U.S. Biden is facing one of the toughest decisions of his tenure about whether to take military action against Iran. This is one of many options Biden received from the Pentagon after a drone attack on the U.S. military's "Tower 22" base on the Jordanian-Syrian border killed three U.S. soldiers and injured more than 40. The British newspaper Sky News reported that Biden could make a decision "on Monday night local time".
The attack was the worst ever encountered by the US military in the Middle East, and the base that was attacked was a small military facility integrating aviation, engineering, logistics, and other forces, and several hundred US military personnel were stationed there. Allegedly, the drone was launched from the territory of Iran, targeting the command center and ammunition depot of the base. There are already people in the US Congress who have called for Biden to retaliate against Iran, and some have even suggested a direct attack on Iran's own nuclear facilities. Biden's political opponent Trump also took the opportunity to mock Biden for his weakness and incompetence, calling him a "coward".
But does Biden really want to go to war with Iran? This is not a simple question, because Iran is not an easy adversary to deal with. Iran is a country with a land area of more than 1.6 million square kilometers, half of which is plateau and mountainous, and there are also a large number of desert basins, and the terrain is complex and varied, which is not conducive to the ground offensive of the US military. Biden should remember how messy the retreat of US troops in Afghanistan was, and he would not want to repeat the mistakes of the past.
So, what other options does the US military have? The most likely is an air strike, taking advantage of the US military's aviation superiority in the Middle East to deliver precision strikes on Iranian military targets. There is information that the US military has transferred 6 KC-135 tanker aircraft to the Middle East to prepare for the upcoming air strikes. The U.S. military could strike Iran's missile and drone launch sites, naval ports and ships, Revolutionary Guard strongholds, and even Iranian nuclear facilities, all of which Israel has been trying to destroy.
But will the U.S. airstrikes work? Iran is not without the ability to fight back, Iran has a huge missile force, by building underground "missile cities" to hide and protect, once the US military attacks, Iran will launch a large number of missiles to counterattack the US military bases in the Middle East and Israel. Iran also has a strong local armed force, which is located in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and other countries, posing a threat to the US military and its allies. Iran also has an elite army that is ready to face the U.S. military, and Iranian generals warn that they are not afraid of an invasion by the U.S. military, and that they will use the terrain advantage and national spirit to defeat the U.S. military.
Iran has always denied any responsibility for the attack on the US military base, saying that it was a spontaneous act of regional forces and had nothing to do with Iran. Iran means that there is no point in the US military fighting Iran, it will only intensify the conflict in the region and make the pro-Iranian forces even more crazy. Iran also called on the United States to return to the 2015 JCPOA, end sanctions against Iran, and resume dialogue and cooperation.
In the face of such Iran, will Biden give the order to go to war? It was a very difficult decision because once the war started, it was very difficult to end. Biden has to consider not only the situation in the Middle East, but also the politics and public opinion of the United States. If he doesn't fight, he will be considered weak and incompetent, and if he does, he will be considered reckless and risky, and he may lose support in the ** of 2024. Sky News commented that Biden's situation was "damned". He may choose a compromise option that would be a limited punitive strike against Iran rather than a full-scale war. But no one can guarantee whether such a blow will achieve its goal or trigger a greater crisis. At present, the whole world is watching the movements in the Middle East, fearing that the retaliation of the United States will cause a fire in the Middle East.