In the face of increasingly tense tensions in the Middle East and great variables in US-Iranian relations, the Iranian side has begun to take the initiative to respond to the situation and actively cooperate with major powers, and military exercises have been put on the agenda. According to the Global Times on February 7, Iranian Navy Commander Shahram Ilani said that Iran, Russia and China will hold a joint naval exercise. The news has attracted great attention from the outside world, for this exercise, some Western ** will be related to the situation in the Middle East interpretation, "Washington Times" and other Western ** believe that Iran's move is in response to the United States attack on pro-Iranian forces, that the joint exercise of the three countries shows "the current support of China and Russia for Iran". But in fact, from the perspective of Iran's long-term strategy, this is not necessarily the reason.
This is not the first time that China, Russia and Iran have conducted military exercises.
In fact, for this three-country joint maritime exercise, Iranian Navy Commander Irani has said as early as the 5th that the exercise will be held before the end of March, called "Security Bond-2023", and other countries will be invited to participate in the exercise. But then Iran ** reported more details, pointing out that the exercise time is from March 15 to 19, the participating countries are Iran, Russia and China, the specific location of the exercise is in the Gulf of Oman, considering that the exercise site is extraordinary, it happens to be the outlet of the Middle East oil shipping route, which is easy to cause concern to the outside world, and the Iranian side particularly emphasized that the purpose of the exercise is to protect the interests and economic resources of Iran and its neighbors and countries in the Middle East. This statement implies that the exercise is aimed at the security interests of Iran and its neighbors, and reflects Iran's basic starting point of putting national interests first. On the other hand, it is for the safety of the entire Middle East oil shipping lanes, which shows that Iran's move is not entirely selfish, but for the sake of the entire Middle East region.
However, Iran's claims do not seem to have received much acceptance from the outside world, especially in the West, which believes that Iran's invitation to China and Russia to hold maritime exercises at this time is related to the actions of the United States in the relevant region. The Washington Times reported that since the United States launched a strike against the Houthis in Yemen, Iran has announced that it will hold joint naval exercises with China and Russia. The reason is that Iran is the backer of the Houthis and the first country of the Houthis. In this regard, after launching air strikes against the Houthis, Biden has also publicly stated Iran's long-term support for these armed groups.
Obviously, in the eyes of the West, Iran is holding exercises at this time to demonstrate Iran's determination that Iran will not back down and unite all forces that can be united in response to a series of US military actions in the waters around Iran. The Times of India published a message pointing out that Iran, Russia and China are preparing to carry out a "formidable" joint maritime exercise, and it is speculated that the scale of the exercise will not be small, and it is also worried that Iran's move means that a new united front has emerged in West Asia.
The Gulf of Oman is strategically located.
The concerns of the West and India are not entirely groundless, and if you look at the location of the exercise, the Gulf of Oman, the location can be said to be quite delicate. The Gulf of Oman is located in the northwest of the Arabian Sea, the west of the bay is the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf, the east is the wide Arabian Sea, both sides of the bay are important oil exporters in the world, the bay is not far from the Gwadar port in Pakistan, the port is an important transit point for China's imports of Middle Eastern oil, if there is a problem with maritime transportation, the oil can go straight to the Gwadar port after passing through the Gulf of Oman, and the unloading enters China by land transportation. Therefore, the Gulf of Oman is not at all simple, it is not only about the income of all the oil exporting countries in the Middle East, but also about the cooperation of these exporters and major countries. Historically, there have been many major wars, most notably the Ottoman Turks' war with Portugal in the mid-15th century, when Portugal's ambitious fleets clashed with the expanding Ottoman Turks in the global oceans. At that time, Ottoman Turkey was the largest power in the Middle East.
Iran is quite powerful.
It is precisely because there have been so many historical events in the sea that there are concerns that Iran's military exercises will quickly escalate tensions in the Middle East. In fact, this kind of concern is both necessary and needless to worry too much, because this is not the first exercise between Iran, Russia, and China. As early as 2019 and 2022, the three countries have held three "Security Bond" military exercises, and if the exercise goes smoothly, it will be the fourth joint maritime exercise among the three countries. It can be seen from this that the exercise is only a routine military exchange between countries across the region, and does not have other targeted significance in a specific period.
If the regular joint maritime exercises between the three countries have "other intentions", then the recent large-scale military exercises organized by NATO countries are undoubtedly a dangerous act to undermine regional stability. Since January 24, the United States has led the other 30 NATO member states, as well as Sweden, which is in the process of applying for NATO, to send a total of 90,000 troops, more than 1,100 tanks and armored vehicles, and more than 50 weapons from 32 countries to carry out a large-scale military joint exercise. The direction of the exercise was very clear, and the location of the exercise was Poland, Romania and the three Baltic countries, all of which are countries bordering Russia. However, the West claims that "the exercise is not aimed at any side and is a routine NATO military exercise," but in fact, NATO's military exercise focuses on training the troops' offensive and coordinated combat capabilities, and has a strong offensive flavor.
