China, the United States and Japan announced their debts, the United States exceeded 34 trillion, Japan 10 trillion, what about China?
Many people think that Evergrande has a debt of 24 trillion is already a "natural debt", in fact, this is just the debt of a real estate company. You must know that a country's debt is far more than that, the United States currently has a debt of more than 34 trillion, and Japan's debt has reached 105 trillion, so do you know how much China is in debt?
01 Global debt has risen to a new level.
As we all know, in the process of development, a country will not only produce a steady stream of wealth, but also continue to accumulate debt, especially when the economy is developing rapidly, a prosperity will also lead to an accelerated increase in the scale of debt.
In 2023, for example, global debt has risen to a new level, exceeding $310 trillion for the first time, and according to the Institute of International Finance (IIF), global debt has increased by a "staggering" $100 trillion over the past decade. The United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, and France saw the largest increases.
However, the total GDP of all countries in the world is only 100 trillion US dollars, and the ratio of global debt to GDP has remained above 300% in the past two years.
02 The scale of U.S. debt.
Data show that in the past decade, the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom and France are the countries with the largest increase in global debt.
According to the latest data released by the US Treasury in early January, the total US national debt exceeded $34 trillion for the first time and is on its way to $35 trillion. You must know that in September 2023, the US debt has just exceeded $33 trillion. Now, after only three months, the US debt has increased by $1 trillion, which shows that the US debt is growing very fast.
At present, the United States has a total population of more than 300 million, which is equivalent to every American carrying a debt of $100,000, and if each family pays $1,000 a month, then the debt will have to be repaid for 22 years.
However, U.S. bonds also have their particularities, and the debtors of U.S. bonds are not only in the United States, but other overseas countries also hold U.S. bonds, but the proportion is not high, only more than 7 trillion U.S. dollars are held by overseas countries, accounting for only 22 percent of the total U.S. debt5%。
And the remaining nearly 80% of the US debt, that is, more than $26 trillion of US debt, is held by the Americans themselves! Therefore, in a sense, U.S. debt tends to be more "internal debt", such as U.S. enterprises, institutions, groups, organizations, etc.
However, with the continuous interest rate hike of the US dollar in recent years, most countries have chosen US bonds in order to avoid risk, and with the continuous rise of US debt, the potential risks behind it have become increasingly prominent.
At present, the United States has not cut interest rates for the time being, which means that interest rates are still high, which will directly lead to a continuous increase in interest to be repaid in the United States. In 2024, the U.S. will have about 76 trillion, a record high, and the U.S. fiscal deficit has reached 1$7 trillion, which indicates that the debt problem of the United States will only get worse.
However, recently the United States ** Yellen said that the U.S. economy has a soft landing, the new U.S. non-farm data exceeded market expectations, objectively speaking, the economy of the United States is not as good as they imagined, but it is not as bad as we think, look at it rationally.
03 Japan's debt scale.
Although Japan's debt ratio is lower than that of the United States, its debt ratio is not only higher than that of the United States, but it is also the largest in the world.
Since the 90s of the 20th century, Japan's economy has shifted from high-speed growth to long-term low growth, and the potential growth rate has dropped from about 4% in the 80s to 0 percent at present4%。
There are many reasons behind this trend, such as labor shortages due to the declining birthrate and aging population, mismatch of human resources and skills, slow corporate metabolism, weak local economy, and low desire among young people, resulting in a continuous increase in Japan's debt ratio.
According to data released by the Ministry of Finance, Japan's debt has reached 2. % of GDP5 times, so Japan's debt has reached 10 trillion US dollars, accounting for 250% of its GDP.
04 China's debt data.
According to the latest data from the central bank, the balance of treasury bonds in custody is 261 trillion yuan, while China's GDP last year was 121 trillion yuan, and the debt ratio was only 215%。Even if the scale of local debt of 30 trillion yuan is counted, China's total debt is only 561 trillion yuan.
Counting the treasury bond custody balance alone, according to the latest exchange rate, China's treasury bond custody balance is equivalent to 3$98 trillion, compared to $34 trillion in the United States and more than $10 trillion in Japan. In addition, in 2022, China's GDP will be 121 trillion, and the debt ratio will only be 215%, while the debt ratio of the United States is 136%, and the debt ratio of Japan is 250%, if we only look at the proportion of national debt to GDP, China's debt ratio is very low.
However, it is worth noting that China's local debt is a factor that must be taken into account. According to the data, the balance of local bonds across the country exceeded 40 trillion yuan for the first time. However, this does not include local hidden debts, such as the liabilities of local urban investment companies, which are difficult to estimate because they are "hidden".
Previously, the rating agency Standard & Poor's issued a report saying that the scale of China's local implicit debt could be as high as 40 trillion yuan (about 6.).0 trillion dollars) or more, but no specific data has been officially released in recent years.
However, some scholars predict that this hidden debt may reach 60 trillion, and if calculated according to this number, all debts combined, China's debt scale may reach 11610,000 yuan, converted into US dollars is 11$20,000. It accounts for 95% of GDP, which is also much healthier than the United States and Japan.
In short, the scale of our country's debt is not as high as that of the United States, the focus is that the debt ratio is still under control, and more importantly, behind China's debt is a lot of fixed assets, such as investment in various infrastructure, airports, high-speed rail, subways, tunnels, bridges, highways, etc. While these investments have increased debt, they have also boosted the economy and improved transportation.
From a long-term perspective, infrastructure investment is conducive to stimulating local economic growth, strengthening economic exchanges between regions, and laying the foundation for long-term economic development.
And the U.S. economy depends on consumers and financial services. After printing large quantities of money, financial assistance is provided directly to residents and businesses. After the consumption is completed, there is no corresponding fixed assets, but the liabilities continue to accumulate. In this case, the risk of a debt crisis and economic crisis will be higher if there is a debt default in the future.
At the end of the day, each country's economic drive model is different, we are built on a huge industrial and manufacturing base, with physical manufacturing being the foundation of the country, while the United States is the world's largest financial empire under the hegemony of the dollar, relying more on consumption and services.
So, what do you think about the size of the debt of the United States, Japan, and China?
Wan Ziwen said: Every word of the article is typed out by me, and I am reading it by clicking on it, so that I know that you are also doing your best for life.