At the beginning of January, the new capacity of the refining industry is gradually put into operation, and China's refining capacity will exceed 1 billion tons for the first time in 2024.
Judging from the auction of independent refineries in East China in the fourth quarter and the trend of changes in production, sales and inventory, the auction of large refining and chemical companies in East China fell month-on-month, and the year-on-year increase in steam and diesel fell**Processing volume and operating rate year-on-year**;Gasoline and diesel production rose year-on-year and fell month-on-month;The sales volume showed a leading trend year-on-year and month-on-month. With the increase in the market share of large refining and chemical companies in the region, although the auction is sometimes higher than that of Jiangnei**, the market attention is still strong. The following is an analysis of the auction of independent refineries**, the trend of production, sales and inventory.
Judging from the auction of East China Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd., the average price of gasoline auction in the fourth quarter of 2023 will be 8,434 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 297%；The quarterly average price of diesel was 7,496 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 847%。From a month-on-month perspective, gasoline fell by 405%；Diesel fell 3 month-on-month74%。The trend of gasoline weakened in the quarter, the weather turned colder, and the willingness of people to travel decreasedDiesel continues the trend, the cost side lacks strong support, the market mentality is cautious, the willingness to enter the market is declining, and the demand for terminal industrial and mining and infrastructure oil has entered the off-season, and the progress of inventory digestion is slow, and the pressure is falling.
From the perspective of **: In the fourth quarter of 2023, the processing volume of sample enterprises in East China was 15.86 million tons, an increase of 14%, the operating rate was **9 year-on-year29%。Among them, the processing volume of sample enterprises in East China in December was 53990,000 tons, 859%, with an average daily operating rate of 10037%, up 485%。During the month, the high-pressure steam problem of the heating company was gradually solved, and the load was increased accordinglyThe other two sample enterprises have increased their plant loads, and the comprehensive operating rate of the East China sample is **.
Combined with production analysis: the gasoline output of sample enterprises in East China in the fourth quarter was 1.49 million tons, down 194%；Diesel output was 1.96 million tons, down 7 percent from the previous month6%。The quarterly output decline was mainly due to the adjustment of the output ratio of gasoline and diesel by some sample enterprises. Among them, the gasoline output of the sample enterprises in East China in December was 47140,000 tons, an increase of 706%, i.e. 3110,000 tons, daily average **361%；The output of diesel was 670,000 tons, 13 percent month-on-month75%, i.e. 810,000 tons, an average daily increase of 1009%。During the month, the plant load of the sample enterprises **, and the output of gasoline and diesel increased accordingly.
From the perspective of quarterly sales: the sales volume of gasoline in East China in the fourth quarter was 1.52 million tons, down 165%；Diesel sales were 1.96 million tons, down 9 percent from the previous month6%。The decline in sales volume has a lot to do with the weak demand in the middle and lower reaches of the market, as well as the corresponding decline in production. Specifically, in December, the gasoline sales volume of the East China sample was 54760,000 tons, 26 months from the previous month26%, i.e. 11390,000 tons, an average daily increase of 2219%；Diesel sales 66750,000 tons, 15 percent month-on-month17%, i.e. 8790,000 tons, with a daily average of **1146%。The refineries in the area have delivered gasoline and diesel to the main business for external procurement, but the overall quarterly sales volume of gasoline and diesel continued to decline due to the reduction of speculation.
Combined with the inventory: at the end of December, the gasoline inventory of the sample enterprises in East China was 980,000 tons, accounting for 14 of the gasoline storage capacity7%；Diesel stock 1470,000 tons, accounting for 20 percent of the diesel storage capacity65%。The inventory of sample enterprises in East China fell and the diesel fuel rose, the demand for diesel was sluggish in December, the pressure on refinery shipments increased, and the inventory accumulated slightly. In addition, diesel exports declined during the month, while gasoline exports increased, the digestion progress of terminal oil units was slow, and the overall diesel inventory of refineries increased slightly.
On the whole, the gasoline and diesel production and sales trends of independent refineries in East China are differentiated, gasoline demand is better than diesel, due to market demand problems, production and sales have fallen, and the inventory has also shown a trend of gasoline and diesel rising, which is consistent with the current market ** and demand, diesel sales are under pressure, and the inventory is higher than gasoline. Although there is some demand for replenishment in January, the overall trend is still not optimistic, but with the Spring Festival holiday approaching, gasoline is still supported, and diesel in January export plan to increase, gasoline and diesel inventory within a controllable range.