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Turkey has always maintained close economic and political relations with Russia, which has made the attitude of the United States towards Turkey increasingly complex and sensitive. Although the United States has repeatedly warned Turkey to distance itself from Russia and imposed sanctions on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Turkey has not succumbed to US pressure and continues to engage in a large number of exchanges and energy cooperation with Russia. In order to prevent further warming of relations between Turkey and Russia, the United States decided to provide Turkey with 40 new F-16 fighter jets, as well as modernization kits, with a total value of about $23 billion. However, the United States, under the pretext of "large quantities ordered", has delayed deliveries until 2028. This so-called "empty check" is actually a warning and a means of pressure from the United States against Turkey.
Turkey planned to buy F-16 fighters as early as 2019, but insisted on buying Russian S-400 air defense systems despite warnings from the United States, which led the United States to halt arms sales to Turkey and cancel its purchase of F-35 fighters. Now, although the United States has agreed to export F-16 fighters to Turkey, it has delayed the delivery time until 2028, which undoubtedly makes Turkey** disappointed and dissatisfied. Turkey will have to face pressure and patience from the United States again, while also taking into account the changes in the political and military situation that it may face after the delivery time.
Behind Turkey's purchase of F-16 fighters, there is also a political goal, which is Turkey's approval of Sweden's accession to NATO. As a long-time ally of the United States, Turkey has long been seen as having an active role to play within NATO. However, Turkey's opposition to Sweden and Finland's accession to NATO has led to increased US discontent with Turkey. Therefore, the United States made the provision of F-16 fighters to Turkey in order to force Turkey to agree to join NATO. However, there are risks associated with this US approach. On the one hand, if the United States suddenly reneges on its promise to deliver fighter jets to Turkey, Sweden's "accession" plan may be affected, triggering diplomatic disputes and regional turmoil. On the other hand, if Turkey turns to Russia to buy fighter jets, it will further increase regional tensions, which will also be detrimental to the United States.
In addition, the "blank check" of the United States to Turkey also reflects the complexity and sensitivity of the U.S.-Turkish relationship. The United States does not want to see Turkey's relations with Russia warm up further, as this could adversely affect the geopolitical interests of the United States. However, Turkey's choice to continue to cooperate with Russia in the current international situation shows Turkey's adherence to its independent foreign policy and its opposition to unilateral sanctions by the United States. U.S. pressure and warnings did not shake Turkey, but instead stuck to its choice. Therefore, the "blank check" given to Turkey by the United States may only be a superficial tough gesture, and in fact it will not change Turkey's decision-making and policy stance.
The complexity and sensitivity of the U.S.-Turkish relationship were on full display in this transaction. The United States, as one of the world's largest exporters, can influence Turkey's policies and decision-making by providing Turkey with advanced systems. However, Turkey, as an important military power and geopolitical player in the region, will not easily succumb to US pressure and intervention. This complexity and sensitivity is both a challenge and an opportunity for both parties. As far as the United States is concerned, how to correctly handle its relations with Turkey is a severe test for safeguarding its own interests and promoting regional stability and peace. For Turkey, how to balance its relations with Russia and its relations with the United States is also an important issue for Turkey to achieve its own strategic goals while avoiding falling into international disputes and regional conflicts.
Looking back at US-Turkish relations over the past few years, we can see that tensions and contradictions between the two sides have always existed. Turkey's military actions and foreign policy initiatives have often provoked strong dissatisfaction and warnings from the United States. However, in the midst of changes in the international situation and the readjustment of regional interests, the two countries have to seek cooperation and compromise on certain issues. The decision of the United States to provide F-16 fighters to Turkey this time not only reflects the pressure and warning of the United States on Turkey, but also hints that it is possible to find a relatively balanced and stable relationship model between the two sides.
To sum up, the "blank check" of the United States against Turkey is a warning and a means of pressure on Turkey, but its actual effect depends on the decisions and actions of Turkey. Turkey must carefully consider its economic and military cooperation with Russia, as well as its relations and cooperation with the United States. As far as the United States is concerned, how to correctly handle its relations with Turkey is a severe test for safeguarding its own interests and promoting regional stability and peace. Both sides need to pursue common interests and avoid triggering greater conflict and tension on the basis of mutual respect and equal cooperation. In the future, there are still many uncertainties in the development of US-Turkey relations, and the two sides need to work together to establish a stable and sustainable cooperative relationship.
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