**: CBN.
Market institutions** new loans in January averaged about 47 trillion yuan, actual RMB loans 492 trillion yuan, exceeding market expectations.
January's financial data was better than market expectations, and a package of policy measures to stabilize growth has begun to show results.
On February 9, the central bank released financial data for January, showing that RMB loans increased by 4 in January92 trillion yuan, an increase of 16.2 billion yuan year-on-year; The increase in social financing in January was 65 trillion yuan, an increase of 506.1 billion yuan year-on-year; The year-on-year growth rate of social finance was 95%, unchanged from the December reading and slightly higher than market expectations. Under the influence of the Spring Festival, M2 declined significantly year-on-year.
According to Yicai, the latest financial data mainly presents the following key points:
As one of the aggregate indicators reflecting financial support for the real economy, the scale of social financing continued to increase year-on-year. At the end of January, the stock of social financing was 38429 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 95%, the growth rate was the same as the previous month. The January increment was 650 trillion yuan, the highest level in the same period in history, 506.1 billion yuan more than the same period last year. M2 growth is in line with economic growth and ** level expectations. At the end of January, the balance of broad money (M2) was 29763 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 87%, in the context of last year's high base, maintained a reasonable growth rate. Loans maintained a steady growth momentum. At the end of January, the balance of RMB loans was 24250 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 104%。4. New loans in January92 trillion yuan, 16.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year. The first financial reporter interviewed authoritative experts in the industry and learned that on the basis of the high base in the same period last year, social finance continued to maintain a year-on-year increase, indicating that the financial system to provide financial support for the real economy remains at a high level. On the basis of the high base in the same period of the previous year, loans maintained a year-on-year increase, indicating that the financial support for the real economy in the balance sheet of banks is relatively stable.
CITIC ** Chief Economist Ming Ming said that the current foundation for economic recovery is still not solid, fiscal policy and monetary policy should be coordinated and linked, and monetary policy does not have the premise of tightening in the short term, and the central bank still needs to maintain reasonable and ample liquidity.
Reasonable view of M2 growth rate fluctuations.
At the end of January, the balance of broad money (M2) was 29763 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 87%。The balance of narrow money (m1) is 6942 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59%。
Compared with the data at the end of December last year, there is a large fluctuation. At the end of December 2023, the balance of broad money (m2) was 29227 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 97%。The balance of narrow money (m1) is 6805 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13%。
The above-mentioned authoritative experts in the industry told Yicai that the fluctuation of M2 growth rate in January should be viewed reasonably.
He believes that the growth rate of M2 in the month fell back, which was affected by a variety of factors, and on the whole, the characteristics of periodic disturbances were more obvious.
From the perspective of short-term disturbance factors, fiscal expenditure will generally peak before the Spring Festival, and the increase in fiscal expenditure will lead to the acceleration of M2 growth. Last year's Spring Festival was in January, and this year's Spring Festival is in February, and fiscal expenditure is dislocated from January to February, which will cause the growth rate of M2 to decline in January and rebound in February. Historical data shows that there was a similar Spring Festival dislocation in 2021, and the growth rate of M2 fell by 07 percentage points to 94%, and in February 2021 it rebounded to 101%。It is generally estimated that the impact of fiscal factors on the M2 pull-down in January this year is also 0About 7 percentage points.
From the perspective of long-term trends, since the epidemic, monetary policy has increased counter-cyclical adjustment, financial data is generally ahead of economic data, and M2 growth also reached a high of nearly 13% in February last year, which is significantly higher than the nominal GDP growth rate.
Authoritative experts believe that as the economy continues to recover, the growth rate of M2 will decline steadily, and the gap between economic and financial growth will gradually converge.
From the perspective of financial support for high-quality economic development, the reduction of capital idling and arbitrage in the financial system, and the increase in the purchase of bonds by enterprises and residents to promote the development of direct financing will also have some benign substitutions for loans, and correspondingly reduce the growth rate of M2.
