Narrative (maximum 18 words.)
3a perspective
The short-term liquidity risk (SI index) and short-term default risk (PD index) of the automotive industry are higher than the average risk level of all listed companies. The growth of SI risk in the automotive industry is accelerating relative to the market average.
From 2018 to 2022, the risk growth of the automotive service industry is obvious, mainly dragged down by auto dealers; Since 2022, a number of negative factors affecting the passenger car market have gradually begun to improve marginally, and the passenger car sector is entering a new recovery cycle.
Self-owned brands are expected to be the biggest beneficiaries of the rise in demand for medium and large displacement motorcycles. It is recommended to pay attention to Chunfeng Power (603129SH), Loncin General (603766SH) and Qianjiang Motorcycle (000913sz）。
Report Description:
This is a blockbuster! The sub-industry research officially released by the 2023 listed enterprise risk list of Shanganxin, please refer to the document for the full list.
The short-term risk of the industry is higher than the market average and is accelerating
According to 3A data, the short-term liquidity risk (SI index) of the automotive industry in 2022 is 240, ranking 24th among 31 industries (risk from low to high); The short-term default risk (PD index) is 1627%, ranking 23rd out of 31 industries (low risk to high). On the whole, the short-term liquidity risk and default risk of the automotive industry are in the top 10 of the industry black list (for the full list, see the "2023 List of Listed Enterprises Shenwan Industry Classification"), which is at a high risk level among the 31 industries.
*: Shang Anxin, 3A Credit Research Institute.
3A data shows that in the five years from 2018 to 2022, the short-term liquidity risk (SI index) and short-term default probability (PD index) of the automotive industry were higher than the average risk level of all listed companies. We find that the gap between the short-term liquidity risk (SI index) of the automotive industry and the average risk of all listed companies is increasing year by year. This means,The automotive industry's SI risk is accelerating relative to the market average.
Similarly, from the perspective of industry risk growth, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of the SI index and PD index of the automotive industry in 2018 and 2022 are respectively. 18%；Ranked 20th and 19th out of 31 industries (risk decline from fast to slow). This also shows that the automotive industry is one of the 31 industries with the fastest growth in risk.
*: Shang Anxin, 3A Credit Research Institute.
The industry is differentiated, and the passenger car sector has entered a new cycle
The automotive industry is divided into 5 sub-industries, namely auto parts, auto services, motorcycles and others, passenger cars and commercial vehicles.
From the perspective of the automotive industry, the short-term liquidity risk (SI) trend of auto parts is basically consistent with the changes in the automotive industry, and the remaining four secondary industries show a divergent trend, especially in 2022. Among them, the short-term liquidity risk (SI) of automotive services and commercial vehicles increased from 2018 to 2022, with the automotive services industry rising most significantly, with a five-year compound growth rate (CAGR) of 273%。From the chart below, it is not difficult to find that the SI risk index of the automotive service industry is increasing year by year and gradually approaching the average risk level of the industry.
*: Shang Anxin, 3A Credit Research Institute.
The growth of risk in the automotive service industry was mainly dragged down by car dealers. The auto service industry mainly covers the two ** industries of auto dealers and auto comprehensive services, and 7 of the 11 auto service companies belong to auto dealers, and the SI risk index of auto dealers has an average annual growth rate of 350%。
3A Credit Institute believes thatOn the one hand, in 2018, due to the withdrawal of purchase tax incentives, the Sino-US war and the decline in consumer confidence, the automobile market fell into a cold winter (according to the data of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, passenger car sales have experienced two consecutive years of decline since 2018, with a cumulative decline of -14 from 2018 to 202090%, which did not gradually recover until 2021), most dealers are stuck in the dilemma of overstocking and bear huge costs; On the other hand, the rise of the new auto brand direct sales and first-class model has also posed a challenge to the status of traditional dealers. In addition, between 2020 and 2022, the severe impact of the pandemic also hit offline store operations hard, causing the short-term liquidity risk (SI index) and short-term default risk (PD index) of auto dealers to gradually increase.
On the other hand, the short-term liquidity risk (SI) of passenger cars and motorcycles and the other two industries showed a downward trend overall. In particular, the passenger car industry managed to recover the risk index below the 2018 level in just two years after the 2020 SI risk index**.
