversal of the predicament in the second half of the year, the high-quality white horse with a reasonable valuation for a long time after a long-term valuation, and the value direction with a slight growth but high operating quality in the future.
Great Wall ** made it clear that it is optimistic about the investment opportunities in the semiconductor industry, and the company believes that with the rapid iteration of AI technology and application, the semiconductor market demand will usher in**. Especially as the destocking of the semiconductor industry in the third quarter of 2023 comes to an end, the production capacity in the fourth quarter begins to recover, the destocking has been basically completed, and the recovery of superimposed demand will gradually enter the semiconductor industry as the semiconductor industry enters an upward cycle.
The irrational ** is expected to be corrected, the short term is an excellent time to lay out high-quality companies, at present, bottom-up industry selection and ** selection is more important. "Morgan Stanley** believes that on the one hand, it is worth paying attention to companies with stable future operations, abundant operating cash flow and declining capital expenditures, and such companies have strong repurchase capabilities; On the other hand, some leading companies in subdivided industries brought about by the systematic downturn of the market in the early stage have been wrongly killed, and such companies have a high cost performance.
Editor-in-charge: Zhu Yumeng.
Proofreading: Li**.
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