*The Economic Work Conference proposed that in 2024, it is necessary to adhere to the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, promote stability through progress, and continuously consolidate the foundation for stability and improvement.
Since the beginning of the year, monetary policy has been frequently moved, with a 05 percentage points, providing long-term liquidity to the market of more than 1 trillion yuan, and lowering the relending and rediscount interest rate by 025 percentage points, the introduction of improve the relevant policies for operating property loans, support high-quality real estate enterprises to revitalize stock assets, and cooperate with the city to adjust the lower limit of the mortgage interest rate policy according to the city's policies. Various policies have created a suitable monetary and financial environment for the economy to get off to a good start, and have also boosted confidence among all parties.
At present, the growth rate of social financing, M2 and credit is still significantly higher than the growth rate of the nominal economy, and the financial support for the real economy is sufficient. The above-mentioned industry experts said.
Authoritative experts further pointed out that it is necessary to reduce excessive attention to monthly high-frequency monetary and credit data. In the short term, high-frequency data is often affected by various seasonal disturbance factors, and the Spring Festival is the biggest disturbance factor. At present, many statistics will be released in January and February due to the Spring Festival, and the overall financial data should also be observed in January and February. In the medium and long term, China's economic structural transformation is having a profound impact on credit growth and credit structure, and the debt-driven economic growth model of real estate and local financing platforms is difficult to sustain.
Loans were better than market expectations.
Loan growth remained flat in January, with better-than-market expectations. Previously, the average new loans of market institutions in January was about 47 trillion yuan, the actual loan data exceeded market expectations.
According to the data, loan support was strong in January, with RMB loans increasing by 492 trillion yuan, an increase of 16.2 billion yuan year-on-year, roughly the same as the previous year.
By sector, household loans increased by 980.1 billion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 352.8 billion yuan and medium and long-term loans increased by 627.2 billion yuan; Loans to enterprises (institutions) increased by 386 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 146 trillion yuan, medium and long-term loans increased by 331 trillion yuan.
Enterprises have made arrangements for investment and production in advance, financing demand has risen steadily, and the real economy has continued to recover. The growth rate of household loans has also accelerated, indicating that household consumption demand is picking up under the efforts of policy measures to boost consumption. Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of Zhaolian Financial, told CBN.
Another market analyst told Yicai that since the beginning of the year, the prudent monetary policy has been flexible, moderate, precise and effective, effectively boosting market confidence, superimposed on the previous stock of macro policy effects continue to appear, the economy continues to recover to a positive trend, and the corporate sector has a strong demand for credit at the beginning of the year. In addition, since 2023, real estate credit policies have been continuously optimized through measures such as reducing the interest rate on existing housing loans and meeting the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises under different ownership systems without discrimination, and real estate-related loans have also shown signs of stabilization.
Steady loan growth helped the economy get off to a good start to the year. Market experts generally believe that GDP growth in 2024 is expected to further converge with the potential economic growth rate, a significant rebound from the average growth level of 4% in the past two years, but problems such as insufficient effective demand, overcapacity in some industries and weak social expectations still exist in the short term.
The above-mentioned market analysts believe that it is important to stabilize the start of the economy in the new year to continue to pick up and improve. Loan growth in January was higher than market expectations, reflecting the strengthening of the vitality of the real economy, and the advance deployment of investment and production by enterprises, helping to achieve a good start to the economy. Better financial data can also continue to boost confidence and improve social expectations.
In addition, the steady growth of loans also reflects the requirement of a stable credit rhythm.
Recently, the central bank has repeatedly stressed the need to maintain the steady supply of money and credit. Pan Gongsheng, governor of the central bank, previously said that in 2024, it is necessary to maintain a moderate and stable pace of total credit.
Market analysts said that all walks of life have a tradition of pursuing a "good start", and commercial banks are also accustomed to putting loans to the front, and the growth of loans at the beginning of the year is often relatively fast. The new loans in January this year were basically the same as the previous year, which to a certain extent also reflects the effectiveness of financial institutions in smoothing the pace of credit disbursement.