The property market that has been silent for 3 years, everyone is waiting to see if the property market still has a "reversal opportunity", whether it is an individual or a business, in fact, they are no longer willing to see the economic downturn, after all, the house is an important wealth of the family, and real estate is the job bowl of more than 100,000 real estate companies to make a living, and it is difficult to real estate in the past, mainly reflected in the following three aspects:
First, there are too many houses on the market, coupled with the unexpected situation in 2020, the property market that has not reached saturation has been saturated in a short period of time, and the demand for housing has plummeted, but the houses have not decreased accordingly, resulting in having to reduce prices to survive.
Second, the employment pressure of young people has increased, as the main force of young people to buy houses, since graduation began to worry about their livelihoods, worry about employment, and dare not consider buying a house at all, only a few families with solid family background have the conditions to buy a house, so that the overall property market is out of touch in a short period of time.
Third, a few years ago, housing prices were relatively fast, many families did not have better investment channels, and they wanted to invest in real estate with a little spare money, and the central bank survey data showed that China's urban families accounted for more than 41 more than two suites5%, but the decline in housing prices in the past three years has directly shrunk the assets of these multi-suite families, and the degree of shrinkage has even reached 50%.
According to China's adjustment practice for the development of the property market, the property market will generally be adjusted at the beginning of each year, and this year's adjustment, will there be a "reversal opportunity"? Let's take a look.
There are many factors that affect the property market, but there are two main aspects that have a greater impact on the current market.
One is the cost of buying a home for buyers, mainly the mortgage interest. In the 10 years of rapid real estate development (2010-2020), the average mortgage interest rate remained at 5About 5%, the total interest of a 30-year loan to buy a house is more than the principal, and the average calculation of a house is about 1 million yuan, and the mortgage interest is close to 800,000 yuan.
Although the mortgage interest rate has been lowered in recent years, there has been no momentum of reducing the mortgage interest rate for a long time from the second half of 2023, and after the time comes to 2024, the latest 5-year benchmark interest rate has room for further reduction, according to the announcement of the National Interbank Peer Funding Center authorized by the central bank, the LPR for more than 5 years on February 20, 2024 is 395%, this one-time reduction of 25 basis points, the reduction is surprisingly large, the usual practice is generally reduced by 5-15 basis points, the side shows the country's unprecedented determination to stabilize the property market, of course, it also shows that there are still many variables in the property market in 2024, and it is necessary to exchange price for volume to protect the property market.
The second is the difficulty of financing for real estate enterprises. We know that in the past three years, China has been doing an important thing for real estate: that is, real estate companies to reduce debt, in order to reduce debt, even leading real estate companies such as Evergrande have been pulled into the water, you can imagine how difficult it is to finance real estate companies in the past three years, Zhuge Housing Data Research Center has randomly sampled 100 typical listed real estate companies in the country to do statistics, and found that the pass rate of the three red lines during the peak period is only 27%, which is equivalent to 73% of the country's real estate companies are stepping on the line.
This year's real estate enterprise financing market has been significantly improved, and it was clearly stated at the ** economic meeting at the end of 2023 that it is necessary to actively and steadily resolve real estate risksMeet the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises with different ownership systems without discriminationCCTV news report data shows that as of February 20, 2024, more than 100 cities across the country have successfully established an urban real estate financing coordination mechanism, and the bank's credit to real estate has reached 160 billion yuan.
Overall, if the financing difficulties of real estate enterprises are completely solved, there will be a turnaround for stabilizing the new housing market, and at the same time, reducing the cost of buying houses for buyers, to a certain extent, can also promote people's desire to buy houses, but it is still too early to conclude that the property market has bottomed out, after all, the recovery of property market confidence mainly depends on economic recovery, and the people's pockets are bulging, and buying houses is more confident, so as to fundamentally solve the problem of real estate enterprises returning funds, and financing can only play an emergency role.
During the Spring Festival, China's second-hand housing ushered in a "good start", according to the Shell Research Institute statistics of 50 key cities across the country data show that during the Spring Festival (8 days), second-hand housing in first, second and third-tier cities increased year-on-year respectively, from the data, the real estate market seems to have really appeared "reversal opportunity", in fact, the reason why the second-hand housing transaction volume has explodedOn the one hand, it is low enough, a large number of second-hand landlords take advantage of the return tide to sell their properties, compared with new houses, second-hand houses have enough advantages, on the other hand, the current lending interest rate is at a low interest rate level, in the eyes of buyers is cost-effective enough, so the low interest rate advantage and low interest rate advantage accelerate the process of buying a house.
However, the recovery of the second-hand housing market is still difficult to represent the full recovery of the property market, there is a clear contrast between the new housing market and the second-hand housing market, the new housing market during the Spring Festival, the data of 25 typical cities tested by the China Index Research Institute show that the transaction area fell by 27% year-on-year, and the number of daily transactions (about 30 sets) in 10 key cities tested by Zhuge Housing Research Center decreased by 13 year-on-year5%, these key cities are mainly popular real estate cities in the country, and the transaction data does not increase but falls, indicating that other unpopular cities are not better.
On the whole, the reversal of the property market in a short period of time is at most only the volume of transactions to pick up, the possibility of housing prices reversal is not large, the most intuitive embodiment is the relationship between supply and demand, by the end of 2023, the national commercial housing for sale area reached 6700 million square meters, accounting for 55% of the national commercial housing sales area in 2023, according to the January 2024 National Hundred Cities Residential Report released by the Shanghai E-House Research Institute, the current inventory removal cycle of China's property market is 22In 9 months, the current property market problem is actually to find a way to inventory, not to pull house prices.
Judging from the above new signals in the property market, buying and selling houses actually have answers in people's minds.
Compared with 2015-2020, it is more cost-effective to buy a house at present, after all, most of the current second-hand houses are at the level of about 2015, if there is indeed a real demand for buying a house, buy a house early or rejoice early, sooner or later you have to buy a house to solve the problem of living, and you don't need to worry too much about whether to buy expensive, after the adjustment of the property market in the past three years, even if the house price has not bottomed out, it is not far from the bottom, But if it is an investment to buy a house, you need to be cautious, at present, it seems that there are basically no investment opportunities in the new housing market, only some second-hand houses**, in the face of the landlord's urgent need to realize, there may be a few investment opportunities.
From the perspective of selling houses, if it is a multi-suite family or investor, it depends on whether the property held has scarcity conditions, the so-called scarcity conditions, including community, greening, surrounding facilities, property, education, medical care, transportation, etc., high-quality houses still have a lot of competitiveness in the market, not bad money or can be held for a period of time to wait and see the economic recovery, if the house does not have scarcity conditions, stop loss is a wise move, long-term holding of inferior real estate, it is better to get rid of it as soon as possible to find high-quality investment opportunities; But if it is a developer, it is better to hurry up and take a shot, after all, the financing cost of the developer is higher than that of a personal loan, and it is not wise to press the land or house in your hands for a long time.
Whether it is buying a house or selling a house, in fact, the answer is very clear, the overall real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, this stage is likely to continue to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the end of the US-Hu conflict, or the end of the United States ** in 2024, the global situation has a great impact on China's economic development, not only will share our energy for economic development, but also indirectly affect the development of China's import and export industryIt's better to miss out than to buy wrong, because most people's lives only have one or two opportunities for trial and error in buying a house.