ForewordI saw him rise up a tall building, I saw him feast guests, I saw his building collapse...
He has been in the real estate industry for nearly 20 years, and he has long been indifferent to the real estate cycle. Although it is difficult to predict macroeconomic trends and national real estate markets, it is much easier to predict the trends of sectors and even urban markets.
A few days ago, I chatted with old friends, Langya, the largest city in Lunan City, the most well-known data and ** company has laid off 7% of employees compared with its peak, and I can't help but make waves, and I want to review this round of real estate market cycle with you. From the perspective of the actual case of Langya urban area, this paper restores and reviews the cyclical trend of the real estate market, and analyzes the main factors affecting its trend cycle. 
3 billion in a single disc! Langya walked out of independence**. After the market trough in 2014 and 2015, in 2016 and 2018, under the background of rapid economic growth, the real estate policy environment has been relaxed for many years, the progress of destocking has accelerated, and the real estate market has warmed up and heated up.
From the end of 2018 to 2019, with the tightening of regulatory policies, with Jinan and Qingdao as the leaders, the real estate market in most cities in Shandong has declined, but some cities have come out of independence, such as Langya, with a huge demographic dividend, the wealth of the sky favors this big city in southern Lunan, and the market capacity once crushed Yantai, second only to Qingdao and Jinan, and became the third largest real estate market entity in Shandong Province.
Zhongnan Lushangyue Mansion opened 6 in 2018, with a single sales of more than 220,000 and a sales volume of nearly 3 billion, the price of high-rise buildings skyrocketed from 9,500 to 12,500, and the number of houses skyrocketed from 11,500 to 15,500! In the first half of 2019, the project was basically liquidated, with annual sales of more than 2 billion yuan per disk, the price of high-rise buildings soared to 16,500, and the price of bungalows soared to nearly 20,000!
There is only one central enterprise, which chose rational restraint after the successful conclusion of the case in the first game - Tangyue, although he missed the oxtail, he was lucky to avoid the bear market, he is Poly.
7 minutes, 408.8 billion! The last madnessMadnessAt the end of 2019, Langya North Railway Station was opened, and the convenient high-speed rail transportation accelerated the population of the county, and the huge demand guarantee made the Linyi housing market continue to be hot.
In addition to local real estate companies such as Ruchen, Taishengheng, Diwang, and **Zhiyuan, foreign predators such as Xuyin and Zhongnan have made a fortune, and their annual sales of 3 billion yuan have stood out among many urban companies and become a star team of stars holding the moon, and the management backbone has also been rocket-likely promoted!
However, the single-disc sales champion in 2020 is not a traditional strength real estate company, but Chengtou Liu Qingxiyue!
At 9 o'clock in the morning on August 1, Liu Qingxiyue in Beicheng New District selected houses online, launching 690 high-rise units, 408 small high-rise units, and 386 western-style houses, with a total of 1484 units; Hardcover high-rise 15,500 yuan, small high 18,000 yuan, bungalow 20,650 yuan, partially bound storage room, 7 minutes later, 1,484 sets of ** sold out, sales of 408.8 billion!
For Langya, the first-line real estate companies are all salivating, and a well-known data service ** city entry report received a hand, optimistic assertion coupled with the "efforts" of investors, in 2019, Country Garden, Vanke and other pioneers entered and successfully earned a pot of gold.
The trajectory in the first half of 2020 was as usual, but in the second half of the year, with the replacement of the top leader and the change of governing ideas, the land market was in full swing, and the transaction was blowout again.
Unfortunately, Zhonghai, Zhongliang, and Greenland, which were stationed in Langya in 2020, and Jinke and Sunac in 2021, ran all the way and fell into a deep pit.
Even so, in 2021, the alternative Langya real estate market will still be crazy like "returning to the light", with Country Garden Genting single plate 3.9 billion, and Country Garden's annual sales of 6.5 billion to throw off its opponents, crowning Langya! The local star real estate company - Tailu soared to the second place with the annual sales of 3.2 billion yuan in a single plate of Tailu Times City! The high-end villa project - Aozheng Yayuan was first opened with a ceiling of 31,000 yuan and sold against the market, winning the luxury house sales championship with an annual sales volume of nearly 2 billion!
But this is also the end of the strong crossbow after the inertia of high-speed development, and it is the last remnant of the current round of the bull market of Langya Real Estate, the gears of fate have turned, and the crisis has been accompanied by the bleak golden nine and silver ten as scheduled!
When an avalanche occurs, no snowflake is innocentIn the second half of 2020, Langya's top leader changed, breaking the iron law of "regulating the real estate market with the land market" that has been followed for many years, ignoring the bloody and tearful lessons of the large land supply ten years ago, and instead revitalizing the land, increasing the **, and centralizing the land supply in Beicheng New District, which also opened its arms to the first-line developers who are eager for Langya. 
Although the land supply was only centralized at the end of the year, the land income in Langya urban area in 2020 exceeded 40 billion, which was 26 times! In Beicheng New District, the land income in 2020 is 38 times! 
Beicheng New District, Luozhuang, these once unwanted, "high-quality land" like a "pie" falling from the sky, hit the predators who have been hungry for many years and coveted and greedy!
In the second half of 2021, with the transformation and listing of centralized land supply in the second half of 2020, the market competition is gradually becoming white-hot, and the sudden cold sales also makes a number of developers at a loss. 
From Evergrande's shutdown to Zhongnan's price cut, from apartment loft commercial halving to residential drop! The panic of the developers is also spreading rapidly among the people of Langya! From the Langya star plate - Beicheng New District quickly swept the whole city, and the market was rumors and frozen rapidly for a while! Langya's home buyers disappeared overnight, the urban real estate market took a sharp turn, the inventory soared, and the de-conversion cycle soared to a historical extreme!
With the upgrading of developers' price reductions and the collapse of consumer confidence, the Langya real estate market will accelerate its downward trend in 2022, and at this freezing point in the market, on May 30, the "Beicheng New District First-hand and Second-hand Housing Restrictions" policy implemented by Langya City since 2018 was lifted, and a huge number of low-priced second-hand ** poured into the market, making the Linyi property market even worse!
The back-handed investors bravely sacrificed the flag, and the bones were cold, but the developers who were mired in the quagmire have already talked about the color change and avoided it. After the epidemic is lifted, the Langya land market is still a stage for platform companies to entertain themselves, and after the real estate market is bullish, there is endless darkness.
"Peach Blossom Spring" to "Deep Well Ice", grave digging "trilogy"? It is true that the economic downturn and epidemic control are important objective factors affecting the general downturn of the current round of the market, and the continuous role of administrative, financial and other regulatory policies cannot be ignored, but for the Langya market, which collapsed like a cliff after the "peach blossom spring" independence and has been like a "deep well ice", which is the key straw that crushes the camel? The centralized land supply in the second half of 2020 laid the groundwork for the "vicious competition" in the second half of 2021, and the self-harming malicious price reduction after the second half of 2021 is the "fuse" of this round of bear market, and the cancellation of sales restrictions in 2022 to release a huge amount of low prices** is considered a catastrophic self-digging grave. Some peers will Langya real estate summarized as "into the population, defeated by the land, collapsed in the price reduction, died in the limited transfer", as the former benchmark market, the current round of the Langya market cycle trend is worth summarizing and reviewing, which is precious to the rulers, developers, practitioners and home buyers. History has no assumptions, a variety of choices multiply more results, we have no intention of holding accountable, we would like to review the Langya market cycle from the perspective of real estate practitioners, and provide other cities with "jade stones". In the author's opinion, I welcome all kinds of celebrities to correct.
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