Belarus and Russia can be said to be the same people, or two peoples. The long history of these two people has witnessed the complex process of these two people from close alliance, to temporary estrangement, and then to re-close. Putin and Lukashenko, as leaders of the two countries, their mutual relations are like a political drama full of drama. Putin, Russia's strongman, is known for his firm and decisive style; Lukashenko, on the other hand, is known for his strong personality and independent political stance. The interaction between the two on the political stage has both tacit understanding and fierce differences.
This complex relationship is not just a matter of personal interaction, but also a reflection of the deep historical and cultural ties between the two countries. From the brotherhood of the Soviet era to the consideration of national interests after independence, the relationship between Russia and Belarus has undergone many major changes on the chessboard of international politics.
If we understand it from the perspective of the Chinese, we will not even think that Belarus and Russia are two peoples.
In terms of language, history, and cultural customs, they are like the difference between Northeast and Shaanxi people, Fujian and Guangdong people, and Jiangsu and Sichuan people.
If you want to talk about differences, sometimes you can't understand each other when you speak dialects, but dialects are basically born out of the same writing system, and they all speak Mandarin. If there is no way to use language as a rigid one, then the historical aspect is a better metaphor.
Do people in the Northeast feel that the Han Dynasty and the Tang Dynasty are foreign history? Will Jiangsu people think that Liu Guan and Zhang Zhuge Liang of Shu are foreign historical figures? Cantonese people eat rice instead of noodles, but do Cantonese people think that noodles are a foreign food like pizza?
The history of Belarus is equal to the history of Russia. If there is a difference, it is that the cultural system of Russia in history was more deeply influenced by the Mongol era, and Belarus felt that they were "led astray" by the barbarians, nothing more.
In this context, albeit for specific historical reasons, because of the turmoil of 1991, the collapse of the Soviet Union turned them into two countries. But Russia and Belarus have no basis for living separately.
Even after the collapse of the Soviet Union, they were separated, but the international situation, economic cooperation, and other factors forced them together. They have no family to live by.
At the end of the 90s, the reintegration of Russia and Belarus into a single state was put on the agenda. Although there were twists and turns, the merger plan was almost irreversible
The idea of the merger of Russia and Belarus has gone through three stages.
In fact, the Russian-Belarusian merger plan was first proposed by Lukashenko.
Lukashenko's reason for the merger of Russia and Belarus is nothing more than the statement that blood is thicker than water. But in fact, there are deeper political considerations behind it.
In Belarus, in fact, there is opposition to Lukashenkoti's merger. The reason is simple, who cares who after the merger? I'm a minister in Belarus, and after the merger, is it Russia dominant? That must be Moscow sending someone to take over my business, so what am I?
But Lukashenko doesn't care about this "position of power" - he has a higher profile, and he sees a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. He Lukashenko has a chance to become the best in Russia.
Yes, that's right, Lukashenko, he almost became a Russian ** back then.
At the end of the 90s, the power structure in Russia changed dramatically. Under the Yeltsin clique, Russia fell into the abyss, the economy collapsed, and popular discontent boiled. Yeltsin lost the hearts of the people.
On the contrary, Lukashenko did a good job in Belarus - Lukashenko managed to suppress the oligarchs, turned the tide in Belarus, and full privatization did not spread like in Russia, which was the best mixed among the former Soviet countries throughout the 90s.
Then, if Lukashenko participates in the election of the Russian **, he is definitely sure to win Yeltsin, a big victory.
Russians, will they mind Lukashenko's Belarusian origin? No, it's like Guangdong is led by a Sichuan person, do people think it's any wonder? It's not a violation of harmony at all!
But the premise is that Belarus and Russia must first merge into one country.
Therefore, Lukashenko single-handedly promoted the Russian-Belarusian alliance, and then began to frantically advocate the merger of Russia and Belarus. Many Russians have even begun to hope that they will simply choose Lukashenko in the future, and they will definitely do a better job than Yeltsin's bastard!
