On February 20, IDC released the latest report showing that the shipments of China's folding screen mobile phone market in 2023 will be about 70070,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 1145%。This is the fourth consecutive year that China's folding screen mobile phone market has grown by more than 100% year-on-year since the first product was launched in 2019.
It is worth noting that the ** of folding screen phones is still going down. IDC data shows that in 2023, the share of folding screen phones above $1,000 has increased from 81 a year ago0% down to 665%, down 145 percentage points.
This is not the first time that folding screen mobile phones have dropped in recent years. As early as 2021, some leading manufacturers will take the initiative to promote new folding screen products** to less than 10,000 yuan, or even less than 8,000 yuan. At that time, while launching more mainstream high-end product prices, manufacturers also adopted a relatively conservative supply strategy for a number of new products, which also made the market in a state of short supply, resulting in a high level of attention from potential buyers of folding screen mobile phones.
The folding screen mobile phone, which has always been positioned as a high-end mobile phone, has continued to decline year after year, is it expected to take the cost-effective route in the future? **Behind the continuous downward exploration, it is necessary to take into account performance and thinness, what is the price reduction space of folding screen mobile phones in the future? Nandu Bay Finance Society interviewed a number of industry analysts.
More people try it? Foldable phones**AgainDownThe best folding screen products have always been the focus of market attention. After several years of development, the positioning of high-end folding screen mobile phones** is still declining.
Behind the perspective price reduction, IDC believes that in addition to the decline in the overall cost, the price of products in the vertical folding form is relatively lower, which also makes the price of folding screens in 2023 drop to $400-600. This also means that folding screen mobile phones are gradually shifting from the "high-end machine" of 10,000 yuan that was positioned in the past to a wider range of consumer groups.
However, some analysts believe that although the ** continues to decline, folding screen mobile phones are still far from the stage of pursuing cost performance. Guo Tianxiang, a senior analyst at IDC China, told a reporter from Nandu Bay Finance Society that at present, most folding screen products are positioned as high-end products, which is an important layout for Android manufacturers to impact the high-end. "Now the cheapest folding screen products are also more than 3,000 yuan, and the configuration is far inferior to the price of the straight board machine. Moreover, the cost of folding screens is still high, and it is still far from the stage of pursuing cost performance. ”
In addition to the decline in sales, folding screen mobile phones are also attracting consumers by reducing prices after they are launched. The reporter of Nandu Bay Finance Society combed through the folding screen mobile phones that will be launched in the second half of 2023 and saw that many products have reduced prices or discounts after being listed for a period of time**.
Take the OPPO Find N3, which will go on sale on October 30, 2023, as an example, its two configurations of 12GB+512GB and 16GB+1TB, the prices start at 9999 yuan and 12999 yuan respectively when they are listed. At present, in e-commerce platforms and other channels, ** has dropped to 7999 yuan and 9999 yuan. In addition to OPPO, folding screen products of brands such as Honor, vivo, and Xiaomi also have different degrees of price reductions.
On an e-commerce platform, OPPO Find N3 reduced its price.
In addition to the first downturn, Huawei's market performance after its return has also become a hot spot. According to the IDC data, Huawei occupies the first position in the domestic folding screen market in 2023, with a market share of 374%。In addition, OPPO gets 183% market share, ranking second in the overall folding screen market; Honor won the third place in the folding screen mobile phone market for the whole year, with a share of 177%, and the year-on-year increase in shipments was as high as 4670%, the fastest growth rate.
It is worth noting that in 2024, the sales of folding screen phones are expected to continue to grow. On February 20, according to Cinno Research, it is estimated that in 2024, the sales of folding screen smartphones in the Chinese market will reach 9.6 million units, a year-on-year increase of 41%. At the same time, in 2023, the use area of domestic folding screen smartphone UTG will increase by 250 year-on-year7%, and it is expected to continue to grow by more than 70% year-on-year in 2024.
**Continued downward spiral:Taking into account performance and thinness, what is the room for price reduction in the future?While reducing prices, it is necessary to take into account performance and thinness, which is behind the trade-offs of mobile phone manufacturers for folding screen mobile phones.
Bai Shenghao, a senior analyst at Counterpoint Research, analyzed to a reporter from Nandu Bay Finance Society that at present, manufacturers are mainly focusing on two aspects when manufacturing folding screen mobile phones: imaging capabilities and wireless charging. At the image level, in order to pursue a thin and compact body, manufacturers will streamline the hardware configuration of the camera. "After all, the configuration of larger image sensors and higher-end lens modules will increase the thickness and weight while improving the image capability. Although the current computing technology has significantly improved the image effect, it still cannot make up for the disadvantages at the hardware level. ”
In addition to the image, in terms of screen, Chen Ziwei, a senior analyst of the mobile division of Qunzhi Consulting, told the reporter of Nandu Bay Finance Society that the high cost of folding screen mobile phones mainly comes from the high cost, and the increase in cost is mainly reflected in the relatively low yield of cover materials and products. As a result, the cost of the screen can be reduced to a lesser extent.
In view of the future of folding screen mobile phones, many analysts believe that there is still room for price reduction in the future, but due to the high cost and the need to maintain the "high-end" positioning of folding screen mobile phones, the price reduction will not be too large.
Guo Tianxiang believes that with the maturity of technology and the improvement of yield rate, the cost of folding screen will continue to decline, and it will continue to decline. If the ** is down, under the premise of undiminished configuration, it is conducive to the popularization of folding screen mobile phones. "If the price is reduced in the future and the configuration is castrated, the high-end crowd will still choose more expensive products with full configuration. The low-end consumers are more sensitive to the first, and they will pay more attention to the product configuration, although the castrated folding screen product is cheaper, but the use experience is definitely not as good as the price of the straight machine, then consumers may choose the straight machine. ”
Chen Ziwei believes that due to the fact that the current smartphone market is in a relatively mature period and the terminal demand is sluggish, brand manufacturers hope to maintain the high-end positioning of folding products, and will actually take the initiative to slow down the speed of folding mobile phones. In addition, some hardware ** is still dominated by foreign countries, the localization process is slow, and the cost of the whole machine is still difficult to reduce significantly in the short term.
Liu Yixuan, an analyst at Canalys, also told a reporter from Nandu Bay Finance Society that some manufacturers don't want to set the ** too low, mainly because they are afraid of competing with their flagship straight board machines; Some are because the folding machine is positioned as a high-end product, and it needs to be differentiated. "On the whole, the profit of the folding machine is not very high, because the hardware cost itself is very high. "Therefore, the price reduction in the future will not be too large.
Written by: Yan Zhaoxin, reporter of Nandu Bay Finance Agency