Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Masudi recently visited the Philippines and spoke at a joint press conference with Philippine Foreign Minister Manalo. According to Reuters, Retno said Indonesia is willing to work with all ASEAN members, including the Philippines, to advance the development of a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea. ABS-CBN News reported that the foreign ministers of the two countries also said that the Philippines and Indonesia will strengthen bilateral cooperation to jointly deal with issues such as the South China Sea.
Foreign Minister of Indonesia and Foreign Minister of the Philippines).
The timing and location of the visit are sensitive, as just a few days ago, the Philippines conducted its second joint patrol with the U.S. military in the South China Sea. In front of the Philippine counterpart, the Indonesian foreign minister publicly expressed his willingness to promote the "Code of Conduct in the South China Sea", which is undoubtedly a warning to the Philippines on the South China Sea issue. This also reflects ASEAN's dissatisfaction with the Philippines' continued collusion with external forces to undermine stability in the South China Sea.
Data map: ASEAN Summit).
There are many reasons why the Philippines is in such an embarrassing situation.
First, the Filipinos found that the Americans didn't really mean to help them.
On January 3 and 4, the Philippine military and the U.S. military conducted a second joint patrol in the South China Sea, and the PLA Southern Theater also sent troops to patrol the relevant waters. However, to the disappointment of the Filipinos, the US military only sent one destroyer, the USS Spruit, and kept a certain distance from the Philippine ship, and the aircraft carrier "Carl Vinson," which had originally announced that it would participate in the operation, did not appear at all.
According to Philippine media, Vice Admiral Carlos, commander of the Western Philippine Command, was supposed to board the aircraft carrier to observe the take-off and landing of carrier-based aircraft, but the US side redeployed some troops on the grounds of "certain operational needs." As it turned out, the Carl Vinson stayed in the undisputed waters southwest of Luzon for only a few days before heading directly to the port of Manila.
Some believe that this is because the US military was intimidated by the actions of the PLA in the southern theater; It is also reported that the PLA warships arrived in the waters of the US-Philippine exercise ahead of schedule, forcing the US to avoid the edge of our army; Others say that the Americans deliberately stopped so as not to further annoy China.
Whatever the reason, the performance of the US military has left Filipinos disappointed and uneasy.
Carl Vinson" aircraft carrier).
Secondly, there are also different voices in the Philippines, some for **, some against**. Therefore, there are also people in the Philippines who oppose the Philippine side's current move to closely follow the United States. Under the influence of these people, it is understandable that the Philippines wants to work with ASEAN to de-escalate the situation in the South China Sea.
Anti-American demonstrations by Filipino people).
Third, ASEAN, especially Indonesia's Jokowi, is also dissatisfied with the Philippines' current attitude towards making trouble in the South China Sea.
In 2022, Marcos visited Indonesia shortly after taking office, and Jokowi said at that time that Indonesia, as one of the founding members of ASEAN, hoped that ASEAN could become "the locomotive of regional peace, stability and prosperity". But now that the Philippines, with the support of the United States, is provoking China in the South China Sea, the position of the "locomotive" is in jeopardy, and Jokowi also wants to bring the situation in the South China Sea back to normal at the end of his term.
Marcos meets with Jokowi).
On December 30 last year, ASEAN foreign ministers issued a "Statement on Maintaining and Promoting Stability in Southeast Asian Maritime Areas", reiterating the importance of peaceful settlement of disputes, maintaining regional peace and stability, dialogue and cooperation, and also saying that they would "pay close attention to recent developments in the South China Sea that may undermine peace, security and stability in the region".
On January 9 this year, Jokowi also launched an official visit to the Philippines, with which he is expected to discuss the South China Sea issue. I don't know if Marcos will be able to accept Jokowi's suggestion this time.
Jokowi spoke)
Of course, the process of promoting the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea has not been smooth sailing. This framework has been discussed since 2002, and over the years, despite the commitment of all parties to accelerate and advance the process, no substantial progress has been made due to the divergent interests of the parties.
In addition, Indonesia*** will be held on February 14, and Jokowi can no longer run for election. It is unclear whether the next Indonesian ** will continue Jokowi's line and maintain the independence of Indonesia and ASEAN, or will be co-opted and bought by the United States. It is uncertain whether the Philippines' attitude towards the South China Sea dialogue will change. But in any case, if the South China Sea dispute can be resolved through dialogue, it will be a good thing for the entire Asia-Pacific region.