Then move on to the second stage. Around 2000, Lukashenko slammed on the brakes and shelved negotiations on the merger of Russia and Belarus.
Because of the halfway way to bite the gold - Putin took over Yeltsin's power and turned the tide and turned the tide. Since then, Lukashenko has not been interested in the Russian-Belarusian merger proposal.
In a short period of time, Putin led the old KGB, controlled the army, saved the economy, and won the hearts and minds of the people. Against this background, if it is necessary to hold an election, Lukashenko is not sure to win Putin.
At this time, Russia and Belarus merged, and Lukashenko could not do it well, and he would change from Belarus to a governor of Russia, and he couldn't get it.
As a result, Lukashenko, as a master driver, turned the wheel sharply and began to emphasize the independence of Belarus again.
However, when we say that Russia and Belarus have no basis for living separately - they are highly complementary and have common enemies.
On the one hand, Belarus and Russia have close economic and cultural ties, and Lukashenko cannot dismiss the exchanges between the two countries.
On the other hand, the Western camp of the United States is bent on killing Lukashenko- In the eyes of the United States and the West, Lukashenko is a person who stands for Russia, he is not as simple as a "pro-Russian faction", this guy is like a Russian, who has been talking about the merger of Russia and Belarus for so many years. Since 2000, the United States and the West have planned a number of color revolutions in Belarus in an attempt to overthrow Lukashenko. But they were all resolved by Lukashenko one by one.
These color revolutions, sometimes, are leveled by Lukashenko himself - Lukashenko's skills are not weak at all, but the stage of Belarus is too small, and he has little room to shine internationally.
Sometimes, Lukashenko has to ask Putin for help - it is true that he has skills, but Belarus is so big, the national strength is so small, it is not surprising to play with the Americans, win once or twice, but it is impossible to win all the time. Sooner or later, the Americans will be killed.
So, we entered the third stage. In 2020, Lukashenko decided to restart the process of merging Russia and Belarus, and in 2021 the merger plan was negotiated: the two countries first established confederation relations, and step by step broke down barriers in the system, economy, and culture to integrate into one. During this period, Belarus followed Russia's steps politically, diplomatically, militarily and listened to Russia's command. But Putin also respects the independence of Belarus and will not interfere in their domestic affairs.
In other words, Lukashenko has become a semi-independent "envoy" of Russia.
Putin and Lukashenko have successively signed a decree on the integration of the Union State, indicating that the two sides have taken another important step in the creation of the Union State. The two countries went through the trials of the Soviet Union together, and finally decided to become a family.
Of course, this merger process faces multiple challenges.
First, nationalist sentiments, or rather the nationalism of some people, play an important role. In fact, the Belarusian people do not oppose the merger plan. However, the bureaucracy in Belarus is not necessarily. I am now the Minister of Belarus, and after the merger, what level can I get mixed in?
Lukashenko is willing to be a moderation envoy, but he has to settle the current bureaucratic system in Belarus and gain their support. This is the first challenge.
Second, it is the strategy of the West. The strategy of the West is to dismember Russia, how can it still allow you to merge? However, the only way for the United States and the West is to make Lukashenko **. Replace them with their own people and mess up the merger plan. But for now, it seems that Lukashenko is still steady.
Under all circumstances, the eventual realization of the Russian-Belarusian merger may still be a long way off.
In the world, like Belarus and Russia, there are many cases where the same people are divided into two parts. Some of them don't mind separation, but some countries oppose separation.
Those who oppose the separation should also refer to the history of the merger of Russia and Belarus. The merger of Russia and Belarus is said to be combined, even if Lukashenko once shirked it, it will eventually have to be merged, and the root cause is: they have no basis for separation.
After separation, both sides have to mess up, it is better to unite together. It is necessary to create conditions where the two sides do not agree, so that if the other side is gone, you will be finished.