3A Credit Institute believes thatSince 2022, a number of negative factors affecting the passenger car market have gradually begun to improve marginally; In terms of cost, aluminum** has dropped significantly, international sea freight** has begun to decline, and the depreciation of the RMB is good for export enterprises (data from the China Automobile Association shows that China's automobile exports will exceed 2 million for the first time in 2022, reaching 311.).10,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 544% to achieve a breakthrough by leaps and bounds). On the supply side, with the gradual improvement of the epidemic situation in Shanghai and the gradual recovery of the industrial chain, the passenger car sector is entering a new recovery cycle. In addition, with the pace of intelligent and automated new energy vehicles, independent brands have gained a firm foothold in the mid-to-high-end market through leading technologies such as smart cockpit, automatic assisted driving, and three-electric systems, and have won a lot of market share of high-end cars and luxury cars belonging to traditional joint venture brands, which is of great benefit to boost brand image, increase corporate profit margins, and maintain good cash flow of enterprises.
*: China *** Association, Shang Anxin, 3A Credit Research Institute.
Medium and large displacement motorcycles and new energy commercial vehicles are worth paying attention to
3A data shows that among the 255 listed companies in the automotive industry, none of them have entered the top 50 of the "2022 Listed Enterprises Short-term Liquidity Risk List" (Red List) (for the full list, see the "2023 List of Listed Enterprises Shenwan Industry Classification"). Among the listed companies in the automotive industry, the advertised shares (301181SZ), Jiuqi shares (300994SZ) and Xinpeng (002328SZ) is in the top 3 of the "Short-term Liquidity Risk List (Red List) in the Industry".
It is worth noting that among the top 10 companies on the red list of the SI risk index, Chunfeng Power (603129SH), Loncin General (603766SH) and Qianjiang Motorcycle (000913SZ) belong to the motorcycle sector, among which Loncin GM (603766SH) and Qianjiang Motorcycle (000913SZ) has declined by more than 8% per year on average from 2018 to 2022, ranking 2nd and 8th in the automotive sector (risk decline from fast to slow). 3A Credit Institute believes thatThe leisure and entertainment culture of China's motorcycle market has gradually formed, and consumers' demand for motorcycles has gradually transitioned from tool attributes to leisure and entertainment attributes, and the demand for large-displacement motorcycles based on leisure and entertainment has expanded rapidly, and independent brands are expected to become the biggest beneficiaries of the rise of medium and large-displacement motorcycle demand. It is recommended to pay attention to Chunfeng Power (603129SH), Loncin General (603766SH) and Qianjiang Motorcycle (000913sz）。
*: Shang Anxin, 3A Credit Research Institute.
On the other hand, among the 10 blacklisted companies with the highest short-term liquidity risk in the automotive industry (see the table below), 3 companies have entered the top 50 of the "2022 Short-term Liquidity Risk List of Listed Companies" (blacklist) (for the full list, see the "2023 List of Listed Enterprises Shenwan Industry Classification"), which are *ST Yuebo (300742).SZ), Hanma Technology (600375SH) and Ankai Bus (000868sz）。Among them, *st Yuebo (300742.)SZ) has a high SI risk index of 387 in 2022, ranking third highest among 5,022 listed companies in short- and medium-term liquidity risk (risk from high to low). It is worth noting that two of these three companies belong to the secondary industry classification of commercial vehicles.
3A Credit Institute believes thatThe commercial vehicle market is mainly affected by the national economy and the replacement of vehicles. After the epidemic in 2020, the national infrastructure investment and resumption of work policies have promoted the increase in demand for commercial vehicles, and at the same time, the China VIA standard has promoted the peak of China III vehicle scrapping, prompting the replacement phenomenon in the commercial vehicle market. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, commercial vehicle sales reached a record high in 2020, with a year-on-year increase of 187%，However, 3A believes that this growth is based on the overdraft growth of old car elimination and overload management, which is difficult to sustain. In July 2021, the switch of the national standard was completed, and the elimination of national three vehicles came to an end, due to demand overdraft and repeated epidemics, the sales of commercial vehicles in 2021 and 2022 declined for two consecutive years, and the decline rate in 2022 reached -3115%, and sales bottomed out to 3.3 million units. However, on the contrary, the sales of new energy commercial vehicles (electric light trucks, electric heavy trucks, etc.) have bucked the trend, and the sales of new energy commercial vehicles in 2022 will be 23750,000 vehicles, a year-on-year growth rate of 896%；Although and new energy vehicles 688The total sales of 70,000 units are still insignificant.
*: Shang Anxin, 3A Credit Research Institute.
It is foreseeable that in the future, the commercial vehicle industry will also follow the passenger car industry into the development track of electrification, intelligence and automation, and companies with advantages in these fields may be able to stand out from the fierce competition.
About us
Founded on July 25, 2018, 3A Credit Research Institute is affiliated to Shanganxin Group, and its core team includes experts in various professional fields such as credit scoring and big data. Relying on its core competitiveness in the analysis and evaluation of enterprise information data, 3A Credit Research Institute focuses on the research and development of a commercial credit scoring system suitable for the Chinese market according to the characteristics of the Chinese market.