At the beginning of this year, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) launched a series of actual combat exercises around Taiwan Island, which made Japan nervous. According to Japanese media reports, starting in 2022, the PLA has planned to form a "pocket" around the island of Taiwan, consisting of four frigate detachments to ensure sea and air supremacy around the Taiwan Strait. This "pocket" is not only capable of monitoring the military situation on Taiwan in real time, but also can keep an eye on US military bases in Okinawa and Luzon in the Philippines. This arrangement allows the PLA to grasp the situation in the Taiwan Strait at the first time and enhance China's voice in South China Sea affairs. The move has unnerved Japan, and Kishida** has begun to prepare for a possible "refugee wave". Title: Kishida**'s provocative behavior, will Japan become a "refuge" for a conflict in the Taiwan Strait? Japan**, under Fumio Kishida, has long followed the provocative actions of the United States on China, but is not prepared to face the consequences.
However, in the event of a conflict in Taiwan, Japan, as an outpost of the US military in the first island chain, will not be able to stand alone, let alone become a refuge for the "refugees" who have fled from Taiwan. Kishida has been actively involved in U.S. provocative actions against China, such as supporting U.S. freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea, while strengthening military cooperation with Taiwan and taking a tougher stance toward China. However, such actions have undoubtedly increased tensions between Japan and China and could lead to serious consequences. The Taiwan issue has always been one of China's core interests, and China has always adhered to the one-China principle and will never tolerate any behavior that regards Taiwan as an "independent state." In the event of a conflict over Taiwan, China will inevitably take resolute measures to defend the country's unity and territorial integrity. Under such circumstances, Japan, as an important ally of the US military in the first island chain, cannot stay out of the situation.
However, Kishida does not seem to be aware of this, and they have been making excuses for their provocative actions in an attempt to shift the blame to China. But in any case, when the Taiwan issue really escalates, Japan will have to face reality and bear the consequences of its actions. So, if there is a conflict in Taiwan, will Japan become a refuge for the "refugees" who have fled from Taiwan? The answer is clearly no. First of all, Japan is a highly developed country with a very limited population and resources. If millions or even tens of millions of Taiwanese people pour into Japan, this will put tremendous pressure and burden on Japan's society, economy, and security. Japan itself has many internal problems that need to be resolved, such as an aging population and labor shortages, and it is difficult to bear more burdens. Second, Japan's relationship with China has always been very sensitive.
Tensions between the two countries have been exacerbated by sensitive issues such as historical and territorial disputes, coupled with Kishida**'s provocative behavior. If Japan becomes a "refuge" from the conflict over Taiwan, this will further deteriorate relations between the two countries, leading to an even more dangerous and unavoidable situation. Finally, the attitude of the international community towards Japan is also an important factor. Japan's war crimes and acts of aggression during World War II have made it have a bad reputation in the international community. If Japan shows too much partiality on the Taiwan issue and even becomes a "refuge" for the most powerful forces, this will cause widespread dissatisfaction and condemnation from the international community and may lead to Japan's isolation in the international arena. To sum up, Kishida**'s provocative behavior has undoubtedly brought great risks and challenges to Japan. If a conflict breaks out in Taiwan, Japan will not be able to stand alone, let alone become a refuge for the "refugees" who have fled from Taiwan.
Kishida should seriously consider the impact of his actions on Japan and the entire Asia-Pacific region, and pursue a peaceful and stable solution, rather than blindly following the provocative actions of the United States. It is only through dialogue and cooperation that peace and prosperity in the region can be achieved.