Iran-led trilateral maritime exercises are clearly geared towards maintaining regional stability and securing global oil shipping lanes, with very different objectives. Therefore, for the current global situation, no matter how the West defines the exercise, the key to whether the situation in the Middle East will further deteriorate is not actually the countries in the region, but the armed intervention of countries outside the region such as the United States and the United Kingdom. The more these countries intervene militarily, the more likely it will be that multiple powder kegs in the Middle East will be ignited.
Judging from the danger of the multiple powder kegs in the Middle East at the moment, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has gradually stabilized, and the countries of the Arab world have shown with their actions that they have no intention of intervening in this military conflict, which is destined to be a contest between the Israeli army and the Hamas forces. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has made clear his opposition to Israel's goal of "completely eliminating Hamas," and the United States prefers to see Israeli troops withdraw from Gaza and not do anything to try to change the status quo in Gaza. For this reason, the United States has begun to publicly sanction specific individuals and entities in Israel, although Israel is still tough at this time, it is unlikely that they will really choose to tear up their faces with the United States, after all, judging from the current global situation, it is almost impossible for Israel to find a second ally who is really willing to help them for a long time in addition to the United States. Therefore, on the whole, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is expected to gradually cool down in the coming months, but the US-Iran relationship is the opposite, and contradictions may heat up or even war at any time.
The Palestinian-Israeli conflict continues.
In the early hours of the previous day, the US military suddenly dispatched a number of warplanes and military drones to launch air strikes on Iranian targets in Iraq and Syria. Some of the planes on which the US military carried out the mission took off directly from the US mainland, hinting at the importance that the Pentagon takes on this matter. With this move, the United States tried to remind Iran that if the United States wanted to attack Iran, it did not necessarily have to use American military forces in the Middle East, and that even the United States mainland, thousands of kilometers away, could project firepower "anywhere,including Tehran," in a matter of hours.
After the end of the airstrike, the U.S. ** Command issued a statement, saying that the airstrike successfully hit as many as 85 targets, which are "Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps 'Quds Force' and its affiliated armed groups", which is significantly different from the last time Biden talked about the attack on the US military base, last time Biden only affirmed that the United States would take action, but did not mention any details, only named Iran for these organizations to provide **, that is, "Iran supported these forces", But there is no mention of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. This time, the US side directly named the "Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran," which is a signal of the obvious toughness of the US attitude. You must know that this force is the core strength of the Iranian army, and most of its strength is located in Iran. The United States seems to be revealing that if "Iran does not stop", the United States may directly attack this stalwart of Iran's armed forces.
Regarding this large-scale air strike, Biden said that the U.S. response will begin here, and the U.S. will choose more time and place to continue the operation. Iraq and Syria condemned the U.S. airstrikes, calling them "acts of aggression." Iran*** said that the US air strikes were a strategic mistake and that nothing good would come of it except to make the region more and more dangerous. In fact, for this round of air strikes by the United States, from Biden's point of view, it is more of a "show".
U.S. military bases have been attacked frequently.
Because since the attack on the US military base, Republicans represented by Trump have accused Biden of being weak on the Iran issue, which led to the complete failure of US diplomacy in the Middle East. In the past half a month, Trump has won consecutive victories in the primary elections in many states in the United States, and his approval rating has continued to rise, which has undoubtedly exerted tremendous pressure on Biden. For this Biden must act, but he must also control the impact of his actions. As stated by the White House, the United States has no intention of seeking war, but will take "multi-layered actions" to respond "firmly" to any violation of US military bases.
But even so, Republican House Speaker Johnson still believes that Biden's decision is not tough enough and should have been "long ago", and he believes that Biden delayed the action by a week, showing the outside world "the weakness of the United States". Republican Senator Roger Wick is even more brainy, saying that Biden launched the operation against Iran after a week, which undoubtedly gives the other side enough time to transfer the most valuable military assets and personnel in advance, and this air strike will not have a good effect.
U.S. ** Biden.
In fact, for Biden, the reason why the United States delayed the launch of the operation by a week is mainly to avoid the rapid response of the US military that will cause the situation to heat up too quickly and cause misjudgment by neighboring countries in the region, which is also an important step for Biden to achieve "no war". But this is already a dangerous signal for Iran, which supports more than 50 different armed groups in the Middle East, and these groups are also key to Iran's strategic influence, and Iran cannot sit idly by and let the United States cut its wings. Although the routine trilateral exercise held in March was just an ordinary military exchange, it released Iran's basic stance of actively responding to the outside world, and Iran's specific actions in the Middle East will be the focus of attention from the outside world.